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AUTOMOTIVE BEAUTY COMMERCIAL TECHNOLOGY CONSUMER TECHNOLOGY ENTERTAINMENT FASHION FOOD & BEVERAGE FOODSERVICE HOME OFFICE SUPPLIES SOFTWARE SPORTS TOYS WIRELESS 1 Top Line Report on the In-Home Potato Market Prepared by: The NPD Group’s National Eating Trends® March 2009 Copyright 2007. The NPD Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This presentation is Proprietary and Confidential and may not be disclosed in any manner, in whole or in part, to any third party without the express written consent of NPD.
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Proprietary and Confidential 2 Topline Summary Consumption of Potatoes in-home has remained fairly stable over the last 5 years, with 79% of individuals consuming Potatoes at least once in an average two-week period. While things have been stable in recent years, it is worth noting that consumption is down notably compared to 10+ years ago. Mashed continues to be the dominant type of Potato consumed. When it comes to form, fresh is still #1 but consumption of this key form is the lowest it has been in 15 years. Frozen, which had recently been displaying small growth year-over-year, took a small downturn in 2008. Dinner meals with “Center of the Plate” protein continue to be quite stable. Poultry is the largest of the Proteins at these meals, followed by Beef. Additionally, Seafood consumption is currently at a a 10 year high! Despite the stability of protein’s presence at dinner, Potato’s presence at these protein dinner meals continues to decline. Among the 4 proteins examined, Potatoes are most likely to be present alongside Beef and Pork/Ham. The percent of adults reporting they are on a Low Carb/High Protein diet declined for the 4 th year in a row. Diet status is much more likely to negatively influence the consumption of Potato Chips than Potatoes. In fact, adults who report being on a Diabetic/Low Sugar and/or Low Sodium diet consume Potatoes at an above average rate.
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Proprietary and Confidential 3 Methodology This study examines trends in in-home potato consumption trends. Data is collected from a balanced panel of 2000 households, who report all foods and beverages consumed by all individuals during an average two-week period via a paper diary. –In-Home includes all foods and beverages prepared and/or consumed in the home. Includes carried meals, ie. ‘brown bag lunches’. Please note that the data is measured as an “ eating ” and does not attempt to measure actual volume consumed. Panel is balanced to the U.S. Census on key demographic variables and is distributed evenly throughout the year so that all seasons are represented equally.
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Proprietary and Confidential 4 Total Potato Eatings In-Home - Annual Eatings per Capita Years Ending November Per capita consumption of Potatoes has been relatively stable since 2004.
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Proprietary and Confidential 5 The stabilization of Potato consumption is influenced by reach, though there has been a slight decline in frequency among consumers. % of Individuals Consuming In-Home in Avg. Two Weeks Potatoes Pot. Chips Potatoes Pot. Chips Eatings per Eater In-Home in Avg. Two Weeks Years Ending November
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Proprietary and Confidential 6 Annual In-Home Potato Eatings per Capita by Type Baked... fairly stable since ‘02 Other/Specialty … leveled since ‘03 Boiled/Steamed … incremental decline Other Fried … continued declines French Fries … incremental growth since ‘04 Mashed … growth is level – highest consumption among all types Years ending November, base dish eatings Mashed continues to be the largest form of Potatoes, and French Fries have shown the most growth of all the types since 2004.
