1. Population, Resources, and Sustainability
Chapter 10
Population, Resources, and Sustainability

2. Key Questions
How is population size affected by the number of males and females at each age level?
How can population growth be slowed?
What success have India and China had in slowing population growth?
How can global population growth be reduced?

3. How is Population Size Affected by Birth and Death Rates?
Population size depends on: births, deaths, and migration
Population change = (births + immigration) – (deaths + emigration)
When births and immigration are more than deaths and emigration, population is growing
When deaths and emigration are more than births and immigration, population is declining

4. How Do We Find Birth and Death Rates?
Crude birth rate: number of live births per 1,000 people in a population in a year
Crude death rate: number of deaths per 1,000 people in a population in a year

5. World 21 9 All developed countries 11 10 All developing 24 8
Average crude birth rate
Average crude death rate
World
All developed
countries
All developing
Developing
(w/o China) 21 9 11 10 24 8 29
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

6. Some Facts
Every time your heart beats, 2.3 more babies are added to the world’s population
More births are occurring than deaths
We share the earth’s resources with 216,000 more people each day
Equivalent of filling up a jumbo jet with 400 new passengers every 2.7 minutes!

7. Calculate the World’s Annual Population Change
Annual rate of population change (%) = birth rate – death rate x 100
1,000 people
= birth rate – death rate 10

8. <1% 1-1.9% 2-2.9% 3+% Data not available Annual world
population growth
<1%
1-1.9%
2-2.9%
3+%
Data not
available

9. Map
An exponential growth rate of 1.28% may seem small, but it adds about 79 million people per year to the world’s population!
Equivalent to adding a New York City every month!

10. Population in billions
2.5 10
2.0 8
1.5 6
Population in billions
Growth rate (percent)
1.0 4
0.5 2
0.0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year
Less developed countries
More developed countries

11. World’s 10 Most Populous Countries
China and India together make up 37% of the world’s population
The US has the 3rd largest population, but only 4.6% of the world’s people

12. © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
China
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
1.28 billion
1.5 billion
India
1 billion
1.4 billion
USA
288 million
346 million
Indonesia
217 million
282 million
Brazil
174 million
219 million
Pakistan
144 million
242 million
Russia
144 million
129 million
Bangladesh
134 million
178 million
Japan
127 million
121 million
Nigeria
130 million
205 million
2002
2025

13. How have Global Fertility Rates Changed?
1. Replacement fertility: number of children a couple must have to replace themselves
Slightly higher than 2 in developed countries and 2.5 in most developing countries
Reason? Some female children die before reproductive years

14. How have Global Fertility Rates Changed?
2. Total Fertility Rate: estimate of the average number of children a female will have during her childbearing years
TFRs have sharply dropped since 1950

15. © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
World
5 children per women
2.8
Developed
countries
2.5
1.6
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Developing
countries
6.5
3.1
Africa
6.6
5.2
Latin
America
5.9
2.7
Asia
5.9
2.6
Oceania
3.8
2.5
North
America
3.5
2.1
Europe
2.6
1.4
1950
2002

16. Births per thousand population32 30 28 26 24
Births per thousand population 22 20 18
End of World War II 16
Demographic
transition 14
Depression
Baby boom
Baby bust
Echo baby boom
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year

17. U.S. Birth Rates Fell Sharply because…
Demographic transition:
Industrialization and urbanization
Educated women working outside home
THEN,
Baby Boom Period: after WW1
Echo Boom Period: people born during baby boom started having children

18. What Factors Affect Birth Rates?
Importance of children as part of labor force
Urbanization
Cost of raising children
Employment opportunities for women
Infant mortality rate
Average age at marriage
Availability of abortions
Availability of birth control
Religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural norms

19. What Factors Affect Death Rates?
Food supply and distribution
Nutrition
Improvements in medical technology
Improvements in sanitization and personal hygiene
Safer water supplies

