1. CLIMATE CHANGE AND DROUGHT MONITORING IN REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA IN THE XXI CENTURY Suzana Alcinova Monevska Silvana Stevkova Hydrometeorological Institute of Republic of Macedonia

2. Total area of 25,713 km2 Population of cca 2.5 mil. Length of the Macedonian Border in km Albania 191 Bulgaria 165 Greece 262 Serbia 232 Total 850 Republic of Macedonia

3. UN Framework Convention on Climate Change ratified on 4th December 1997 - The First NCCC- 2003 - The Second NCCC- 2008

4. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR MACEDONIA, REVIEW OF METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS, DOC. DR. KLEMEN BERGANT, UNIVERSITY OF NOVA GORICA, CENTRE FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, SLOVENIA General circulation models: model label, country of development, period for which the data were used, the approximate horizontal resolution of data As the simulations of future climate with GCMs are based on a number of emission scenarios, usually SRES A2 and B2, the local climate change projection were additionally scaled to other marker SRES emission scenarios (A1T, A1b, A1Fl, B1) CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR THE TERRITORY OF REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA IN THE SNCCC

5. Projected changes of average air temperature (°C) and precipitation (%) for Macedonia 2025205020752100 Low0,91,62,22,7 Mean1,01,92,93,8 High1,12,13,65,4 2025205020752100 Low-2-4-5 Mean-3-5-8-13 High-6-7-12-21 -based on direct GCM output interpolated to geographic location 21.5°E and 41.5°N with regard to the period 1990. Mean: average across different emission scenarios and different GCMs, Low/High: minimum/maximum across different scenarios averaged across different GCMs.

6. Deficiencies of direct GCM outputs only a rough description of expected climate change (mostly the changes of average conditions on the level of entire country). spatial and temporal variability of meteorological parameters and heterogeneous climate/ topography not considered can present a benchmark for more detailed methods for regional projection of future climate change

8. Regional projected changes of average air temperature (°C) Projected changes of average daily air temperature (°C) and precipitation (%) for central part of Macedonia under a combination of sub-Mediterranean and continental climate impacts (represented by locations Veles, Strumica, Skopje-Petrovec, Štip) and south-eastern part of Macedonia under the sub-Mediterranean climate impacts (represented by locations Gevgelija and Nov Dojran). WINTER SPRING SUMMER AUTUMN ANNUAL 2025 2050 2075 2100 T1.02.33.24.31.12.13.14.31.42.645.41.01.83.03.91.12.23.34.5 RR012-5-7-11-14-6-11-18-23-6-11-17-3-6-9-13 T1.02.12.93.81.12.13.14.31.52.94.56.01.12.03.34.31.22.33.44.6 RR-20-3-6-8-13-17-4-9-14-191-4-9-14-3-5-9-12

9. Projected changes of average annual air temperature based on direct GCM output (2050) for different regions Mean: average across different emission scenarios and different GCMs, Low/High: minimum/maximum across different scenarios averaged across different GCMs 2.2°C (1.9-2.5) 2.3°C (2.0-2.6) 2.6°C (2.3-3.0) 2.5°C(2.2-2.9) 1.9°C(1.7-2.2) 2.6°C (2.3-3.0) 2.2°C (2.0-2.6)

10. Projected changes of average annual air temperature based on direct GCM output (2100) for different regions 4.5°C (3.1-6.3) 4.6°C (3.2-6.5) 5.3°C (3.7-7.4) 5.1°C(3.6-7.2) 3.9°C(2.7-5.5) 5.3°C (3.7-7.4) 4.6°C (3.2-6.4)

11. -6% (-3 to-8) -3% (-1 to-5) -3% (0 to-5) -5% (-3 to-8) -5% (-1 to-7) -3% (-1 to-5) -5% (-2 to-7) Projected changes of annual precipitation based on direct GCM output (2050) for different regions

12. -13% (-6 to-21) -8% (-2 to-15) -8% (-2 to-14) -13% (-6 to-21) -12% (-5 to-20) -8% (-2 to-15) -4% (-10 to-17) Projected changes of annual precipitation based on direct GCM output (2100) for different regions

13. Projected global averaged surface warming at the end of the 21st century and examples of some projected regional impacts (Europe) (IPCC AR4) …. In Southern Europe, climate change is projected to worsen conditions (high temperatures and drought) in a region already vulnerable to climate variability, and to reduce water availability, hydropower potential, summer tourism and, in general, crop productivity…. …. high confidence that many semi-arid areas (e.g. Mediterranean basin) will suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change…

14. Projected Change in Rain-fed Maize and Wheat Yields in 2050 Compared with Present

15. 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 Vardar 100 92.4 88.6 85.6 81.8 Treska 100 97.6 96.6 95.2 93.0 Bregalnica 100 90.0 83.9 80.7 76.2 Model predictions for annual discharges for 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100

16. Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe – DMCSEE South East Europe Program Aim of the project: improve drought preparedness and help to reduce drought impacts Co-funded by the European Union and the partner countries 2009-2011, 2.2 M EUR 15 institutes from 9 countries (Slovenia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Greece, Croatia,Serbia, Montenegro, FYROM, Albania) Lead partner: Environmental Agency of Slovenia Hydrometeorological Service of Republic of Macedonia joined the project in December 2010 Web: www.dmcsee.org

17. Average Palfai drought index (PaDI) 1971-2000

18. Projected Palfai drought index (PaDI) 2100

19. Standard Precipitation Index SPI12 (2001) SPICategory > 2.0Extremely wet 1.5- 2.0Severely wet 1.0- 1.5Moderately wet -1.0- 1.0Near normal -1.0- -1.5Moderately dry -1.5- -2.0Severely dry < -2.0Extremely dry

20. Conclusions Different climatic regions of Macedonia will respond slightly different on large scale climate changes Need for further investigations for critical review of present results with awareness of all the associated uncertainties Drought management policies and tools are necessary for adaptation measures International cooperation and sharing knowledge

21. Thanks for your attention www.meteo.gov.mk E-mail: smonevska@meteo.gov.mksmonevska@meteo.gov.mk silvanas@meteo.gov.mk