1. Why are British ethnic minorities less likely to be offered places at highly selective universities? Vikki Boliver School of Applied Social Sciences Durham University SRHE and UALL joint seminar series 22 nd January 2015

2. Background to the research “…there are more young men from black backgrounds in prison in the UK than there are UK-domiciled undergraduate black male students attending Russell Group institutions” (Alan Milburn 2012 University Challenge p.21) “Just one British black Caribbean student was admitted to Oxford last year [in 2009]. That is not a misprint: one student. Merton College, Oxford, has not admitted a single black student for five years. At Robinson College, Cambridge, a white applicant is four times more likely to be successful than a black applicant. […] Applications are being made but places are not being awarded.” (David Lammy writing in The Guardian, 6 Dec 2010)

3. Background to the research

5. Posited explanations 1)Ethnic minorities are less likely to achieve the grades needed to qualify for entry to highly selective universities “School attainment is the single biggest barrier to getting more black students to Oxford. […] If Mr Lammy thinks Oxford and Cambridge's data makes "shocking reading", he should try the national figures. In 2009, 29,000 white students got the requisite grades for Oxford (AAA excluding general studies), compared to just 452 black students.” (Sally Mapstone writing in The Guardian, 9 December 2010) Some ethnic minority groups do perform less well at A-level …but are ethnic minority applicants just as likely to receive offers from Russell Group universities as White applicants when they have the same A-level grades?

6. Posited explanations 2)Ethnic minority applicants study the wrong subjects at A-level “Our consistent advice is that taking two facilitating subjects will keep a wide range of degree courses and career options open to you. This is because these are the subjects most commonly required by our universities and hundreds of courses require one or more facilitating subjects.” (Wendy Piatt, Director General of the Russell Group, 27 September 2013) ‘Facilitating subjects’: Biology, Chemistry, English Literature, Geography, History, Languages, Maths, Physics Are ethnic minorities just as likely to receive offers from Russell Group universities as White applicants with the same ’facilitating subjects’ at A-level?

7. Posited explanations 3)Ethnic minority applicants disproportionately choose degree subjects that are heavily oversubscribed “Our own recent analysis shows that subject choice is a major reason for the lower success rate. Black students apply disproportionately for the three most oversubscribed subjects: 44% of black applicants, compared to just 17% of white applicants.” (Sally Mapstone, Pro-VC of Oxford University, writing in The Guardian, 9 December 2010) “Black and Asian students tend to apply to more competitive subjects, such as Medicine, which results in a disproportionately high rate of rejection and therefore lower participation rates.” (Jon Beard, Director of Undergraduate Recruitment at Cambridge University, 2 December 2010)

8. Posited explanations 3)Ethnic minority applicants disproportionately choose degree subjects that are heavily oversubscribed “One of the interesting things I have discovered is that one of the underlying reasons for the under-representation of ethnic minorities in some highly selective universities is because they apply predominantly for medicine and law, both highly competitive courses…” (Les Ebdon, Director of OFFA, quoted in The Sunday Times, 20 January 2013) Ethnic minorities are concentrated in certain subjects, including some that are highly numerically competitive …but does this account for their lower offer rates?

9. Posited explanations 4)Admissions selectors may seek, consciously or unconsciously, to admit a study body that is ethnically representative of the wider population Ethnic minority applicants are unevenly distributed across subject-institution combinations If fairness is conceived of as representativeness rather than equal treatment, this may lead to the disproportionate rejection of ethnic minority applicants from courses where ethnic minorities make up disproportionately large share of applicants

10. Posited explanations Some evidence that universities do conceive of fairness as being about the representativeness of the student body Arguably legitimate to pursue representativeness at the expense of equal treatment  fairness at the aggregate level rather than the individual level, in outcome if not process But in any case, the 2010 Equality Act requires universities, as public institutions, to ensure that they do not unlawfully discriminate against applicants on the basis of any of nine ‘protected characteristics’, including ethnicity

11. Research questions Can ethnic inequalities in the odds of receiving an offer from a Russell Group university be accounted for by controlling for applicants’ grades and subjects at A-level? Can any remaining ethnic group differences in offer rates be explained by controlling for the numerical competitiveness of different subject areas at different Russell Group universities? Do ethnic inequalities in offer rates increase as the percentage of ethnic minority applicants increases?

12. Data and methods Micro-data on applications to full-time undergraduate courses submitted via UCAS 10% random sample of all ‘home’ applicants seeking entry in 2010, 2011 and 2012. N = 151,281 applications to Russell Group universities submitted by N = 68,632 applicants Unit of analysis is applications rather than applicants Use of binary logistic regression models to predict the odds of receiving an offer from a Russell Group university rather than being rejected, conditional on application

13. Predictor variables Applicant’s declared ethnicity Other applicant characteristics, incl. school type and POLAR2 Number of A*, A, B, C, D and E grades at A-level, or UCAS points equivalent Facilitating subjects at A-level (Biology, Chemistry, English Literature, Geography, History, Languages, Maths, Physics) Withheld from admissions selectors, but clues in application form Actual not predicted grades; no data on AS-levels or GCSEs Generic rather than degree course specific

14. Predictor variables The numerical competitiveness of the applicant’s chosen course as indicated by the initial rejection rate for each of 23 degree subject areas (e.g. ‘Medicine & Dentistry’) at each of the 20 then- members of the Russell Group The percentage of applicants who are ethnic minorities as indicated by the percentage of applicants to each degree subject area at each Russell Group university who self-identified as ethnic minority rather than White (centred on the mean for RG applicants of 20%) Unobserved heterogeneity due to use of broad degree subject areas rather than specific degree courses

15. Descriptive statistics

16. Multivariate results

20. Interaction with % EM applicants

21. Spurious main effect of ethnicity? Have their A-level grades under-predicted Have poorer GCSE/AS grades Not have the combination of A- level subjects required for entry to their chosen course Apply to the most over- subscribed courses within the subject areas used here Possible overstatement of ethnic inequalities if ethnic minority applicants are more likely than White applicants to: Could be implicated in indirect discrimination Reason & significance? Could signal poorer A-level subject availability &/or quality of subject advice Need for more detailed UCAS data

22. Spurious interaction effect? Possible that the interaction between applicant’s ethnicity and the proportion of applicants who are ethnic minorities is actually driven by something else… Something which correlates with the percentage of ethnic minority applicants AND which legitimately widens the ethnic gap in acceptance rates ?

23. In prospect Worth experimenting with removing applicants’ names from UCAS forms to see if ethnic disparities in offer rates diminish Need more detailed UCAS data to explore the role played by several potentially key variables including GCSE and AS grades, predicted A-level grades, A-level subject requirements, and specific degree course applied to Need UCAS data for 2013 entry and beyond to monitor whether ethnic group differences in offer rates from Russell Group universities increase or decrease in the future An urgent need to challenge UCAS’s decision to stop supplying individual-level data to third parties for independent analysis

25. Why are British ethnic minorities less likely to be offered places at highly selective universities? Vikki Boliver School of Applied Social Sciences Durham University SRHE and UALL joint seminar series 22 nd January 2015