1. Navy Earth System Prediction Capability Current and Future from THORPEX Perspective Melinda Peng Marine Meteorology Division THORPEX Planning Meeting June 5-6 2015

2. NAVY RESEARCH FOCUS AREA 1. Assure Access to the Maritime Battlespace Vision: Assure access to the global ocean and littoral reaches and hold strategic and tactical targets at risk. Sense and predict environmental properties in the global ocean and littorals to support tactical and strategic planning and operations. Improve operational performance by adapting systems to the current and evolving environment.

3. The METOC needs address the requirement for generating timely and accurate forecasts of the earth environment through the application of accurate and efficient numerical weather prediction systems 6.1 6.2 6.3/6.4 Ops Basic Researc h Advanced Developm ent Demonstratio n/ Validation Implementati on Exploratory Development Navy Science & Technology Vision Pursue revolutionary, game-changing capabilities for Naval forces of the future, Mature and transition S&T advances to improve existing Naval capabilities, Respond quickly to current Fleet and Force critical needs.

4. Identify emerging needs and opportunities Theoretical & conceptual developments Usage of Navy core environmental prediction systems as research tools Idealized simulations for fundamental understanding Participations in field experiments Collaborations with the scientific community Applications to 6.2 and 6.4 programs in mind General Approach on Basic Research

5. FIELD EXPERIMENTS Initiate, lead, and participate in international field experiments Provide platform supports Provide real-time NWP products Provide real-time optimal sampling strategies Verification of theories and hypothesis Validation of NWP models (6.2-6.4 R&D) Participations in field experiments play an important role in the R & D ITOP T-PARC/TCS-08 T-REX SAANGRIA VOCAL

6. Overview of Navy/NRL Systems Global Forecast System (NAVGEM/NAAPS) Global Forecast System (NAVGEM/NAAPS) Mesoscale Forecast System (COAMPS/COAMPS-TC) Mesoscale Forecast System (COAMPS/COAMPS-TC) Global EFS NOGAPS/COAMPS OBS Impact Mesoscale EFS Observational Data (FNMOC) Observational Data (FNMOC) NUOPC COAMPS-OS TDA Systems Coupled EFS Data Assimilation (Adv MW/IR,OMPS) (NAVDAS-AR/NAVDAS/COAMPS-AR) Data Assimilation (Adv MW/IR,OMPS) (NAVDAS-AR/NAVDAS/COAMPS-AR) Coupled NAVGEM/HYCOM/ CICE/WWIII (ESPC) Coupled NAVGEM/HYCOM/ CICE/WWIII (ESPC) 6 Ocean/Wave Forecast System (COAMPS/NCOM/SWAN/WWIII) Ocean/Wave Forecast System (COAMPS/NCOM/SWAN/WWIII)

7. Atmosphere (Marine Meteorology) Ocean, Wave, Ice (Oceanography) EM propagation (Radar) Satellite Data (Remote Sensing) Upper Atmosphere (Space Science) CFD modeling (Lab for CPFD) Acoustic waves (Acoustics) Enhance and expand capabilities through leveraging developments in other NRL divisions INVESTMENT STRATEGY Information Technology (Info Tech)

8. NRL NUOPC YOTC JCSDA ESPC HFIP/HIWPP ONR DRIs Enhance and expand capabilities through national and international collaborations INVESTMENT STRATEGY THORPEX DYNAMO

10. ESPC Demonstrations for IOC (2018) (10 Days to 1-2 years time scale) Extreme Weather Events: Predictability of Blocking Events and Related High Impact Weather at Lead Times of 1-6 Weeks (Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL) Extended lead-time for TC Predictions: Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Likelihood, Mean Track, and Intensity from Weekly to Seasonal Timescales (Melinda Peng, NRL MRY) Coastal Seas: Predictability of Circulation, Hypoxia, and Harmful Algal Blooms at Lead Times of 1-6 Weeks (Gregg Jacobs, NRL SSC) Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Seasonal Ice Free Dates: Predictability from Weekly to Seasonal Timescales (Phil Jones, LANL) Open Ocean: Predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) from Monthly to Decadal Timescales for Improved Weather and Climate Forecasts (Jim Richman, NRL SSC)

11. ESPC Coupling Infrastructure ATM WAV MED LND NUOPC_Mediator (flux calculations) NUOPC_Connector (connect export state to import state, compute & execute regrid and data routing) NUOPC_Model (Multiphase Intialize, Run, Finalize) Develop the next generation fully coupled system ICE OCN Active models can be “live” or “data” Producer  Consumer based inter-model connections ESMF/NUOPC interface layer is being implemented into each of the Navy relevant models (NAVGEM, HYCOM, WWIII, CICE).

12. Operational Implementation Design Projected horizontal and vertical resolutions of the individual ESPC system components at the IOC in 2018. Forecast Time Scale, Frequency Atmosphere NAVGEM Ocean HYCOM Ice CICE Waves WW3 Land-Surface NAVGEM-LSM Aerosol NAAPS Deterministic short term 0-10 days, daily 20 km 80 levels (T639L80) 1/25° (4.5 km) 41 layers 1/25° (4.5 km) 1/8° (14 km) 3/16° (21 km) 3/16° (21 km) Deterministic long term 0-30 days, weekly 20 km 80 levels (T639L80) 1/12° (9 km) 41 layers 1/12° (9 km) 1/4° (28 km) 3/16° (21 km) 3/16° (21 km) Probabilistic long term 0-90 days, weekly 37 km 50 levels (T359L50) 1/12° (9 km) 41 layers 1/12° (9 km) 1/4° (28 km) 1/3° (37 km) 1/3° (37 km)

13. Summary US Navy operates globally NRL’s mission to meet the requirement of the DoD/Navy environmental information dominance fits into the core of THORPEX vision NRL has been a major player in THORPEX Navy/ONR/NRL focus on future prediction capability in expanded space and time frame is in line with the new focus of THORPEX and emerging needs of the nation