1. Bellwork 2/9/15 Managers 1. Please get your POGIL from the homework bin. 2. Gather your group at your table 3. Complete your tasks 4. Please be ready for oral presentations in 20 minutes.

2. Exit 2/9/15 1. On page 34 of your ISN make a T-chart. 2. Use this chart to compare and contrast the information from your articles with the information presented by other groups. 3. You must have at least 3 similarities and 3 differences.

3. Earthquake Prediction Sources pg. 35 ISN  U.S. Geological Survey  Federal Emergency Management Agency  Kentucky Geological Surveys  Kentucky Emergency Management

4. Bellwork 2/12/15 On page 38 of your ISN. 1. Write todays objective 2. Write the following questions and answer them. 1. What is coincidence? 2. What is causality?

5. Bellwork 2/12/15  A coincidence is when cause and effect appear to have no relationship.  Causality is the relation between one event (the cause) and a second event (the effect).

6. Page 38 create a table In each column write how the word relates to seismic predictions TimeMagnitudePlaceProbability

7. “Earthquake prediction or forecasting takes place at several levels of generalization and involves various approaches.”

8. On page 39 of your ISN create the following chart Subjective Observation Seismic Zone Analysis Instrumentation and Measurement

9. You have been given a list of 18 approaches used to predict earthquakes. Classify each of the 18 into one of the 3 ways listed on page 39 of your ISN. Lets do a few together. The important thing is that you be able to explain WHY classify your answer this way. On page 39 you will use your chart to do the following.

10.  Official protocol for earthquake predictions comes from  The National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC)  They hear evidence for predictions of earthquakes above 5.5 if they validate the prediction, the following will occur

11. The director of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) is hereby given the authority, after notification of the Director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), to issue an earthquake prediction or other earthquake advisory as he deems necessary. … The Director of FEMA shall have responsibility state and local officials and residents of an area for which a prediction has been made with recommendations of action to be taken. Public Law 95-124, Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act., as amended {P.L. 96-472}

12.  The USGS also issues earthquakes advisories.  California has its own prediction evaluation council and its own protocol. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v =ROYOr2WbZdw