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Proprietary and Confidential 7 Consumption of Fresh Potatoes continues to decline in annual eatings, while Frozen and Instant are fairly stable. Annual Eatings per Capita - Total In-Home Potatoes 10 year point change: -15.4 +1.7 +0.8 Years Ending November
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Proprietary and Confidential 8 The decline in Fresh Potatoes is due to the combination of fewer users and less frequent consumption among those who do consume. Total In-Home Potato Consumption By Form Years Ending November Penetration (2 week) Eatings Per Eater (2 week)
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Proprietary and Confidential 9 Lifecycles with families/children are the heaviest in-home Potato consumers, particularly Low/Mid-Income Traditional Families. Affluent households are less likely to consume Potatoes than their low/middle income counterparts. Annual Total In-Home Potato Eatings per Household Avg.= 174 % of Sample HH: 8% 12% 5% 9% 7% 10% 9% 12% 11% 5% 6% 7% Two Years Ending November ‘08 Potato Consumption (per HH) by Life Cycle
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Proprietary and Confidential 10 Annual Total In-Home Potato Eatings per Capita Avg.= 71 Per Capita Potato Consumption by Lifecycle % of Sample Individuals: 4% 7% 4% 13% 9% 15% 16% 10% 11% 3% 6% 4% Two Years Ending November ‘08 Individuals in the Senior lifecycles consume more than their fair share, while those in the Affluent lifecycles consume at a lower rate.
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Proprietary and Confidential 11 Although Base Dish Proteins at Dinner have shown growth/stability, the presence of Potatoes at these meals continues to decline. Total Base Dish Proteins Eaten at Dinner - % Including Potatoes AEPC=Annual Eatings per Capita Years Ending November * Slight Definitional change beginning with 1995 data
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Proprietary and Confidential 12 Poultry is the largest protein at dinner, and Seafood’s presence at dinner has shown the strongest growth among proteins. Annual Dinner Eatings Per Capita of Proteins Years Ending November BEEF … recent decline since ‘06 PORK/HAM … relatively stable POULTRY … fairly level ’05-’08 FISH/SEAFOOD … 10 year high! -0.7 vs. ‘04 -0.3 vs. ‘05 +0.1 vs. ‘05 +2.9 vs. ‘99
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Proprietary and Confidential 13 Potato’s presence has declined alongside all protein meals, with the most volatile decline with Fish/Seafood. % of Protein Meals at Dinner Which Included Potatoes * BEEF … decline of potatoes served with beef has leveled off in the last couple of years. PORK/HAM … potato’s presence at pork/ham meals has experienced a bouncing decline. POULTRY … potato’s presence at poultry meals is at a 10 year low! FISH/SEAFOOD … potato’s presence continues its volatile trend downward * Slight Definitional change beginning with 1995 data Years Ending November
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Proprietary and Confidential 14 Since 2000, the percent of dinner meals including potatoes has steadily declined, independent of the inclusion of Potato Chips. % of In-Home Dinner Meals Which Include Potatoes Years Ending November
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Proprietary and Confidential 15 External influences: Low carb diets gained momentum between ’02 and ’04, but this diet trend is declining. % of Adults on a Low Carb/High Protein Diet Years Ending November
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Proprietary and Confidential 16 Most diet types have leveled off in recent years, and weight related diets are still the most prevalent. % of Adults on a Diet by Specific Type Weight-Related Diets: Health-Related Diets: Years Ending November
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Proprietary and Confidential 17 Low Carb/High Protein dieters are the least likely of the diet types to consume Potatoes, followed by those on a Low Fat diet. Annual In-Home Eatings of Potatoes Avg.= 70.9 *Panelist can indicate multiple diets; adults only % of Sample : 78% 22% 3% 9% 7% 6% 5% 7% Two Years Ending November 2008
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Proprietary and Confidential 18 Individuals on a Low Carb or Low Fat diet are the least likely to consume Potato Chips. Annual In-home Eatings of Potato Chips Avg.= 25.9 *Panelist can indicate multiple diets; adults only Two Years Ending November 2008 % of Sample : 78% 22% 3% 9% 7% 6% 5% 7%
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Proprietary and Confidential 19 APPENDIX
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Proprietary and Confidential 20 Although Dinners with Base Dish Proteins have shown growth/stability, the presence of Potatoes at these meals continues to decline. Total Base Dish Protein Dinner Meals - % Including Potatoes AMPC=Annual Meals per Capita Years Ending November * Slight Definitional change beginning with 1995 data
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