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Published byBonnie Henry Modified over 9 years ago
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NYSSA Investment Research Challenge
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Recommendation: Buy at $29.92 Close as of 4/29/07 NAV is $48 per share – 57% upside from current price At 11 times FFO, WPC is priced like a capital intensive REIT Excellent potential for WPC to expand at a 35% growth rate in Europe Predictable, recurring fees from retail investors in managed funds Non-executive chairman holds 30% of the shares. Price Weighted Target : $38 2
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Company Overview 3 Owned Commercial Real Estate WPC Asset Management 112 tenants 197 properties AUM ($B)
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Tenant Surveys and Market Research Survey of Regional Commercial Real Estate Brokerage Managers Analyzed Credit Ratings of All 370 Carey Tenants Interviews with Carey Tenants Third Party Market Research - Real Capital Analytics, Cap Rates - NAREIT ReitWatch - Fitch Ratings 2008 REIT Scorecard - King Sturge 2008 European Market Outlook - CB Richard Ellis Global Market Rents - S&P/GRE Commercial Real Estate Indices Methodology - Jones Lang LaSalle IP 4
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Valuation Overview 5 Net Asset Value Sum-of-Parts Dividend Discount Model
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Deep Discount to NAV WPC’s stock is substantially undervalued relative to NAV Based on a 6.6% cap rate, WPC’s properties are worth $48/share Comparable REITS are trading at a 16% discount to NAV Large margin of safety in WPC’s valuation 6 Sources: Real Capital Analytics; Rutgers Business team analysis
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Trades like a REIT, but it’s not 7 WPC FFO/Share -$2.87 Multiple - 10.5x $36 Source: Rutgers Business team analysis Real Estate Ownership FFO/Share -$1.51 Multiple - 10.7x $16.17 Investment Management EPS -$1.29 Multiple - 15.8x $20.34 Sum-of-the-Parts
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Valuation Overview 8 Net Asset Value $38 Sum-of-Parts Dividend Discount Model $40 $36 25% 50% 25% Source: Rutgers Business team analysis
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European Growth Opportunities 9 Owner Occupied Private/Public 2002 – US Commercial Real Estate 2002 – European Commercial Real Estate Source: “European Real Estate Ownership Structures,“ Jones Lang LaSalle, April 2002
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E Carey’s Investment Volume – Shift to Europe 10 Sources: WPC-Annual Reports, Rutgers Business team forecasts E
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Pending Changes in French Legislation “ Loi Raffarin” 11 Stimulate new construction and increase demand for real estate financing Well positioned with strategic partners to capitalize on growth
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High Return Investment Management Business Pre-Tax ROE of 37% $8.4 billion in AUM Customers (managed fund investors) are locked in for ten years Historical returns to fund investors of 11.6% WPC is raising fees 12 Source: WPC Annual Reports
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Potential External Catalysts Wm. P. Carey, Founder –Non-executive chairman 30%+ ownership Potential acquisition target –Unlocking value –$1.2 billion market cap 13 Source: WPC Annual Reports
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Investment Risks – US Credit Crunch Turbulent Credit Markets 14 Underleveraged Low Historical Default Risk Limited Obligations Attractive Credit Facility CMBX – BBB Index Source: Markit
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Investment Risks – Funding New Deals Ability to Raise Capital ? 15 Dry Powder ($500 M) Yield Starved Retail Investors Source: CPA-14, CPA-15 & CPA-16 Annual Reports
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Recent Developments 16 New property acquisitions - Berry Plastics ($87M) - Best Brands ($50M) - Mantsinen Group ($18M) New Hotel REIT - Watermark Capital partnership - $2-3 per share value over 3 years
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S umm ary Deep Discount to NAV Trades like a REIT, but misunderstood Growth Opportunity in Europe Customers locked in for 10 years Potential to be acquired Compelling Buy 17
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Appendices Slide 19 - Comps- Real Estate Management Slide 20 - Comps- Investment Management Slide 21- Sum-of-the-Parts I Slide 22- Sum of Parts II Slide 23- DDM Slide 24- NAV Slide 25- CPA Fee Increase Impact Slide 26- Forecasted Acquisitions Slide 27- Sale-Leaseback Structure Slide 28- Risk, Currency Slide 29- Risk, Inflation Slide 30- Risk, Tenant Defaults Slide 31- Credit Rating Slide 32- Geographic & Sector Analysis Slide 33 - WPC – Industry Positioning – Pie Charts Slide 34 – Hotel UPREIT- Impact on EPS 18
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Comparab le s – Real Estate Management 19 Source: Company Documents, Yahoo!Finance, Student Estimates
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Comparab le s – Investment Management 20 Source: Company Documents, Yahoo!Finance, Student Estimates
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Valuation – Sum-of-the-Parts Real Estate Ownership 21
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22 Valuation – Sum-of-the-Parts Investment Management
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Valuation – DDM Dividend Discount Model 23
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Valuation – NAV Net Asset Value 24
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CPA Fee Increase Impact 25
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Forecasted Acquisitions 26
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27 Property Trustee - private equity - investment bankers - corporations BANK $ Sale – Leaseback Str uctu re $ Equity
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Additional Risk Euro at historical highs Increased exposure to European currency Hedge currency exposure by borrowing in Euros Increased leverage in Europe 28 Currency Fluctuations
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Additional Risk 29 Inflation WPC leases include CPI escalators Long-term loans paid back in deflated dollars Central banks pumping money into the system
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Additional Risk 30 Tenant Defaults Mission critical properties Hedge risk with regional and sector diversification Tenant credit ratings Long-term leases
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Tenant Credit Ratings 31 Source: www.Standardandpoors.com Average Rating of REITs BB+ 11.1 Average Rating of WPC(owned) BBB 9.1 Average Rating European Tenant A+ 5.4 CPA-14
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Geographic & Sector Analysis 32 Source: 2007 WPC Financial Reports
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33 WPC- Industry Positioning
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New Hotel UPREIT – Impact on EPS 34
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