1. Workshop on Achieving Universal Electricity Access in Myanmar
Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) - Organizing, Planning, Implementation and Financing Universal Electricity Access Rwanda National Electrification Program Experience, lessons, implications
Arun P. Sanghvi
Consultant
Workshop on Achieving Universal Electricity Access in Myanmar
Naypyitaw, May 31 – June 1, 2013
master may 30 6pm
Bongiorno Apologies but my Italian does not go much beyond biongiorno, so this presentation will need to be in English.
Introduction – name
It is
I will give you an overview of the WBG renewable energy interventions.

3. Organization of Presentation
Sector wide approach (SWAp)
What is a SWAp?
architecture differs from other approaches used to plan, finance and implement development projects
Rwanda National Electrification program (NEP) - SWAp experience
National context and drivers
SWAp building blocks
Prospectus - from vision to implementation
Key policy and planning issues
Implementation results to date
Lessons
Implications for Myanmar

4. Government leadership and policies make the difference International experience Population without Access to Electricity and poverty prevalence (2008)

5. Anatomy of a SWAp organizing framework
“Many Partners, One Team, One Plan”
Stakeholders
SWAp
Government
Development Partners
Utility
Regulatory Authority
Local Government
Sector Ministries
Private Stakeholders
Consumers
Country-owned and led, results focused, long-term sector development program
Brings together development partners and other stakeholders to coordinate aid effectiveness within the sector
Implementation aligned with national development priorities and targets
Traditionally used to coordinate investments in schools and health clinics; but now being deployed effectively for scaling up electricity access nationwide (Rwanda, Kenya, Indonesia, SE4ALL)
Sustainable and predictable funding anchored by a least cost sector-wide investment plan for national electrification program; integrating technical, financial and implementation.
Shift from piecemeal aid delivery, project-by-project, donor-by-donor
to programmatic, results-focused implementation framework

6. Rwanda National Electrification Program – clear vision and targets
Post-conflict imperative for rapid scale up of productive infrastructure for powering accelerated growth and social sector services delivery, and meeting basic energy needs
2004
Extremely low electrification rate (65,000 connections = approx. 6% )
Severe drought period led to shortages
Low available generation capacity (41MW)
50% peak hour load shedding
Electrogaz recorded annual operating losses >US$9.1million
Recovering from civil war
2008
110,000 households and enterprises connected (80% of which are in Kigali)
50% Health facilities with access to reliable energy
20% Schools with access to reliable energy
25% Sector offices with access to reliable energy
Urgent Electricity Rehabilitation Programme (UERP) invests US$34 million to deliver 20MW of thermal generating capacity
2009-
Next Steps: SWAp
A programme to increase electricity connections from 110,000 (2008) to 350,000 (2014), and substantially increase access to electricity for social infrastructure

7. Rwanda NEP SWAp – building blocks
July Energy Sector Working Group (SWG) established. MoU signed - Ministers of Finance and Energy, and senior development partners
Bankable Prospectus prepared (2009) - high level information document anchored by :
Geospatial least-cost national rollout program (grid and off-grid)
Integrated with most effective renewable energy supply sources
Connection costs based on affordability
Explicit cost reduction strategy
Transparent and sustainable financing platform agreed jointly with development partners

8. Rwanda Prospectus Scope
Task 1: Rapid appraisal and readiness assessment (Sept – Oct. 2008)
institutional framework
key institutions
Technical, financial, policy, regulatory, capacity
Task 2: Geospatial least-cost grid roll-out + off-grid plan fro national electrification
Task 3: Review adequacy of bulk power supply system and investment requirements

9. Prospectus Scope ….Rwanda
Task 4: Sector financial analysis & projected financing (balance sheet, sources and uses of funds)
Investment and recurrent costs
Revenues from tariffs, efficiency improvements, utility self generation
Government equity transfers, other committed financing
Task 4: Draft Prospectus and first round Donor review (January 2009)
Task 5: Final Prospectus and Donor Financing Round Table to address financing gap (March 2009)

10. Geospatial least cost national electrification plan Grid extensions and rollout coordinated with off-grid complement
Physical plans and investment cost for increasing electricity access for households, health centres, administrative offices and schools, consistent with policy targets and with overall sector growth
Comprehensive GIS (Geographical Information System) data base
Population density, economic activity areas, priority social institutions (health centers, schools, administrative offices)
data from National Bureau of Statistics, National GIS Centre, MINALOC, MINEDUC, MINISANTE, MININFRA, ELGZ
Digitization of existing and planned national electricity grid
Affordability based on household income and expenditure data
Supply options off-grid
- Micro-hydro mini grids, diesel grids, solar home size systems, charging products

