1. IS CURRENT FOREST MANAGEMENT SUSTAINABLE FOR THE CANADIAN BOREAL FOREST ? Biodiversity and Timber production issues

2. YVES BERGERON Université du Québec en Abitibi- Témiscamingue Collaborators Sylvie Gauthier: Canadian Forest Service Mike Flannigan: Canadian forest service Alain Leduc: Université du Québec à Montréal Patrick Lefort: Universié du Québec à Montréal

3. SEVERE FIRE WITH EVEN AGED POST- FIRE COHORT

4. ECOZONE

5. Fire frequency in Canadian boreal forest Burn rates (%) PastCurrent2X co23X co2 # Ecozones (CCC) 14Montane Cordillera 0.6670.0470.000 51Taiga Shield (w) 0.8551.2021.6352.550 52Taiga Shield (E) 0.6000.0580.0790.122 61Boreal Shield (W) 1.9000.5000.6200.827 9Boreal Plains 1.0000.0660.7170.724 62Boreal Shield (E) 0.8700.0860.1000.140

6. Current burn rate is lower than past burn rate:a real substitution is expectable. Current burn rate is higher than past burn rate: fire control must be efficient to expect a real substitution. Yield constraints Biodiversity constraints Yield constraints Biodiversity & Yield constraints Biodiversity constraints Low constraint

7. AREA BURNED PROJECTIONS (log scale)

8. AREA BURNED PROJECTIONS Using results from Ecozones monthly analysis we projected future monthly area burned for the middle of the century and the end of this century for the Canadian and Hadley GCMs 75-120% increase in area burned by the end of this century according to the Canadian and Hadley models respectively CCC –2xCO 2

9. AREA BURNED PROJECTIONS CCC –3xCO 2 Hadley –3xCO 2

10. AREA BURNED PROJECTIONS (log scale)

11. WORKING HYPOTHESIS Natural disturbance paradigm Some SFM goals may be attained by using natural disturbance and forest dynamics as a template for silviculture

12. Conceptual model of the relationship between coarse and fine filters in habitat management A coarse filter operates at a variety of spatial scales to: provide habitat for a very broad range of wildlife to support interactions among species to facilitate ecosystem processes A fine filter may be required for species whose needs are not captured by the coarse filter Biodiversity is most likely to be conserved by hierarchical application of both filters on the landscape from: Forest management guide for natural disturbance pattern emulation

13. Natural stand dynamics in the Mixedwood zone Fire Budworm Fire 1st cohort2nd cohort3rd cohort Aspen (mesic- subhydric) W. birch (mesic)

17. NORMAL FOREST ROTATION A fully regulated forest with a rotation of 100 years has an equal distribution of stand ages that do not exceed 100 years.

18. FOREST REGULATION Proportion of stands over 100 and 200 years is relatively high. Fully regulated even-aged forest on a 100-year rotation would only include 40% of the natural variability.

19. Current burn rate is lower than past burn rate:a real substitution is expectable. Current burn rate is higher than past burn rate: fire control must be efficient to expect a real substitution. Yield constraints Biodiversity constraints Yield constraints Biodiversity & Yield constraints Biodiversity constraints Low constraint

20. AREA BURNED PROJECTIONS (log scale)

21. Fire frequency in Canadian boreal forest Burn rates (%) PastCurrent2X co23X co2 # Ecozones (CCC) 14Montane Cordillera 0.6670.0470.000 51Taiga Shield (w) 0.8551.2021.6352.550 52Taiga Shield (E) 0.6000.0580.0790.122 61Boreal Shield (W) 1.9000.5000.6200.827 9Boreal Plains 1.0000.0660.7170.724 62Boreal Shield (E) 0.8700.0860.1000.140