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COSMO-Ru1: current status Marina Shatunova, Gdaliy Rivin, Denis Blinov Hydrometeorological Research Center of Russia Thanks our colleagues from MeteoSwiss.

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Presentation on theme: "COSMO-Ru1: current status Marina Shatunova, Gdaliy Rivin, Denis Blinov Hydrometeorological Research Center of Russia Thanks our colleagues from MeteoSwiss."— Presentation transcript:

1 COSMO-Ru1: current status Marina Shatunova, Gdaliy Rivin, Denis Blinov Hydrometeorological Research Center of Russia Thanks our colleagues from MeteoSwiss

2 COSMO-Ru1: current status CONTENT COSMO-Ru1 overview First results and verification T2m precipitation (case study of heavy precipitation event) Influence of the IC & BC (first results) domains start of the forecasts Near future work

3 COSMO-Ru model’s areas COSMO-Ru7 Domain: 4900 km x 4340 km Grid: 700 x 620 x 40 Space step: 7 km Time step: 40 s Forecast: 78 h COSMO-Ru2 Domain: 900 km x 1000 km Grid: 420 x 470 x 50 Space step: 2.2 km Time step: 20 s Forecast: 48 h COSMO-Ru1 Domain: 110 km x 110 km Grid: 100 x 100 x 50 Space step: 1.1 km Time step: 10 s Forecast: 24 h

4 COSMO-Ru model’s areas COSMO-Ru7 Domain: 4900 km x 4340 km Grid: 700 x 620 x 40 Space step: 7 km Time step: 40 s Forecast: 78 h COSMO-Ru2 Domain: 900 km x 1000 km Grid: 420 x 470 x 50 Space step: 2.2 km Time step: 20 s Forecast: 48 h COSMO-Ru1 Domain: 110 km x 110 km Grid: 100 x 100 x 50 Space step: 1.1 km Time step: 10 s Forecast: 24 h Domain: 220 km x 220 km Grid: 200 x 200 x 50 Space step: 1.1 km Time step: 10 s Forecast: 24 h

5 COSMO-Ru model’s areas COSMO-Ru7 Domain: 4900 km x 4340 km Grid: 700 x 620 x 40 Space step: 7 km Time step: 40 s Forecast: 78 h COSMO-Ru2 Domain: 900 km x 1000 km Grid: 420 x 470 x 50 Space step: 2.2 km Time step: 20 s Forecast: 48 h COSMO-Ru1 Domain: 110 km x 110 km Grid: 100 x 100 x 50 Space step: 1.1 km Time step: 10 s Forecast: 24 h Domain: 220 km x 220 km Grid: 200 x 200 x 50 Space step: 1.1 km Time step: 10 s Forecast: 24 h Domain: 495 km x 495 km Grid: 450 x 450 x 50 Space step: 1.1 km Time step: 10 s Forecast: 24 h COSMO-Ru2 COSMO-Ru1 (200x200) COSMO-Ru1 (450x450) Cluster-based architecture Tornado, peak performance 35 TFLOPS Cores: 288 (from 1536) Runtime: 15.5 min (for 200x200), 54 min (for 450x450) Cluster-based architecture Tornado, peak performance 35 TFLOPS Cores: 288 (from 1536) Runtime: 15.5 min (for 200x200), 54 min (for 450x450)

6 The first results & verification For the verification the following sources of the observation data were used:  Roshydromet meteorological stations (maximum - 13, usually - 11) (observations are made every 3 hours, 12-hours precipitation sum);  AMS (maximum - 41, usually - 12) (observations are made on average every ten minutes, but not all parameters) Verifications were made for several winter days when severe weather conditions took place. In order to assess the impact of the boundaries verifications were made for 3 simulation domain of the COSMO-Ru1:  450 x 450  200 x 200  100 x 100

7 The first results & verification Location of the observation points and model grid nodes

8 The first results & verification Location of the observation points and model grid nodes (angle view)

9 The first results verification COSMO-Ru1 grid and ASTER GDEM2 relief Grid 1310 m ASTER 1164 m  146 m Grid 1552 m ASTER 1052 m  500 m Grid 1840 m ASTER 2293 m  -453 m Grid 1107 m ASTER 1436 m  -329 m Grid 1702 m ASTER 1403 m  299 m

