1. Human Population Describe factors that affect population growth
Target:
Discuss human population dynamics by
Describe factors that affect population growth
Interpret population graphs
Compare population growth issues in developed vs. developing countries

2. Global Trends Quiz

3. How is population size affected by birth rates and death rates?
Population change = (Births + Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration)
Crude Birth Rate: number of live births per 1,000 people in a population in a given year
Crude Death Rate: number of deaths per 1,000 people in a population in a given year
Annual rate of natural population change (%) = (Birth rate – Death rate)/1,000 person x 100

4. World 21 9 All developed countries 11 10 All developing countries 24 8
Average crude birth rate
Average crude death rate
World 21 9
All developed
countries 11 10
All developing
countries 24 8
Developing
countries
(w/o China) 27 9
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

5. How fast is the world’s population growing?
Exponential population growth has not disappeared but is occurring at a slower rate.
Between 1963 to 2004, annual rate of natural population change dropped from 2.2% to 1.25%.
Annual rate of natural population change differs between developed and developing countries:
In 2004, 0.1% in developed countries
In 2004, 1.5% in developing countries

6. 10 most populated countries
China
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
1.3 billion
1.4 billion
India
1.1 billion
1.4 billion
USA
294 million
349 million
Indonesia
219 million
308 million
Brazil
179 million
211 million
Pakistan
10 most populated countries
159 million
229 million
Russia
144 million
137 million
Bangladesh
141 million
205 million
Japan
128 million
121 million
Nigeria
137 million
206 million
2004
2025

7. How long does it take to double the number of people on the planet?
Rule of 70:
Doubling time (in years) = 70/ rate of growth (%)
Using the current annual rate of natural growth…
70 / 1.25% = 56 years for the world’s population to double
70 / 2.8% = 25 years for Nigeria’s population to double

8. How have global fertility rates changed?
Replacement-Level Fertility: number of children a couple must bear to replace themselves
2.1 in developed countries
as high as 2.5 in developing countries
Total Fertility Rate: average number of children a woman typical has during reproductive years
1.5 in developed countries
3.1 in developing countries with 5.2 in Africa in 2004

9. TFR – Total Fertility Rates
World
5 children per woman
2.8
Developed
countries
2.5
1.6
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Developing
countries
6.5
3.1
Africa
6.6
5.1
Latin
America
5.9
2.6
Asia
5.9
2.6
Oceania
3.8
2.1
North
America
3.5
TFR – Total Fertility Rates
2.0
Europe
2.6
1.4
1950
2004

10. Population (billions)
Projected Population 12 11
High (2.5)
High
10.6 10
Med. (2.0) 9
Low (1.5)
Medium
8.9 8
Population (billions) 7 6
Low
7.2 5 4 3 2
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year

11. TFR for USA 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 Births per woman 2.1 2.0 1.5 Baby boom
( )
Replacement
level
1.0
0.5
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year

12. Population in millions
600
571
500
400
Population in millions
292
300
Total population
200 76
100
Projections
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Year
USA Population Growth

13. © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
United States
Mexico
Canada
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
294 million
Population
(2004)
106 million
32 million
Projected
population
(2025)
349 million
150million
36 million
Infant
mortality
rate
6.7 25
5.2
77 years
Life
expectancy
75 years
79 years
2.0
Total fertility
rate (TFR)
2.8
1.7
Demographic Data
21%
% population
under age 15
35%
18%
12%
% population
over age 65 5%
13%
$36,110
Per capita
GDP PPP
$8,790
$31,892

14. 47 years
Life expectancy
77 years
Married women working
outside the home 8%
81%
15%
High school graduates
83%
10%
Homes with flush toilets
98% 2%
Homes with electricity
99%
10%
Living in suburbs
52%
1900 $3
Hourly manufacturing job
wage (adjusted for inflation)
2000
$15
1.2
Homocides per
100,000 people
5.8

15. How do these Factors affect birth rates and fertility rates?
Importance of child labor
Cost of raising a family
Availability of pension
Urbanization
Education and employment for women
Infant mortality
Average age at marriage
Availability of reliable birth control methods and legal abortion
Religious beliefs & traditions

16. What are indicators of overall health?
Life expectancy: average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live
Infant morality rate: number of babies out of every 1,000 born who die before their first birthday
Single best measure of a society’s quality of life
40 countries have lower infant mortality rates than the US due to…
Inadequate health care
Drug addiction
High teenage birth rate

17. How is population size affected by age structure?
Age structure: distribution of males and females in each age group
3 age categories
Prereproductive (0 to 14)
Reproductive (15 to 44)
Postreproductive (ages 45 and up)

18. Age Structure Diagrams
Male
Female
Male
Female
30% of world population is under 15 years old.
Rapid Growth
Guatemala
Nigeria
Saudi Arabia
Slow Growth
United States
Australia
Canada
Ages 0-14
Ages 15-44
Ages
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

19. © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Male
Female
Male
Female
Zero Growth
Spain
Austria
Greece
Negative Growth
Germany
Bulgaria
Sweden
Ages 0-14
Ages 15-44
Ages
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

20. USA Population Male Female Age 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 6
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Male
Female
Age 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 6
Percent of population 1900

21. Age 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 Percent of population 2000
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Male
Female
Age 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5
Percent of population 2000

22. Age 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 Percent of population 2050
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Male
Female
Age 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4
Percent of population 2050

23. United States (highly developed)
Population
(2004)
294 million
179 million
Brazil (moderately developed)
137 million
Nigeria (less developed)
Population
projected
(2025)
349 million
211 million
206 million
Infant
mortality
rate
6.7 33
100
Life
expectancy
77 years
71 years
52 years
Fertility
rate (TFR)
2.0
2.2
5.7
%Population
under
age 15
21%
30%
44%
% Population
over
age 65
12% 6% 3%
Per capita
GNI PPP
$36,110
$7,450
$800
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

24. Global Aging 40 35 30 25 Age Distribution (%) 20 15 10 5 1950 1970
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
2110
2130
2150
Year
Under age 15
Age 60 or over
Age 80 or over

25. How can economic development help reduce birth rates?
Demographic Transitions: as countries become more industrialized, first their death rates then birth rates decline.
4 stages
Preindustrial
Transitional
Industrial
Postindustrial

26. Stages of Demographic Transition
Preindustrial
Stage 2
Transitional
Stage 3
Industrial
Stage 4
Postindustrial
Low
High
Relative population size
(number per 1,000 per year)
Birth rate and death rate 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
Birth rate
Death rate
Total population
Low
Increasing
Very high
Decreasing
Low
Zero
Negative
Growth rate over time
Stages of Demographic Transition

27. What happens when demographic trapping occurs?
Demographic Trap: when a country stays at stage 2 because population growth exceeds economic growth.
Reasons why countries get caught:
Shortage of skilled workers to produce high-tech products to compete in a global economy
Lack of financial capital and other resources
Sharp rise of debt to developed countries
Decreased economic assistance from developed countries

28. Why is empowering women important in reducing birth rates?

29. India vs. China India China Percentage of world 17% population 20%
1.1 billion
1.3 billion
Population (2025)
(estimated)
1.4 billion
1.4 billion
Illiteracy (%of adults)
47%
17%
Population under age 15(%)
36%
22%
Population growth rate (%)
1.7%
0.6%
Total fertility rate
3.1 children per woman (down from 5.3 in 1970)
1.7 children per woman (down from 5.7 in 1972)
Infant mortality rate 64 32
Life expectancy
62 years
71 years
GDP PPP per capita
$2,650
$4,520