1. El Niño/Southern Oscillation Major climatic perturbation on the planet Coupled atmosphere ocean process Key is the western tropical Pacific – Ascending branch of the Walker circulation – Potential energy for Kelvin wave pulse www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/nino-home.html

2. Coupled Walker/Ocean Circulation

3. El Niño Conditions

4. Relation of Sea Level with SOI Statistical relationship with SOI Coastal signals seen in CA Current Ted Strub [OSU]

5. San Francisco Sea Level

6. CA Current Effects

7. San Francisco Sea Level

8. Kelvin Wave Pulse Kelvin wave pulse Ted Strub [OSU]

9. Santa Barbara Channel - PnB

10. Santa Barbara Channel

11. Primary Production Phytoplankton h CO 2 O2O2 PlantsNUTS Light, carbon & nutrients make plants & O 2

12. Santa Barbara Channel

14. Santa Barbara Channel Annual Means – Oct/Oct YearSST ( o C) SSS (psu) SSNO 3 (  M) SSChl (mg m -3 ) T(50m) ( o C) NO 3 (50m) ( o C) Wind Speed (m s -1 ) SCR discharge (Mm 3 /y) 1996 to 1997 15.30 (2.00) 33.62 (0.09) 1.81 (2.30) 2.01 (1.68) 11.48 (0.78) 13.24 (3.93) 7.12 (2.69) 85.00 (466.72) 1997 to 1998 17.35 (5.45) 33.42 (0.20) 0.80 (1.39) 1.05 (1.16) 13.59 (2.35) 7.53 (6.87) 5.99 (2.06) 940.07 (3958.98) 1998 to 1999 14.91 (2.76) 33.5 (0.15) 2.21 (2.76) 2.13 (2.22) 11.18 (1.32) 12.21 (4.48) 7.77 (1.43) 16.30 (51.77) 1999 to 2000 15.36 (1.85) 33.66 (0.12) 1.52 (1.46) 2.74 (2.89) 11.36 (0.97) 11.17 (5.86) 6.70 (2.84) 801.16 (3550.45) 2000 to 2001 15.37 (2.33) 33.58 (0.13) 0.79 (1.07) 1.70 (2.08) 11.24 (0.87) 11.14 (5.23) 6.1 (2.23) 298.68 (1975.85) Total15.63 (2.46) 33.58 (0.15) 1.42 (1.97) 1.94 (2.20) 11.71 (1.56) 11.14 (5.51) 6.7 (2.32) 435.09 (2597.87)

15. 97/98 ENSO in SB Channel Deep thermocline & high SST – Limits nitrate supply & chlorophyll biomass – Chl & nitrate are much lower during ESNO Forcings change – Wind speeds (West channel buoy) are lower – Santa Clara River discharges are >> normal

16. Ocean Color 97/98 ENSO Kahru & Mitchell [2000; GRL]

17. More low Chl regions during ENSO

18. Fewer occurrences of low SST during ENSO

19. Comparisons with the 82-83 ENSO

20. 97/98 ENSO in Central CA Biological processes are much lower Winds are roughly the same Upwelling still happens – but it is less “ useful ” water upwelling

21. El Niño & CA Current Kelvin wave pulse propagates north – Propagates 40,000 km in 6 months (2-3 m/s) Depresses thermocline & raises SST – Thermocline is depressed 30 to 70 m Winds are not affected in some places not others Role of thermocline depth is critical – reduced nutrient supply and lower chlorophyll

22. El Niño & Global NPP

25. El Niño & NPP Global primary production rates are a funtion of thermal stratification Strong relationship with Multi-ENSO Index (MEI) – MEI is like the SOI Global NPP is related to ENSO

26. Ecosystem Regime Shifts - PDO Climate oscillators besides ENSO – Pacific decadal oscillation - PDO Ecosystem effects of “ regime shifts ” – 1977 (have we flipped back??) – Food web & fishery responses

27. Pacific Decadal Oscillation Warm Cool http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/

28. Pacific Decadal Oscillation

29. Southern Oscillation Index SOI = Tahiti - Darwin air pressure  ’ s Low SOI = El Niño conditions

30. Pacific Decadal Oscillation

31. PDO vs. ENSO

32. Pacific Decadal Oscillation Warm Cool http://tao.atmos.washington.edu/pdo/

33. Southern Oscillation Index SOI = Tahiti - Darwin air pressure  ’ s Low SOI = El Niño conditions

34. Pacific Decadal Oscillation

35. ENSO

36. Pacific Decadal Oscillation

37. Pink Coho Chum Chinook Sockeye Salmon

40. PDO and Salmon Yields September 1972 (National Fisherman 1972) "Bristol Bay [Alaska] salmon run a disaster." "Gillnetters in the Lower Columbia [Washington and Oregon] received an unexpected bonus when the largest run of spring chinook since counting began in 1938 entered the river." 1995 Yearbook (Pacific Fishing 1995) "Alaska set a new record for its salmon harvest in 1994, breaking the record set the year before." "Columbia [Washington and Oregon] spring chinook fishery shut down; west coast troll coho fishing banned."