20. Life Expectancy
Average number of years a newborn infant can be expected to live
In the world’s poorest countries, life expectancy is 55 years or less.
High infant mortality rate = not enough food, malnutrition, or high infectious diseases

21. © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
United States
Mexico
Canada
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
288 million
Population
(2002)
102 million
31 million
Projected
population
(2025)
346 million
132 million
36 million
Infant
mortality
rate
6.6 25
5.3
77 years
Life
expectancy
75 years
79 years
2.1
Total fertility
rate (TFR)
2.9
1.5
21%
% population
under age 15
33%
19%
13%
% population
over age 65 5%
13%
$34,110
Per capita
GNI PPP
$8,790
$27,170

22. Infant Mortality and Birth Rates
U.S. has the highest teen pregnancy rate of any developed country.
Each year, 872,000 teenage girls become pregnant and 253,000 have abortions
Babies born to teenage mothers usually have low birth weight which causes infant mortality.

23. What Are Age Structure Diagrams?
Age structure: the proportion of the population at each age level
Plot percentages of males and females in the population in each of 3 categories:
Prereproductive: ages 0-14
Reproductive: ages 15-44
Postreproductive: ages 45 and up

24. © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Male
Female
Male
Female
Rapid Growth
Guatemala
Nigeria
Saudi Arabia
Slow Growth
United States
Australia
Canada
Ages 0-14
Ages 15-44
Ages
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

25. © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Male
Female
Male
Female
Zero Growth
Spain
Austria
Greece
Negative Growth
Germany
Bulgaria
Sweden
Ages 0-14
Ages 15-44
Ages
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

26. Population (millions) © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Developed Countries
85+
80-85
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Male
Female
Age
300
200
100
100
200
300
Population (millions)
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

27. Population (millions) © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Developing Countries
85+
80-85
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Male
Female
Age
300
200
100
100
200
300
Population (millions)
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

28. Population (2002) Population projected (2025) Infant mortality rate
United States (highly developed)
288 million
174 million
Brazil (moderately developed)
130 million
Nigeria (less developed)
Population
projected
(2025)
346 million
219 million
205 million
Infant
mortality
rate
6.8 33 75
Life
expectancy
77 years
69 years
52 years
Fertility
rate (TFR)
2.1
2.2
5.8
%Population
under
age 15
21%
33%
44%
% Population
over
age 65
13% 5% 3%
Per capita
GNI PPP
(2000)
$34,100
$7,300
$800
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

29. What Are Some Effects of Population Decline from Reduced Fertility?
As the % of people over 60 increases, more countries will experience population declines
By 2020, 1 billion people will be 60 or older.
Rapid population decline can lead to serious economic and social problems
Example: older people consume a large part of medical care, Social Security, and other services funded by taxpayers
labor shortages

30. What Are Some Effects of Population Decline from Rise in Death Rates?
Sharp drop in life expectancy
Loss of most productive young adult workers
Sharp rise in number of orphans
We need to:
Reduce the spread of HIV
Provide debt relief and financial assistance
Send volunteer teachers and social workers

31. Is the World Overpopulated?
Is it already overpopulated?
What should we do to stop population growth?
What is the optimum sustainable population?
No one knows!

32. One Viewpoint The world can support billions more people
People are the world’s most valuable resource for solving problems and stimulating economic growth by being consumers
Population regulation is a violation of personal freedom

33. An Opposing Viewpoint
We already fail to provide the basic necessities to 1 out of 5 people today
If we do not take measures to drop the birth rate, we are increasing the death rate
We greatly increase environmental harm

34. Stages of Development in Countries
Preindustrial: very little population growth due to harsh living conditions
Transitional: industrialization begins; food production rises and health care improves; population grows rapidly
Industrial: birth rate drops; population growth slows
Postindustrial: birth rate declines; zero population growth

35. How Do We Cut Global Population Growth?
Family planning
Empowering women: women have fewer and healthier children when they have access to education and paying jobs AND when they live in societies with rights
Reduce poverty