1. Improving Coastal Assessment and Prediction in Australia: A Due Diligence Study John Parslow Arnold Dekker

2. Coastal assessment & prediction A National Coastal Assessment and Prediction System? Concept proposal developed in response to call by WfO at end of Springboard Theme. CSIRO engagement in coastal marine assessment and prediction primarily through scattered short-term case studies. Delivery of capability for assessment and prediction to coastal managers is inefficient and controversial e.g. Port Phillip Bay Channel Deepening, Tasmanian Pulp Mill, GBR. BlueLink provides a model for development and delivery of national infrastructure for ocean assessment and prediction. Can we extend that to the coastal zone?

3. Coastal assessment & prediction Due Diligence Study Consult with potential research and delivery partners: Bureau of Meteorology, Geosciences Australia, AIMS, DEWHA, … Consult with potential end users and clients esp Commonwealth agencies, state agencies, local government, environmental consultants Assess science base and feasibility Prepare a report and possibly a business case.

4. Coastal assessment & prediction Why do we need a Coastal Assessment and Prediction System? Catchments, urban / population, industry, climate Increasing demands for rigorous environmental assessment. Low community appetite for risk Hard trade-offs Simultaneous demands for: More accurate prediction and assessment Better quantification of uncertainty and risk Increased breadth of assessment – ecological, social, economic Interactions across uses, scales Rapid and cost-effective methods and tools

5. Coastal assessment & prediction Sophisticated local science products e.g. Sophisticated coupled 3-D hydrodynamic and biogeochemical models. Robust coastal ocean colour products

6. Coastal assessment & prediction Fragmented jurisdictions drive fragmented science Local case studies commissioned and undertaken independently. Duplication, reinvention, expensive, time-consuming Technical debates over quality and performance of models and assessment lead to costly delays Lack of data at regional and national levels to support national and regional policy and management.

7. Coastal assessment & prediction BlueLink – harnessing science and technology to deliver a step change in information quantity and quality

8. Coastal assessment & prediction Keys to BlueLink success Uses supercomputers to build models which span spatial scales from global to 10 km resolution in Australia’s EEZ; Exploits advanced observing technologies, including satellite remote sensing and robotic sensor networks; Uses data assimilation to reduce and quantify model forecast error, dynamically interpolate among sparse observation to estimate current and past ocean states, and assess the effectiveness of alternative observing elements and strategies; Avoids the uncertainty involved in specifying open boundary conditions in local models, and in fact provides boundary conditions for local models, including custom relocatable models; Provides an ideal basis for dynamically downscaling global climate scenarios; As a partnership across national research and operational agencies (CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology, Royal Australian Navy), provides an effective model for delivery as well as development.

9. Coastal assessment & prediction Data Assimilation: Combining Model and Data Model Field AltimeterArgo SST Moorings XBT Analysis

10. Coastal assessment & prediction Impact of Remotely Sensed & In-situ Data on Prediction and Hindcast Errors

11. Coastal assessment & prediction OFAM1.0 0.1  0.1  ROAM Downscaling: Climate to Regional to Coastal 2km  2km Every 20 th grid point is shown

12. Coastal assessment & prediction CAPS Components 1 – A national continental shelf information system Data-assimilating continental shelf hydrodynamic, sediment, biogeochemical models, 2 km resolution, nested in BlueLink. National remote sensing of continental shelf: SST, coastal altimetry, ocean colour (Chl, CDOM, TSS). Shelf in-situ observing system, built from IMOS? Moorings, gliders, coastal radar. Linked national catchment system for flows, loads from major catchments

13. Coastal assessment & prediction A national continental shelf model

14. Coastal assessment & prediction Region 3: Burdekin MODIS Aqua 26. JAN. 2008 CHL [mg m -3 ] CDOM [m -1 ] NAP [g m -3 ] Kd [m -1 ] RGB 0.11.01020 0.11.010 0.020.11 0.00.20.40.60.81.0 Coastal water quality products could be produced nationally.

15. Coastal assessment & prediction IMOS Shelf Observing Facilities and Nodes Shelf moorings Gliders Coastal Radars Remote Sensing Data management and delivery Regional Nodes GBROOS NSW IMOS SAIMOS WAIMOS

16. Coastal assessment & prediction CAPS Component 2: Relocatable inshore observing systems Relocatable inshore models - hydrodynamics, sediments, biogeochemistry – nested inside shelf model (build on ROAM platform) Data assimilation: state and parameter estimation Observing system design tool: data needed to achieve specified model performance Inshore remote sensing Low cost sensors and sensor networks Link to relocatable catchment system.

17. Coastal assessment & prediction Priority research Needs Data assimilation and model-data fusion (new community of practice and CSS Platform) Computational science eg exploiting massively parallel computers, GPUs (CSS Platform) Novel low cost sensors – Sensors Cluster, SSN Platform Novel platforms and networks – SSN Platform, Starbug, … Remote Sensing Testing and extending robust coastal algorithms Data assimilation of satellite signal Intelligent information systems, visualisation, web delivery

18. Coastal assessment & prediction CAPS as an Integrated Catchment – Marine system National catchment information system for flows and loads Extend WRON to water quality National vs relocatable Parallel research priorities Data assimilation Sensor networks Remote sensing Information systems

19. Coastal assessment & prediction Questions about scope 1.CAPS as presented is about coupled marine hydrodynamic, sediment dynamic and biogeochemical models and observations, but… 2.What about coastal inundation, coastal erosion, wave state? (Climate change impacts and adaptation). 3.Should we stop at water quality, or extend to marine ecosystems?

20. Coastal assessment & prediction Way Forward CAPS Stream in ORCA Develop tools and methods through existing projects and case studies: BlueLink, SE Tas, SEQ, SW WA, SSN, CSS Platforms, Sensors Cluster Engagement: Commonwealth and State agencies Potential Partners (BoM, GA, AIMS) SMEs (Consultants, Niche manufacturing)