1. Episode 3 / CAATS II joint dissemination event Combining Techniques: Expert Groups, Fast-Time Simulation and Prototyping Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event Hugo de Jonge NLR Episode 3 Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009

2. Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event 2 Overview (Some) applied techniques and their benefits  Expert Groups  FTS  Prototyping Combining these techniques Relationship to exercises in Episode 3 Example results Experience and value of combining techniques

3. Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event 3 Applied techniques and benefits Expert Group  To discuss high-level and conceptual ideas  Operational aspects and feasibility  Benefits, priorities, blocking points  Agreement, operational participation and portability  The role of different experiments - But no “validated” agreements Fast-Time Simulation (FTS)  Wide area: Airport, Region, ECAC-wide  Large coverage: 24 hours, 10.000nds of flights  Quantification, with focus on: Capacity and Efficiency  Reproducible - But simple modelling, adopting validated ops mechanisms

4. Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event 4 Applied techniques and benefits Prototyping  Human in the loop, small-scale  Focus on feasibility, and operational acceptance  Good perception of workload, and procedural details  Good modelling of detailed procedures But: - Simulation is non-deterministic and gives low statistics - Simulation is small-scale and it is difficult to address a complete scenario

5. Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event 5 Combining these techniques Relevant results by iteration: Ideas suggestions acceptability Ideas suggestions acceptability Large-scale demo/ quantified benefits Concept Large-scale operationsOperations in detail Operational feasibility/ clarification of role of human in the loop Filtering a scenario in detail giving support in context of operations (e.g. full TMA + airport to 1 runway, 2 sectors) Being specific on how to model a procedure in details of its operational context, (e.g. time and effort to perform datalink exchange) Expert Group PrototypingFTS

6. Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event 6 In Episode 3 Examples of combining techniques in Episode 3:  ECAC-wide: Macro model to accept FTS and Prototyping results and to extrapolate results on ECAC- wide applicability  Support to Gaming: Airport Gaming and use of ECAC- wide model to feed Gaming with solutions solving bottlenecks by DCB  En-route - TMA coupling: Prototyping of ATM En-route control in support of managed arrival flows, and fast- time simulation of Multi-Airport flows from en-route (200NM out) to landing

7. Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event 7 Expert Group, example Feeding FTS:  By Story Board, analysing critical parts of concept  By dimensioning the operations in time and space  By assumptions Assumptions:  Airspace utilisation: With low variability there is control on the amount of airspace needed to accomplish the sequencing, without......  Capacity: Without ensured low variability there will be dips in demand resulting in loss of capacity...... ......

8. Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event 8 Fast-Time Simulation, example FTS:  24-hours scenarios, comparing quite a lot of conditions  Quantitative results  Modelling, simulating and measuring

9. Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event 9 Prototyping, example Prototyping:  1-2 hours scenario, studying operations in detail  results on feasibility of ATM support tools  results on feasibility Human Machine Interface (HMI)  results on feasibility of operational procedures  detailed scenario, perform simulation, analyse results

10. Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event 10 Feed-back, FTS example FTS applying prototyping results:  Advanced CDA procedure (ACDA)  Feasibility of merge procedure  Feasibility of control procedures and separation  Sequencing accuracy at Controlled Time of Arrival (CTA) FTS outputs:  Quantitative results

11. Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event 11 Conclusions Expert Group:  New valuable experience with low effort and involvement: -High diversity of experts -Intensive discussions and concrete -Inputs in support of experiments -Support portability of concept, experiments and results FTS, successful in: -Large-scale simulations -Quantified benefits under “ideal” conditions (upper-bound values) -Assessment of acceptance of achievable benefits (e.g. fuel gains) Prototyping, successful in: -Human-in-the-loop, small-scale simulations -Assessment of acceptance of operational procedures (e.g. workload and procedures)

12. Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event 12 Thank you, any questions?