11. Current Electricity Network
Total Connections
110,00 0
Population Coverage 6%
Social Connections
Schools
21%
Health centres
74%
Admin offices
67%
More than 60 per cent of population live within 5 km of existing network

12. AFREA Support for Energy Sector SWAps
Transitional off-grid areas shrink as grid rollout expands
Rapid spatial planning platform utilized in Rwanda
AFREA Support for Energy Sector SWAps

13. Population Density
Source: CGIS-NUR, Ministry of Local Government – National ID Project, Ministry of Infrastructure, National Institute of Statistics, Rwanda

14. Health Centers 74 percent of health centers currently have access
Sources: MINALOC, MININFRA, MINISANTE

15. Secondary Schools 21 percent of schools currently have access
Sources: MINALOC, MININFRA, MINEDUC

16. Administrative Offices
67 percent of administrative offices currently have access
Sources: MINALOC, MININFRA

17. Affordability of Electricity by District
Percent of population with expenditure of less than US$1.25 per day
Source: EICV2 Survey

18. GIS-Based Rapid Spatial Planning Platform
Powerful Planning Tool for National Electrification Program Rollout to meet time bound targets

19. 2009 Grid Program Total Connections 146,969 Population Coverage 7%
Social Connections
Schools
27%
Health centres
82%
Admin offices
69%

20. 2010 Grid Program Total Connections 204,397 Population Coverage 10%
Social Connections
Schools
35%
Health centres
88%
Admin offices
83%

21. 2011 Grid Program Total Connections 270,380 Population Coverage 13%
Social Connections
Schools
43%
Health centres
93%
Admin offices
92%

22. 2012 Grid Program Total Connections 350,000 Population Coverage 16%
Social Connections
Schools
50%
Health centres
100%
Admin offices

23. Access Programme to 2020 Total Connections 820,00 0
Population Coverage
36%
Social Connections
Schools
68%
Health centres
100%
Admin offices

24. AFREA Support for Energy Sector SWAps
Spatial least cost national electrification rollout in Rwanda
grid and off-grid,
AFREA Support for Energy Sector SWAps

25. Electricity access planning for national electrification
SWAp - sector-wide national electrification planning platform - Spatial least-cost national grid (and off-grid complement) integrated rollout investment & implementation plan proved to be extremely effective:
Seen as a national development plan rather than a electricity sector plan
engaging all key stakeholders (in country and external)
rallying development Partner contributions
Modest cost and frequent updates – resulting in a dynamic planning platform:
Classical style “RE Master Plan”
overly cumbersome (2-3 years)
high cost (1-2 million $)
updated less frequently
static in representation of changing conditions over time (grid rollout, demand, priority locations);
project here and there and now and then approach when donors come “shopping”

26. Planning for affordability Controlling costs
Balancing affordability for new users, improving financial health of national
utiltity, and program financing on a sustained basis
Planning for affordability
The proportion of households that live on less than US$1.25 per day is between 50% and 80% in most areas
But affordability analysis showed a relatively high willingness to pay for electricity
Controlling costs
Technical specifications were revised:
Changing from lattice framed steel towers to wooden poles (below)
Using single-wire earth return (SWER) lines in rural areas
Using local manufacturing for required materials, wherever possible
Doubling contract sizes to gain economies of scale
Despite low income levels in Rwanda, analysis showed that 370,000 hhs would be willing and able to pay cost of grid connection and recurrent charges
Targeted cost reduction per connection: US$1,000 (in 2009) to US$600 (in 2013) due to planned efficiencies

27. Sustainable Financing Policy Platform
Underpinning NEP- SWAp Prospectus time slice
Consensus built around “ ” policy for first SWAp Prospectus
Concessionary finance from Donors on-granted to ELGZ , with policy to be re-visited for second SWAP time slice post 2014
Programme Costs
Financially sound utility
- Utility expected to contribute 10% to capital costs (from on-going tariff revenues)
- Investments in new generation also funded from tariffs
Connection charges based on ability to pay
- Consumers expected to pay nominal US$100 connection charge
Government and donor support
- Needs to meet remaining 80% of costs