10 The first results & verification T2m forecast for 24 hours from 07.01.2013, 12 UTC Sledge-700 RKHU-7

11 The first results verification AMS RKHU-4 location & nodes of COSMO models (Ru1, Ru2, Ru7) for which meteograms are produced & ASTER GDEM2 relief

12 The first results verification

13 Source H, m hours 000306091215182124 Obs.data 564 0.70.90.30.5 0.30.10.50.3 COSMO-Ru1 (100) 812 2.50.70.31.00.31.2-0.3-0.6-1.8 COSMO-Ru1 (200) 2.52.50.60.60.40.41.51.50.70.70.90.9-0.8-0.5-1.6 COSMO-Ru1 (450) 2.50.80.91.00.71.00.1-0.4-1.6 COSMO-Ru2 734 2.81.71.62.12.22.30.20.0 COSMO-Ru7 1048 1.61.3-0.1-0.2-0.10.1-0.7-1.7-4.2 Station: Krasnaya Poliana Parameter: Temperature at 2m Data: 13.01.2013, 00UTC ASTER GDEM2 data for the location of the node Ru1: 549 m (-263 m)

14 The first results verification Station: Aibga Parameter: Temperature at 2m Data: 13.01.2013, 00 UTC ASTER GDEM2 data for the location of the node Ru1: 2014 m (+472 m) Source H, m hours 000306091215182124 Obs.data 2225 -5.6-5.4-5.0-4.8-5.2-5.5-8.4-10.2-10.4 COSMO-Ru1 (100) 1542.4 -2.2-1.6-2.4-1.4 -1.9-2.1-4.0-6.5 COSMO-Ru1 (200) -2.2-1.5-2.1-1.3-1.9-2.0-4.0-6.3 COSMO-Ru1 (450) -2.2-1.4-2.1-1.4-1.5-2.1-2.6-4.0-6.1 COSMO-Ru2 1868.2 -3.8-3.1-2.6-3.3-3.8-4.1-5.5-6.9-9.4 COSMO-Ru7 1179.1 0.11.31.10.5-0.1-0.3-0.7-2.4-4.8

15 The first results verification Station: M.Karusel-1000 Parameter: Temperature at 2m Data: 13.01.2013, 00UTC ASTER GDEM2 data for the location of the node Ru1: 984 m (+296 m) Source H, m hours 000306091215182124 Obs.data 978 0.0n.d.0.00.10.0-0.1-1.4-1.9-2.2 COSMO-Ru1 (100) 688.1 2.70.70.30.20.4 0.00.5-0.7 COSMO-Ru1 (200) 2.72.70.90.90.40.40.20.20.30.30.30.3-0.30.20.2-0.6 COSMO-Ru1 (450) 2.70.90.1 0.30.2-0.40.5-0.6 COSMO-Ru2 798.2 2.11.31.00.51.43.51.80.7-1.2 COSMO-Ru7 1179.1 0.11.31.10.5-0.1-0.3-0.7-2.4-4.8

16 ASTER GDEM2 data for the location of the node Ru1: 310 m (+18.5 m) The first results verification Station: Solokh-Aul Parameter: Temperature at 2m Data: 13.01.2013, 00UTC Source H, m hours 000306091215182124 Obs.data 443 3.94.54.13.74.03.01.81.10.2 COSMO-Ru1 (100) 291.5 8.56.36.57.26.86.44.53.21.5 COSMO-Ru1 (200) 8.58.56.36.36.66.66.76.76.86.86.16.14.34.33.43.41.41.4 COSMO-Ru1 (450) 8.56.16.66.96.76.04.73.11.3 COSMO-Ru2 346.4 8.36.1 6.55.8 4.02.81.2 COSMO-Ru7 583.6 6.43.74.23.21.72.51.90.3-0.9

17 First conclusion on T2m verification COSMO-Ru1 provides a realistic temperature and its diurnal variations; the greatest differences are in the initial moment; some discrepancies with the observed values ​​ may be due to prescribed altitude of the model grid nodes; no any significant changes were found in the transition from one domain to another.

