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E. C. Meyers, G. M. McFarquhar, B. F. Jewett, S. W. Nesbitt University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 11 May 2010 Vertical Velocity and Microphysical Distributions Related to the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Dennis (2005) E N W S Image Science and Analysis Laboratory, NASA-Johnson Space Center. "The Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth.” http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/scripts/sseop/photo.pl?mission=ISS011&roll=E&frame=10221
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E N W S Image Science and Analysis Laboratory, NASA-Johnson Space Center. "The Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth.” http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/scripts/sseop/photo.pl?mission=ISS011&roll=E&frame=10216
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Guiding Questions How do such isolated, inner-core, most- intense vertical velocities (i.e., convective bursts) cause and/or respond to rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones?
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Guiding Questions How do such isolated, inner-core, most- intense vertical velocities (i.e., convective bursts) cause and/or respond to rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones? What statistics can be gathered from a high- resolution simulation regarding convective bursts’ distributions, magnitudes, vertical structures, durations, proximities to the vortex center, and trends as precursors to RI?
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Limited understanding of how RI may relate to convective bursts – 3-D structure – Timing – Distributions of latent heat Motivation
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Limited understanding of how RI may relate to convective bursts – 3-D structure – Timing – Distributions of latent heat Need to statistically characterize the morphology of these isolated, intense vertical velocities and associated microphysics within observational voids Motivation
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WRF Configuration Horizontal… 27-km 9-km 3-km 1-km d01 d02 d03 d04 736 784
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WRF Configuration Vertical…
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Dennis Track 00Z 06 July 2005 00Z 07 July 2005 00Z 08 July 2005
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*10 min * Intensity
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*10 min * Intensity -19 hPa (6 h) -1
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*10 min * Intensity
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* * *10 min +36 kts (6 h) -1
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14:20Z-14:32Z 09 July 2005 [dBZ] [m s -1 ] 14:45Z-15:03Z 09 July 2005 Guimond et al. (2010, JAS) Are column- confined, averaged, and low-to-mid- level interpretations valid? Convective Bursts?
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10-min 2-min
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10-min 2-min
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CFAD 9 hours before RI 9 hours during RI Column Max Reflectivity s
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9 hours before RI 9 hours during RI during – before RI CFAD Difference
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hourly 99.9 th percentile w [m s -1 ]
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Interpretation of RI depends on: – Interval examined – ∆p min or ∆|v 10-m, max | perspective Discrete vertical level statistics provide better identification of convective bursts than column averages or thresholds Outlier (e.g., 99.9 th percentile) w better indicators of RI than averages – Precursor to RI at upper levels (e.g., 14 km) – Continual broadening and convergence toward TC center CONCLUSIONS
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CONCLUSIONS, CONT’D Outlier (e.g., 99.9 th percentile) w at lower levels (e.g., 6 km), however, increase only after onset of and during RI Manifested as an increase in latent heating Precursor w have unnoticeable impact on latent heating – Vertical structure – Thresholds for definition Implications of these upper-level, rapidly accelerating updrafts for RI?
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Acknowledgements AMS Graduate Fellowship, Earth Science Div. of the Science Mission Directorate NASA Headquarters under the NESSF Program NASA Hurricane Science Program – Grant NNX09AB82G NOAA/GFDL WRF Modeling Community TeraGrid Seemingly endless list of students, staff, and faculty at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and beyond THANK YOU! Boston.com “Hurricanes, as seen from orbit” http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2008/09/hurricanes_as_seen_from_orbit.html
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*LH, Abe
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< -80
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Precursor to RI? Colin et al. (2009, Nature Geosci.)
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*history interval accumulation ≤ 5 > 3 > 15
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≤ 0 > -2 < -10 *instantaneous, @ output
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≤ 0 > -60 < -540
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> 1.0 < 5.0 > 30.0 < 40.0
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2030Z7th
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2036Z7th
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2042Z7th
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2048Z7th
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2054Z7th
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2100Z7th
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Observed onset of RI
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Every 6 hours from contour analysis of simulation
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onset of simulated 24-hour period during which ∆p min ≤ -42 hPa Every 3 hours from contour analysis of simulation
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onset of simulated 24-hour period during which ∆|v 10-m, max contour | ≥ +30 knots Every 6 hours from contour analysis of simulation
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onset of simulated 24-hour period during which ∆|v 10-m, max contour | ≥ +30 knots Every 3 hours from contour analysis of simulation
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hourly 99.9 th percentile w [m s -1 ]
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Zhu and Zhang (2006, JAS) Li and Pu (2008, MWR) Relation to Microphysics only warm rain processes; hmmm… LI AND PU MARCH 2008 WSM3 WSM5 WSM6 Increasing inclusion of mixed-phase proc. graupel support Wang (2002)
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Rogers (2010, JAS)
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MEAN, convective regions
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72.9°W 71.6°W 15.6°N 16.7°N (|V 10-m | ≥ 30 knots) contoured (interval = 5 knots) in black 18:00Z 06 July 2005
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What About the Vertical?
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> 35 < 40 > 15 < 20
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< 364 > 372 < 374
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> 370 < 374 > 358 < 362
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