28. Partner Pledges - Prospectus Donor Financing Round Table (Sum)
Programmed Donor Contribution
World Bank+GEF
Dutch Government
78.3 45
JICA
African Development Bank 25 50
Committed Donor Funding (Off Grid)
European Commission 35
New Partners
BADEA
OFID
Saudi fund 10
Government Contribution ($10m/yr.)
ELGZ
Customers 27
TOTAL financing
357.3

29. Donor financing Roundtable, Kigali, April 2009
Matching NEP investment and TA costs with syndicated financing

30. Key outcomes and implementation results
Rwanda NEP –SWAp
Key outcomes and implementation results
Donors Round Table April successful syndication (financing) pledges of US$225 million for first slice of the program ( ) identified in program Prospectus. Donors uniformly commented that the Prospectus presented in a consistent, comprehensive and convincing manner:
The program is transformative; It is technically sensible; It is economically and financially viable; and it is implementable
ELGZ, established the National Electrification Program Management Department integrally within Electrogaz’s corporate structure to oversee planning, design, and implementation, pooling of all funds irrespective of donor, monitoring and evaluation, and Reporting accountability (no more enclave style PMUs ).
Commitment to the staged reductions in average unit connection costs - first two years of connections achieved within budgeted unit cost estimates of US$1,000/connection, Substantially lower cost than pre-SWAp program project averages
Program implementation early results – On track to achieve objective of 16% electrification by 2013
Programme Connections (Target and Actual)
2008 Actual
2009
2010
2011 (August)
2014 Target
New connections
< 5,000
32,995
43,733
40,419
Households connected to electricity
110,896
143,891
187,624
228,043
350,000

31. Rwanda lessons – Key Success Factors
Strong country ownership and leadership up and down the chain of accountability
Cabinet , MINECOFIN, MININFRA, Other Line Ministries – Health, Education, Environment
Committed National Utility (ELGZ)
Linkages to comprehensive and inclusive national vision and priorities
Ensured that the SWAp is aligned with the policy direction of the Government
Key stakeholder consensus and buy-in built from outset, through work by the SWG, led by the Minister on Energy
Consultation process, workshops, retreats prepared stakeholders well for the Donor Round Table
South-South Cooperation and Training
Technical designs, planning, implementation, logistics\
GIS anchored data capture and grid rollout planning
Preparation across all key ministries in a coordinated manner
Affordable and inclusive
Connection charges set at affordable levels
Managing the transition from planning to implementation

32. Key benefits of a SWAp framework for national electrification
Increased predictability (and possibly scale) of sector funding
Increased transparency and accountability
More effective partnerships
Increased donor coordination
leading to complimentary investments
less duplication or wasted resources
Lower transaction costs of disbursing and receiving donor funds
Ensures an appropriate level of input from development partners into policies, priorities, and sector expenditure

33. AFREA Support for Energy Sector SWAps
Other National Electrification programs utilizing SWAps
AFREA Support for Energy Sector SWAps
Kenya NEP (population 41 million; access ~ 29 %)
Prospectus raised US$1.5 billion to support government target of 1 million new connections over ; implementation rate scaled up from ~40,000/yr. to ~ 250,000 connections/yr.
Indonesia Prospectus preparation ongoing (population ~235 million. Access ~ 70 percent)
75 million w/o access; investment required ~ $700m/yr. plus generation; implementation rate ~ 1,000,000 connections/yr.
PNG NEP Prospectus preparation ongoing (population 7 million; access ~ 17 percent)

34. Geo (new+ maintenance) 215 Coal (proposed) 391 $565 M
Kenya National Electrification Program Investment Prospectus ( ) - $1.9 Billion
Total
Cost Breakdown
Amt
Generation
$634 M
Hydro upgrade 27
Geo (new+ maintenance)
215
Coal (proposed)
391
Transmission
$565 M
New transmission lines
360
International Tran lines
195
Distribution
$718 M
Transformers, Substations 78
PV for schools 29
Isolated Mini grids 90
LV reinforcement 61
Grid Connections
460
4/16/2017

37. Wither Forward - Myanmar's National Electrification Program

39. Myanmar’s - National Electrification Program Towards a Brighter Future for All Within a Generation?
“Yes we can”

40. cè-zù tin-ba-deh
thank you