18 Case study: Heavy precipitation on 13.01.2013 Station Observed data COSMO-Ru1 COSMO- Ru2 COSMO- Ru7 (100x100)(200x200)(450x450) Krasnaya Poliana*33.037.8 35.121.855.9 Aibga*3.039.243.137.824.446.7 Sochi-Agro*21.020.820.517.419.030.3 M.Karusel-1500**0.923.626.021.818.938.2 M.Karusel-1000**37.024.027.322.919.838.2 Solokh-Aul**42.041.844.752.034.750.2 * - precipitation sum for the period 03-15 UTC ** - precipitation sum for the period 06-18 UTC 12 hours precipitation sum (mm)

19 Case study: Heavy precipitation on 13.01.2013 Station Observed data COSMO-Ru1 COSMO- Ru2 COSMO- Ru7 (100x100)(200x200)(450x450) Krasnaya Poliana*33.037.8 35.121.855.9 Aibga*3.0 (?!)39.243.137.824.446.7 Sochi-Agro*21.020.820.517.419.030.3 M.Karusel-1500**0.9 (?!)23.626.021.818.938.2 M.Karusel-1000**37.024.027.322.919.838.2 Solokh-Aul**42.041.844.752.034.750.2 * - precipitation sum for the period 03-15 UTC ** - precipitation sum for the period 06-18 UTC 12 hours precipitation sum (mm)

20 Case study: Heavy precipitation on 13.01.2013

21

22 Forecast of the 12hour precipitation sum (mm). COSMO-Ru2.

23 Case study: Heavy precipitation on 13.01.2013 Forecast of the 12 hour precipitation sum (mm) from 13.01.2013, 00 UTC. COSMO-Ru2 COSMO-Ru1 (450 x 450)

24 Case study: Heavy precipitation on 13.01.2013 Forecast of the 12 hour precipitation sum (mm) from 13.01.2013, 00 UTC. COSMO-Ru1 (450 x 450) COSMO-Ru1 (200 x 200)

25 Case study: Heavy precipitation on 13.01.2013 Forecast of the 12 hour precipitation sum (mm) from 13.01.2013, 00 UTC. COSMO-Ru1 (450 x 450) COSMO-Ru1 (100 x 100)

26 Conclusion on precipitation verification the spatial distribution of precipitation is reproduced in more detail; COSMO-Ru1 provides a more accurate precipitation amount compared with the COSMO-Ru2; there is rather good agreement in the temporal distribution of precipitation; some changes in precipitation sum were detected with an expansion of the simulated domain.

27 Run with different IC&BC 1.How to improve T2m initial values? 2.How to obtain forecast earlier? Insufficient data for assimilation during model run! To start from the previous COSMO-Ru2 forecast IC & BC from COSMO-Ru2: start from 00 h; start from -06 h; start from -12 h start from -12 h.

28 Run with different IC&BC COSMO-Ru1 T2m forecast with IC & BC from COSMO-Ru2: start from 00 h; start from -06 h; start from -12 h start from -12 h. Krasnaya Polyana M.Carusel-1000 RKHU-4

29 Run with different IC&BC COSMO-Ru1 12h precipitation sum forecast with IC & BC from COSMO-Ru2 start from 00 h start from -06 h

30 Run with different IC&BC COSMO-Ru1 12h precipitation sum forecast with IC & BC from COSMO-Ru2 start from 00 h start from -06 h. Kr.Polyana. Sochi

31 Conclusion and near future plan  COSMO-Ru1 is installed and works  The verification of the first results shows good agreement with observed data  It is possible to run COSMO-Ru1 with IC&BC from the previous COSMO-Ru2 forecast, but additional evaluations should be made beforehand  Use new orography and topography – with hope on new EXTPAR!  Verification by means of VERSUS  Run with implicit convection simulation Thank you for your attention!

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