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Agricultural impact studies in areas of complex orography: the need for high resolution climate models in the Iberian Peninsula Universidad Politécnica.

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Presentation on theme: "Agricultural impact studies in areas of complex orography: the need for high resolution climate models in the Iberian Peninsula Universidad Politécnica."— Presentation transcript:

1 Agricultural impact studies in areas of complex orography: the need for high resolution climate models in the Iberian Peninsula Universidad Politécnica de Madrid & Universidad de santiago de Compostela (PRUDENCE PROJECT) CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

2 PRUDENCE PROJECT Prediction Uncertainties Describing European Climate change and Effects M. Inés Mínguez, Margarita Ruiz-Ramos, Carlos H. Díaz-Ambrona, Miguel Quemada and Federico Sau IT: Daniel del Valle Sergio de Gruijter UPM & USC Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

3 RCMs A2 & B2 SCENARIOS (SRES) FORCING Agricultural Impact (Crop Models) AGCMs Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

4 RCMs in PRUDENCE Comparison among 9 RCMs Forcing with 1 RGM: HadAM3H (less in Arpège RCM which has it’s own forcing s.) 2 climate change scenarios: A2 & B2 Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

5 RCMs in PRUDENCE 1. HadRM3H (HC: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research) 2. RegCM (ICTP: The Abdus Salam Intl. Centre for Theoretical Physiscs) 3. CHRM (ETH: Swiss Federal Institute of Technology) 4. RACMO (KNMI: The Royal Netherland Meteorological Institute) 5. ARPÈGE (MF: Meteo France) Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

6 RCMs in PRUDENCE 6. CLM (GKSS: GKSS FORSCHUNGSZENTRUM; Institute for Coastal Research) 7. REMO (MPI: Max Planck Institute for Meteorological Research) 8. PROMES (UCM: Universidad Complutense de Madrid) 9. HIRHAM (DMI: Danish Meteorological Institute) Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

7 Crop models used in PRUDENCE Physiological type models: DSSAT3.5-CERES (mechanistic model; Jones et. al., 2003) Cropping system-type model: CropSyst (simpler model; Stockle et al., 2003) Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004 Non-linear response in both types.

8 Compensating effects of climate change reflected in models CO 2 increase (for a given T)  –Increase in photosynthetic rates –Decrease in Transpiration rates (ET) T increase  - Increase in evapotranspiration (ET) - Shorter crop cycles (thermal time) Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

9 Crop models used in PRUDENCE INPUTS: Daily weather data: SR, Tmax, Tmin, P (Optional: VPD, wind speed) Soil profile caracteristics LL, DUL & SAT (for each soil layer) Species charaterisitics (eg wheat) and variety (eg cv. Anza, Marius) Genetic coefficients that allow to define thousands of genotypes Soil initial conditions (soil water content) CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004 Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography

10 Crop simulations Climate change impact assessment - Use of winter (wheat) vs summer crops (maize) to discriminate between seasons -Crop management (Irrigated and Rainfed) for changing uncertainty levels CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004 Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography

11 Adding Uncertainties from the RCMs predictions from the crop models per se from the extrapolation of crop models, tested within a limited sample of real conditions to a much larger domain soil profiles (DUL, LL, SAT and depth) Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

12 Changing uncertainty levels Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Greater uncertainty level: rain-fed systems Rainfall data Soil profiles: LL, DUL, SAT, depth Initial soil conditions Crop responses to water stress CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

13 Smaller uncertainty level: irrigated systems (if water available) Potential yield simulation (elimination of water stress) Spatial variability in soil textures and depth has much less influence in yield Rainfall predictions do not affect yields Effect of Tmax, Tmin and SR Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

14 Crop model calibration and validation has to focus on the main processes involved at crop and cropping systems level phenology, biomass and yield ETc and net irrigation requirements Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

15 Spatial scales with impact models Crop model calibration and validation: Site-specific Some agricultural areas outside the calibration (validation) Crop models generate data within the range recorded by MAPYA Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

16 Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography

17 34 soil groups specific profiles Soil data base: PROMES land-grids CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004 Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography

18 Species/cvs for season discrimination Autumn-winter-spring for winter (cv. Marius) and spring wheat (cv. Anza) rainfed and irrigated (ETmax) Sow. 15 october Spring-summer maize (irrigated) Sow. 15 April; 15 May; 1 June Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

19 Filters Varieties (CVs) with different cold requirements for flower induction: spring (Anza) vs winter (Marius) cultivars enhancing the important differences in T (Tmin) in winter Winter wheat: vernalization needs have to be fulfilled. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

20 Simulations Current: 1960-1990 A2 or B2: 2070-2100 Outputs: average of 30 years (current & A2 or B2) Results are presented in maps: A2 or B2/Current (%) or Relative Yield (%) Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

21 REMO winter wheat rain-fed CERES A2/crtl Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

22 REMO winter wheat irrigated CERES A2/crtl Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

23 HadAM3H A2 driving conditions Relative yield CERES- Spring Wheat (DSSAT) Irrigated Sowing date: 15 october Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

24 HadAM3H (HC) CERES-Spring Wheat Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004 Irrigated A2

25 RegCM (ICTP) CERES-Spring Wheat Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004 Irrigated A2

26 CHRM (ETH) CERES-Spring Wheat Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004 Irrigated A2

27 RACMO (KNMI) CERES-Spring Wheat Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004 Irrigated A2

28 Arpège CERES-Spring Wheat Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004 Irrigated A2

29 CLM (GKSS) CERES-Spring Wheat Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004 Irrigated A2

30 HadRM3H (HadleyC) CERES-Spring Wheat Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004 Irrigated A2

31 REMO (MPI) CERES-Spring Wheat Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004 Irrigated A2

32 PROMES (UCM) CERES-Spring Wheat Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004 Irrigated A2

33 HIRHAM (DMI) CERES-Spring Wheat Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004 Irrigated A2

34 Crop model Differences between the two crop models outputs exist: CERES-DSSAT discriminates more among polygons Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

35 Changes in irrigation requirements for maize A2 PROMES B2 Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

36 MAIZE irrigated (kg/ha) HIRHAMHIRHAM high CórdobaAvgCVAvgCV Xerorthent Control883711812212 A2289384668113 Rel(%)3382 Chromoxerert Control849714464546 A2289184622316 Rel(%)35134 50 km vs 25 km Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

37 Some conclusions Regions/areas show similar yield trends in many RCM models Influence in rainfed crops of Tmin vs rainfall All models detect winter vs spring wheat Higher resolution: more differences among soil polygons Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

38 Still working on: A2, B2 scenarios 50 km vs 25 km (grid) Other forcings: try different GCMs with the same RCM. THANK YOU Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

39 SpWheat Kg/ha SRHadAM3HPROMESRegCM MCVM M Navarra 42ºN 500 m 2074 (53) Ctl353043 66332633744 A2482142146633867826 B2--109647733037 Valladolid 41º N 400 m 1533 (60) Ctl348053105044543240 A2591837220036400072 B2---222637412764 Córdoba 38ºN 120 m 3047 (39) Ctl 6273921977326455 A217205879366399772 B2----47274412764 CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004 Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography

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