41. September 1915 (Pacific Fisherman 1915) "Never before have the Bristol Bay [Alaska] salmon packers returned to port after the season's operations so early." "The spring [chinook salmon] fishing season on the Columbia River [Washington and Oregon] closed at noon on August 25, and proved to be one of the best for some years." 1939 Yearbook (Pacific Fisherman 1939) "The Bristol Bay [Alaska] Red [sockeye salmon] run was regarded as the greatest in history." "The [May, June and July chinook] catch this year is one of the lowest in the history of the Columbia [Washington and Oregon]."

43. PDO and Fish Yields

44. PDO and … Mantua et al…

45. Pacific Decadal Oscillation

46. PDO and … TABLE 3: Percent change in mean catches of four Alaskan salmon stocks following major PDO sign changes in 1947 and 1977. salmon stock1947 step1977 step western Alaska sockeye-37.2%+242.2% central Alaska sockeye-33.3%+220.4% central Alaska pink-38.3%+251.9% southeast Alaska pink-64.4%+208.7%

47. PDO and …

48. Salmon and the PDO Two Hypotheses for signal –First feeding of smolts entering ocean & PDO_altered primary production – Streamflow alterations drive salmon habitat availability Consensus is the first feeding…

49. PDO and …

50. Bristol Bay Salmon Stocks Studied / Modeled Extensively Study concluded Biocomplexity preserved by setting regional guidelines– not just protecting economically viable stock BUT- where does PDO fit in? The largest harvest of sockeye salmon in the world occurs in the Bristol Bay area of southwestern Alaska where 10 million to more than 30 million sockeye salmon may be caught each year during a short, intensive fishery lasting only a few weeks.

51. Freshwater Life: Half of the Cycle Sockeye: “Simply put, the adults spawn at a date that, given the average thermal regime, will allow the embryos to complete embryonic development and emerge in time to feed on aquatic insects and zooplankton the following spring” Hilborn et. al. 2003

52. Bristol Bay Hydrology & PDO Above average mean annual discharge warm-PDO Below average mean annual discharge cool-PDO In general, high streamflow = favorable reproductive conditions

53. Bristol Bay Catch History Dominant location varies PDO-flux influences general productivity? Stock spawning ground, adaptations influence success of individual runs PDO-related population change not evident in 1920’s to 1940’s?

54. Bristol Bay Stock History Regional Stock have variety of adaptations to mean hydrologic & ecologic conditions Number of recruits per spawner: Total # adult salmon returning from a spawning year divided by # fish spawned in that brood year Increase in recruits = higher survival rates

55. Pacific Decadal Oscillation

57. Salmon and the PDO Spawners passing Bonneville Dam Hatchery returns PDO

58. PREDICTIONS? Spring Chinook returns correlated with a “ food chain ” indicator of ocean conditions, with a two year lag Columbia River coho returns correlated with the same indicator but with one year lag Ocean Entry 2005

59. “ Cool ” Phase A working mechanistic hypothesis: source waters...  Transport of cold water, phytoplankton and boreal zooplankton into the NCC from Gulf of Alaska  Transport of warm water, phytoplankton and sub-tropical zooplankton into NCC from offshore and from the south “ Warm ” Phase

60. Salmon and the PDO Two Hypotheses for signal –First feeding of smolts entering ocean & PDO_altered primary production – Streamflow alterations drive salmon habitat availability Consensus is the first feeding…

61. Predicting CA/OR Coho & Chinook Runs for 2012/2013 http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divisions/fed/oeip/a-ecinhome.cfm

62. Predicting CA/OR Coho & Chinook Runs for 2012/2013

63. Predicting CA/OR Coho & Chinook Runs for 2012/2013

64. Predicting CA/OR Coho & Chinook Runs for 2011/2012

65. Pacific Decadal Oscillation

66. PDO from Tree Rings Biondi, Gershunov & Cayan, 2001 North Pacific Decadal Climate Variability Since AD 1661. Journal of Climate, 14, 5-10. Used tree rings from Jeffrey Pine & Douglas Fir

67. PDO from Tree Rings

68. Pacific Decadal Oscillation

70. Decadal scale variations in patterns over Pacific Warm phase – Alaska moist, salmon up (freshwater habitat is good) – Oregon/Washington dry, salmon down – Patterns throughout Pacific basin Cool phase opposite Fisheries response (time scales match)