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NYSSA Investment Research Challenge. Recommendation: Buy at $29.92 Close as of 4/29/07 NAV is $48 per share – 57% upside from current price At 11 times.

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Presentation on theme: "NYSSA Investment Research Challenge. Recommendation: Buy at $29.92 Close as of 4/29/07 NAV is $48 per share – 57% upside from current price At 11 times."— Presentation transcript:

1 NYSSA Investment Research Challenge

2 Recommendation: Buy at $29.92 Close as of 4/29/07 NAV is $48 per share – 57% upside from current price At 11 times FFO, WPC is priced like a capital intensive REIT Excellent potential for WPC to expand at a 35% growth rate in Europe Predictable, recurring fees from retail investors in managed funds Non-executive chairman holds 30% of the shares. Price Weighted Target : $38 2

3 Company Overview 3 Owned Commercial Real Estate WPC Asset Management 112 tenants 197 properties AUM ($B)

4 Tenant Surveys and Market Research Survey of Regional Commercial Real Estate Brokerage Managers Analyzed Credit Ratings of All 370 Carey Tenants Interviews with Carey Tenants Third Party Market Research - Real Capital Analytics, Cap Rates - NAREIT ReitWatch - Fitch Ratings 2008 REIT Scorecard - King Sturge 2008 European Market Outlook - CB Richard Ellis Global Market Rents - S&P/GRE Commercial Real Estate Indices Methodology - Jones Lang LaSalle IP 4

5 Valuation Overview 5 Net Asset Value Sum-of-Parts Dividend Discount Model

6 Deep Discount to NAV WPC’s stock is substantially undervalued relative to NAV Based on a 6.6% cap rate, WPC’s properties are worth $48/share Comparable REITS are trading at a 16% discount to NAV Large margin of safety in WPC’s valuation 6 Sources: Real Capital Analytics; Rutgers Business team analysis

7 Trades like a REIT, but it’s not 7 WPC FFO/Share -$2.87 Multiple - 10.5x $36 Source: Rutgers Business team analysis Real Estate Ownership FFO/Share -$1.51 Multiple - 10.7x $16.17 Investment Management EPS -$1.29 Multiple - 15.8x $20.34 Sum-of-the-Parts

8 Valuation Overview 8 Net Asset Value $38 Sum-of-Parts Dividend Discount Model $40 $36 25% 50% 25% Source: Rutgers Business team analysis

9 European Growth Opportunities 9 Owner Occupied Private/Public 2002 – US Commercial Real Estate 2002 – European Commercial Real Estate Source: “European Real Estate Ownership Structures,“ Jones Lang LaSalle, April 2002

10 E Carey’s Investment Volume – Shift to Europe 10 Sources: WPC-Annual Reports, Rutgers Business team forecasts E

11 Pending Changes in French Legislation “ Loi Raffarin” 11 Stimulate new construction and increase demand for real estate financing Well positioned with strategic partners to capitalize on growth

12 High Return Investment Management Business Pre-Tax ROE of 37% $8.4 billion in AUM Customers (managed fund investors) are locked in for ten years Historical returns to fund investors of 11.6% WPC is raising fees 12 Source: WPC Annual Reports

13 Potential External Catalysts Wm. P. Carey, Founder –Non-executive chairman 30%+ ownership Potential acquisition target –Unlocking value –$1.2 billion market cap 13 Source: WPC Annual Reports

14 Investment Risks – US Credit Crunch Turbulent Credit Markets 14 Underleveraged Low Historical Default Risk Limited Obligations Attractive Credit Facility CMBX – BBB Index Source: Markit

15 Investment Risks – Funding New Deals Ability to Raise Capital ? 15 Dry Powder ($500 M) Yield Starved Retail Investors Source: CPA-14, CPA-15 & CPA-16 Annual Reports

16 Recent Developments 16 New property acquisitions - Berry Plastics ($87M) - Best Brands ($50M) - Mantsinen Group ($18M) New Hotel REIT - Watermark Capital partnership - $2-3 per share value over 3 years

17 S umm ary Deep Discount to NAV Trades like a REIT, but misunderstood Growth Opportunity in Europe Customers locked in for 10 years Potential to be acquired Compelling Buy 17

18 Appendices Slide 19 - Comps- Real Estate Management Slide 20 - Comps- Investment Management Slide 21- Sum-of-the-Parts I Slide 22- Sum of Parts II Slide 23- DDM Slide 24- NAV Slide 25- CPA Fee Increase Impact Slide 26- Forecasted Acquisitions Slide 27- Sale-Leaseback Structure Slide 28- Risk, Currency Slide 29- Risk, Inflation Slide 30- Risk, Tenant Defaults Slide 31- Credit Rating Slide 32- Geographic & Sector Analysis Slide 33 - WPC – Industry Positioning – Pie Charts Slide 34 – Hotel UPREIT- Impact on EPS 18

19 Comparab le s – Real Estate Management 19 Source: Company Documents, Yahoo!Finance, Student Estimates

20 Comparab le s – Investment Management 20 Source: Company Documents, Yahoo!Finance, Student Estimates

21 Valuation – Sum-of-the-Parts Real Estate Ownership 21

22 22 Valuation – Sum-of-the-Parts Investment Management

23 Valuation – DDM Dividend Discount Model 23

24 Valuation – NAV Net Asset Value 24

25 CPA Fee Increase Impact 25

26 Forecasted Acquisitions 26

27 27 Property Trustee - private equity - investment bankers - corporations BANK $ Sale – Leaseback Str uctu re $ Equity

28 Additional Risk Euro at historical highs Increased exposure to European currency Hedge currency exposure by borrowing in Euros Increased leverage in Europe 28 Currency Fluctuations

29 Additional Risk 29 Inflation WPC leases include CPI escalators Long-term loans paid back in deflated dollars Central banks pumping money into the system

30 Additional Risk 30 Tenant Defaults Mission critical properties Hedge risk with regional and sector diversification Tenant credit ratings Long-term leases

31 Tenant Credit Ratings 31 Source: www.Standardandpoors.com Average Rating of REITs BB+ 11.1 Average Rating of WPC(owned) BBB 9.1 Average Rating European Tenant A+ 5.4 CPA-14

32 Geographic & Sector Analysis 32 Source: 2007 WPC Financial Reports

33 33 WPC- Industry Positioning

34 New Hotel UPREIT – Impact on EPS 34


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