1. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Welcome Bienvenidos Presenter:Stacy Harwood Scenario Planning What do you think might happen in Los Llanos and Cañitas in the future? Planificación de Escenarios ¿Qué piensan que puede pasar en el futuro en Los Llanos y Cañitas? Symposium June 27, 2003 Simposio 27 de junio de 2003

2. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Presentation Outline Esquema de la Presentación Presenter: Yelias Bender I.Project Overview and Introduction / II.Study Area / III.Inventory and Analysis / IV.Projected Growth and Implications / V.Introduction to Scenarios Building / VI.Next Steps /

3. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Presentation Outline Esquema de la Presentación Presenter: Marisa Zapata I.Project Overview and Introduction / II.Study Area / III.Inventory and Analysis / IV.Projected Growth and Implications / V.Introduction to Scenarios Building / VI.Next Steps /

4. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Introduction Introducción Presenter: Marisa Zapata Scenario planning basics/ Why scenario planning in monteverde/ Project context/ Project goals/ Project objectives/ Identifying assumptions and uncertainties (inventory of data}/ Scenarios Developed Project Assumptions

5. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Scenario Planning Basics Introduction Basicos de plan de escenario Introducción Scenario planning is the process of creating “reasonably plausible, but structurally different” outcomes for the future * Scenario planning helps communities conceptualize how their future may unfold under a given set of criteria Scenario building versus visioning * Heijden, as quoted in Avin and Dembner Presenter: Marisa

6. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Undergoing significant change with uncertain outcomes Sufre cambios significativos con resultados inciertos Community interest in long term planning for the region Comunidad interesada en planificación a largo plazo Diversity of values and views about the future Diversidad en valores y visiones del futuro Why scenario planning in Monteverde Zone? ¿Por que la planificación de escenarios en Monteverde? Introduction Introducción Presenter: Marisa Zapata

7. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Project Context Introduction Contexto de Proyecto Introducción Scenario Planning in the Monteverde Zone 2001: Monteverde, Cerro Plano 2002: Santa Elena 2003: Los Llanos, Cañitas 2004: San Luis, La Lindora … Presenter: Marisa Zapata

8. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Presenter: Marisa Zapata Project Goals Introduction Metas del ProyectoIntroducción To visualize alternative futures for land-use development in Los Llanos & Cañitas. Para visualizar futuros alternativos para el desarrollo del uso de la tierra en Los Llanos & Cañitas. To develop design guidelines for conservation and development in the Monteverde Region over the next few years. Para desarrollar el diseño de directrices de conservación y desarrollo para la región de Monteverde para los próximos años.

9. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Project Objectives Introduction Objectivos del ProyectoIntroducción Presenter: Marisa Zapata To develop an understanding of the history of land-use development in Los Llanos & Cañitas. Para desarrollar una comprensión de la historia del desarrollo del uso de la tierra en Los Llanos & Cañitas. To generate a map of current conditions of the study area using existing resources and group obeservations and measurements Para producir un mapa de las condiciones actuales de parte de la zona a través del uso de los mapas existentes, fotografías aéreas, observaciones desde el suelo y medidas, planos, etc. To develop alternative scenarios for Los Llanos & Cañitas -- using history of development and current conditions as the basis for future projections. Para desarrollar escenarios alternativos para Los Llanos & Cañitas -- usando la historia del desarrollo y las condiciones actuales como base para las proyecciones futuras.

10. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Inventory of Data Introduction Inventario del Proyecto Introducción Research and Documentation Patterns of Development & Land-use Investigación y Documentación de los Patrones de Desarrollo Historic maps and Interviews with Local Leaders and Organizations about Development History Mapas históricos y entrevistas a líderes locales y organizaciones Projections of Structures and Population for 2010 and 2020 Proyecciones de estructuras y población para el 2010 y el 2020 Traffic Study Conteo de tráfico Presenter: Marisa Zapata

11. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Scenarios Developed Introduction Escenarios Desarrollados Introducción Scenario 1: Business as Usual Scenario 2: Ecotourism and Conservation Scenario 3: Diversification of Economic Base and Community Life Presenter: Marisa Zapata

12. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Project Assumptions Introduction Suposiciones del ProyectoIntroducción Continued population growth (migration and natural increase) Crecimiento poblacional continuo (inmigración y crecimiento natural) Tourism remains main economic engine of the region El turismo seguirá siendo el motor de la economía regional Continued efforts at conservation Continuarán los esfuerzos por la conservación Paving of the road and expansion of public transportation system Se pavimentará el camino y se ampliará el transporte público Increasing local government capacity Se incrementará la capacidad de gobierno local Presenter: Marisa Zapata

13. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Presentation Outline Esquema de la Presentación Presenter: Yelias Bender I.Project Overview and Introduction / II.Study Area / III.Inventory and Analysis / IV.Projected Growth and Implications / V.Introduction to Scenarios Building / VI.Next Steps /

14. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Community Background Study Area Presenter: Jane Padelford

15. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Presenter: Jane Padelford Study Area Area del Estudio Political Context

16. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Community Background Study Area Cañitas, Guanacaste Cañitas was founded in the 1920’s by Don Rafael Trejos Electricity and running water came to Cañitas in 1950. At this time there were two dairy fincas. The community raised funds to found the first school in 1967. Currently the community is building a community center. Presenter: Jane Padelford

17. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Community Background Study Area Los Llanos, Puntarenas The first developments in Los Llanos began in 1982, when two dairy farms existed. The school was founded in 1991, through funds and donations by local residents. The Bellbird Conservation Center was founded to protect critical habitat. The first tourism, a riding stable, arrived in 2000. Many housing developments have been built in the last 4 years, primarily along the main roads. Presenter: Jane Padelford

18. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Environment Study Area Presenter: Yelias Bender PURPOSE To provide a context for physical environment To help assess sustainability and conservation in broader context METHODOLOGY Cartography Interviews

19. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Environment Study Area Presenter: Yelias Bender

20. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Environment Study Area Presenter: Yelias Bender

21. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Environment Study Area Presenter: Yelias Bender

22. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Environment Presenter: Yelias Bender Study Area

23. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Environment Presenter: Yelias Bender Study Area

24. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Environment Presenter: Yelias Bender Study Area

25. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Environment Presenter: Yelias Bender Study Area

26. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Environment Presenter: Yelias Bender Study Area

27. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Environment Study Area Presenter: Yelias Bender

28. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Presentation Outline Esquema de la Presentación Presenter: Yelias Bender I.Project Overview and Introduction / II.Study Area / III.Inventory and Analysis / IV.Projected Growth and Implications / V.Introduction to Scenarios Building / VI.Next Steps /

29. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Outline of Inventory and Analysis Demographics and Community Attitudes Mapping Los Llanos and Cañitas Traffic Study Development Patterns Presenter: Yelias Bender

30. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Demographics and Community Attitudes in the Monteverde Zone Selective Results from the MVI Household Survey Demographics Demográficos Inventory and Analysis Inventario y Análisis Presenter: Kathleen & Marisa

31. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Purpose To better understand the social and economic situation in the Monteverde Zone To compare the socio-economic indicators and resident attitudes of Cañitas and Los Llanos with the rest of the region To gather information that will help develop accurate scenarios Presenter: KathleenWilson Inventory and Analysis Inventario y Análisis Demographics Demográficos

32. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Methodology: Create summary statistics with selective variables from the MVI Household Survey –Comparison of means and frequencies by community. About the survey: –Sponsored by the Monteverde Institute –Door-to-door survey from August and September 2002 –Open and closed-ended questions –532 households and 93 tourist businesses surveyed –74% of respondents were women, 26% men Presenter: Kathleen Wilson Inventory and Analysis Inventario y Análisis Demographics Demográficos

33. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Basic Household Characteristics Presenter: Kathleen Wilson Inventory and Analysis Inventario y Análisis Demographics Demográficos

34. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Basic Household Characteristics Presenter: Kathleen Wilson Inventory and Analysis Inventario y Análisis Demographics Demográficos

35. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario In Zone Since Birth Born Outside the Zone Same Community Different Community Santa Elena 27.97.764.5 Los Llanos 1728.354.7 Cañitas 33.39.157.6 Total Zone 29.414.156.7 Residents’ Place of Birth (as a % of the total community) Presenter: Kathleen Wilson Inventory and Analysis Inventario y Análisis Demographics Demográficos

36. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Santa Elena Cerro Plano Monte Verde Cañitas Los LlanosZone Roads736467828066 Health Care23 29301321 Recreation191839243423 Attitudes about Services (% responding “not adequate”) Presenter: Kathleen Wilson Inventory and Analysis Inventario y Análisis Demographics Demográficos

37. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Employment in the MV Zone: 532 Households in sample Average Household Size = 4.02 Total Number of People Represented = 2,139 Average # of Workers per Household = 2.07 Total of Workers Represented = 1,101 Total Number of Jobs Represented = 1,256 Average Number of Jobs per Worker = 1.14 Presenter: Marisa Zapata Inventory and Analysis Inventario y Análisis Demographics Demográficos

38. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Presenter: Marisa Zapata Inventory and Analysis Inventario y Análisis Demographics Demográficos Artesania La Familia Vargas SE ¢ 85,000* Lechería MV ¢45,000* SE ¢75,000* Ama de casa Artesanía *Payment per month A working family in Monteverde

39. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario 45% work in Los Llanos Monteverde Cerro Plano Santa Elena Los Llanos Cañitas 14% 7% 26% 15%14% 6% 51% work in Cañitas Other 3% 8% Where do residents of Cañitas & Los Llanos go to work? Presenter: Marisa Zapata Inventory and Analysis Inventario y Análisis Demographics Demográficos

40. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Next Steps: Explore additional variables in the survey –Occupational status –Income and distribution of wealth in the region –Year-round versus seasonal work –Educational attainment and relation to economic opportunity Consider how socio-economic indicators may or may not change in the future Presenter: Kathleen Wilson Inventory and Analysis Inventario y Análisis Demographics Demográficos

41. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Mapping Los Llanos & Cañitas Inventory and Analysis Dibujando Los Llanos y Cañitas Inventario y Análisis Presenter: Brian Gillette

42. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Purpose / Propósito To inventory the existing land-use and development patterns in Los Llanos and Cañitas To create a GIS data base of existing conditions To project future grown based on current trends Mapping Los Llanos & Cañitas Inventory and Analysis Dibujando Los Llanos y Cañitas Inventario y Análisis Presenter: Brian Gillette

43. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Methodology: Major roads and streams based on aerial and past SF maps Structures and secondary roads/driveways based on physical inspection and photography Mapping Los Llanos & Cañitas Inventory and Analysis Dibujando Los Llanos y Cañitas Inventario y Análisis Presenter: Brian Gillette

44. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Regional Map Mapa de la Zona Inventory and Analysis Inventario y Análisis Presenter: Brian Gillette

45. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Focus Map Mapa del foco Inventory and Analysis Inventario y Análisis Presenter: Brian Gillette

46. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Centers of Community Mapa de los centros del communidad Inventory and Analysis Inventario y Análisis Presenter: Brian Gillette

47. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Institutions Mapa de los instituciónes Inventory and Analysis Inventario y Análisis Presenter: Brian Gillette

48. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Commercial Maps Mapa del comercial Mapas Presenter: Brian Gillette

49. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Residential Mapa residencial Inventory and Analysis Inventario y Análisis Presenter: Brian Gillette

50. Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Summary table Tabla Sumario Structures by Community (2001-2003) ResidentialCommercialInstitutionalOtherTotal Cañitas5056263 Los Llanos178522187 Santa Elena404962116537 Cerro Plano *14186142243 Monteverde14648713214 Total91924050351244 * from 2001 scenario planning report Inventory and Analysis Inventario y Análisis Presenter: Brian Gillette