1. Individualised Marketing: Travel behaviour change Equivalent to discovering another Iraq? Proven methods of reducing automobile travel can produce “nega-barrels”* of oil more cheaply and sustainably than oil can be found by exploration. (*negative oil, saved by conservation) Transport mode change is one of these mechanisms which can provide substantial oil demand reduction, cheaply, quickly and sustainably. Well-documented large programs in cities in Germany, Australia & Sweden have shown sustained average reductions of 13% in car-kms travelled (19% in Berlin, and 17% in South Perth). Individualised Marketing to inform interested people of available travel options is all that is involved. The strategy ( IndiMark®) was developed by Munich firm Socialdata and proven in Perth and in many other cities. Calculated benefit-cost ratios of 30:1 are much higher than urban road construction benefits and modern oil exploration paybacks. Individuals empowered to reduce car travel by only one or two trips a week make a big difference overall. This is often easy for many people. Efficiency Transport mode shifts Pricing & taxes City design & lifestyle Other petroleum fuels, gas, GTL Other fuels, coal to oil, biofuels Deprivation and war By 2030, the gap is likely to be 6,000 nuclear reactors wide and growing at 500 nuclear reactors a year. [This shows the magnitude of the gap, and is not a suggestion of a solution] An enormous shortfall is forecast between current demand trends and expected declining global oil production. Bruce Robinson Sustainable Transport Coalition Perth, Western Australia, www.STCwa.org.au BruceRobinsonSTC@Hotmail.com “Do we need a technological fix? Or are we in one?” Full references at www.STCwa.org.au/negabarrels “Individualised Marketing: Changing Travel Behaviour for a better Environment”, Brög et al., 2003 “Reducing car use: Just do it”, Brög, 2003 both available at www.Socialdata.de “Oil depletion: An overlooked factor in planning and transport policy”. Robinson, 2004 “Oil: Living with Less”, Sustainable Transport Coalition, April 2004 both at www.STCwa.org.auwww.STCwa.org.au WA Government Individualised Marketing home page www.dpi.wa.gov.au/travelsmart About half the world’s 80 million barrels of oil per day goes on road transport. A 5% reduction in global motor vehicle transport usage would save about as much oil as Iraq now produces (circa 2M b/d). A 10% reduction would save two “Iraqs”. Reduction of 10% in US travel alone would save half an “Iraq”. Such reductions are quite achievable, if the will exists. Behaviour change demand reduction can be faster, cheaper and easier than almost all supply-side alternatives. Discovering another Iraq ? Benefits: Reducing automobile use improves * Health (due to increased physical activity) * Pollution (local and global) * Community and social wellbeing * Road safety, congestion, ease of walking and cycling * Economy (less wasted resources) * Equity * Our oil vulnerability The potential for such cheap, voluntary methods of reducing oil usage is very considerable, and offers great hope for a smoother transition to living with less oil. Removal of subsidies to motor-vehicle users world-wide and adding a resource-depletion component to fuel taxes will provide even greater oil savings in both urban and inter-city motor vehicle use. Putting extra fuel taxes towards sustainable transport infrastructure and into behavioural programmes like Individualised Marketing would prove a very sound investment. This would make an enormous difference to the world beyond the peak of global oil production. Our current addiction to excessive automobile use is harmful in many ways and unsustainable, even in the short term. Mechanisms which may close the growing supply-demand gap are illustrated on the left (after Swenson). This scenario indicates * There will be no "magic bullet" substitute for current cheap plentiful oil, but there are many achievable measures that can reduce demand significantly and some to provide moderate amounts of alternative fuels * The most probable substitute for cheap plentiful oil is likely to be expensive and less-plentiful oil * It is crucial to start adjustments now for living with less oil. Implementing many countermeasures will already take longer than the time available before oil shortages hit us Transport mode shifts Supply-demand gap bridging possibilities IndiMark® is a people-solution. Behaviours can change substantially if useful information is provided direct to individuals. Waiting for unproven technologies alone to rescue us is most unwise.