1. Markov Decision Processes & Reinforcement Learning Megan Smith Lehigh University, Fall 2006

2. Outline Stochastic Process Markov Property Markov Chain Markov Decision Process Reinforcement Learning RL Techniques Example Applications

3. Stochastic Process Quick definition: A Random Process Often viewed as a collection of indexed random variables Useful to us: Set of states with probabilities of being in those states indexed over time We’ll deal with discrete stochastic processes http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ Image:AAMarkov.jpg

4. Stochastic Process Example Classic: Random Walk Start at state X 0 at time t 0 At time t i, move a step Z i where P(Z i = -1) = p and P(Z i = 1) = 1 - p At time t i, state X i = X 0 + Z 1 +…+ Z i http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Random_Walk_example.png

5. Markov Property Also thought of as the “memoryless” property A stochastic process is said to have the Markov property if the probability of state X n+1 having any given value depends only upon state X n Very much depends on description of states

6. Markov Property Example Checkers: Current State: The current configuration of the board Contains all information needed for transition to next state Thus, each configuration can be said to have the Markov property

7. Markov Chain Discrete-time stochastic process with the Markov property Industry Example: Google’s PageRank algorithm Probability distribution representing likelihood of random linking ending up on a page http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PageRank

8. Markov Decision Process (MDP) Discrete time stochastic control process Extension of Markov chains Differences: Addition of actions (choice) Addition of rewards (motivation) If the actions are fixed, an MDP reduces to a Markov chain

9. Description of MDPs Tuple (S, A, P(.,.), R(.))) S -> state space A -> action space P a (s, s’) = Pr(s t+1 = s’ | s t = s, a t = a) R(s) = immediate reward at state s Goal is to maximize some cumulative function of the rewards Finite MDPs have finite state and action spaces

10. Simple MDP Example Recycling MDP Robot Can search for trashcan, wait for someone to bring a trashcan, or go home and recharge battery Has two energy levels – high and low Searching runs down battery, waiting does not, and a depleted battery has a very low reward news.bbc.co.uk

11. Transition Probabilities s = s t s’ = s t+1 a = a t P a ss’ R a ss’ high searchαR search highlowsearch1 - αR search lowhighsearch1 - β-3 low searchβR search high wait1R wait highlowwait0R wait lowhighwait0R wait low wait1R wait lowhighrecharge10 low recharge00

12. Transition Graph state node action node

13. Solution to an MDP = Policy π Gives the action to take from a given state regardless of history Two arrays indexed by state V is the value function, namely the discounted sum of rewards on average from following a policy π is an array of actions to be taken in each state (Policy) V(s): = R(s) + γ∑Pπ(s)(s,s')V(s') 2 basic steps

14. Variants Value Iteration Policy Iteration Modified Policy Iteration Prioritized Sweeping V(s): = R(s) + γ∑Pπ(s)(s,s')V(s') 2 basic steps 1 2 Value Function

15. Value Iteration kV k (PU)V k (PF)V k (RU)V k (RF) 1 2 3 4 5 6 V(s) = R(s) + γmaxa∑P a (s,s')V(s') 0 0 10 0 4.5 14.5 19 2.03 8.55 18.5524.18 4.76 11.79 19.26 29.23 7.45 15.30 20.8131.82 10.2317.6722.7233.68

16. Why So Interesting? If the transition probabilities are known, this becomes a straightforward computational problem, however… If the transition probabilities are unknown, then this is a problem for reinforcement learning.

17. Typical Agent In reinforcement learning (RL), the agent observes a state and takes an action. Afterward, the agent receives a reward.

18. Mission: Optimize Reward Rewards are calculated in the environment Used to teach the agent how to reach a goal state Must signal what we ultimately want achieved, not necessarily subgoals May be discounted over time In general, seek to maximize the expected return

19. Value Functions V π is a value function (How good is it to be in this state?) V π is the unique solution to its Bellman Equation Expresses relationship between a state and its successor states Bellman Equation: State-value function for policy π

20. Another Value Function Q π defines the value of taking action a in state s under policy π Expected return starting from s, taking action a, and thereafter following policy π Backup diagrams for (a) V π and (b) Q π Action-value function for policy π

21. Dynamic Programming Classically, a collection of algorithms used to compute optimal policies given a perfect model of environment as an MDP The classical view is not so useful in practice since we rarely have a perfect environment model Provides foundation for other methods Not practical for large problems

22. DP Continued… Use value functions to organize and structure the search for good policies. Turn Bellman equations into update policies. Iterative policy evaluation using full backups

23. Policy Improvement When should we change the policy? If we pick a new action α from state s and thereafter follow the current policy and V(π’) >= V(π), then picking α from state s is a better policy overall. Results from the policy improvement theorem

24. Policy Iteration Continue improving the policy π and recalculating V( π ) A finite MDP has a finite number of policies, so convergence is guaranteed in a finite number of iterations

25. Remember Value Iteration? Used to truncate policy iteration by combining one sweep of policy evaluation and one of policy improvement in each of its sweeps.

26. Monte Carlo Methods Requires only episodic experience – on-line or simulated Based on averaging sample returns Value estimates and policies only changed at the end of each episode, not on a step-by-step basis

27. Policy Evaluation Compute average returns as the episode runs Two methods: first-visit and every-visit First-visit is most widely studied First-visit MC method

28. Estimation of Action Values State values are not enough without a model – we need action values as well Q π (s, a)  expected return when starting in state s, taking action a, and thereafter following policy π Exploration vs. Exploitation Exploring starts

29. Example Monte Carlo Algorithm First-visit Monte Carlo assuming exploring starts

30. Another MC Algorithm On-line, first-visit, ε-greedy MC without exploring starts

31. Temporal-Difference Learning Central and novel to reinforcement learning Combines Monte Carlo and DP methods Can learn from experience w/o a model – like MC Updates estimates based on other learned estimates (bootstraps) – like DP

32. TD(0) Simplest TD method Uses sample backup from single successor state or state-action pair instead of full backup of DP methods

33. SARSA – On-policy Control Quintuple of events (s t, a t, r t+1, s t+1, a t+1 ) Continually estimate Q π while changing π

34. Q-Learning – Off-policy Control Learned action-value function, Q, directly approximates Q*, the optimal action-value function, independent of policy being followed

35. Case Study Job-shop Scheduling Temporal and resource constraints Find constraint-satisfying schedules of short duration In it’s general form, NP-complete

36. NASA Space Shuttle Payload Processing Problem (SSPPP) Schedule tasks required for installation and testing of shuttle cargo bay payloads Typical: 2-6 shuttle missions, each requiring 34-164 tasks Zhang and Dietterich (1995, 1996; Zhang, 1996) First successful instance of RL applied in plan-space states = complete plans actions = plan modifications

37. SSPPP – continued… States were an entire schedule Two types of actions: REASSIGN-POOL operators – reassigns a resource to a different pool MOVE operators – moves task to first earlier or later time with satisfied resource constraints Small negative reward for each step Resource dilation factor (RDF) formula for rewarding final schedule’s duration

38. Even More SSPPP… Used TD( ) to learn value function Actions selected by decreasing ε-greedy policy with one-step lookahead Function approximation used multilayer neural networks Training generally took 10,000 episodes Each resulting network represented different scheduling algorithm – not a schedule for a specific instance!

39. RL and CBR Example: CBR used to store various policies and RL used to learn and modify those policies Ashwin Ram and Juan Carlos Santamarıa, 1993 Autonomous Robotic Control Job shop scheduling: RL used to repair schedules, CBR used to determine which repair to make Similar methods can be used for IDSS

40. References Sutton, R. S. and Barto A. G. Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction. The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1998 Stochastic Processes, www.hanoivn.net http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PageRank http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markov_decision_proc ess http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markov_decision_proc ess Using Case-Based Reasoning as a Reinforcement Learning framework for Optimization with Changing Criteria, Zeng, D. and Sycara, K. 1995