1. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 2006-2016 LONG-TERM EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK Presenter: Victoria Udalova, Economist Office of Economic Advisors WI Department of Workforce Development

2. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 Today We Will Talk About…  Aging Population  Long-Term Employment Outlook: Career Clusters (growth & openings) Fastest Growing Occupations Education & Training  Wisconsin vs. U.S.

3. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 If only it was that easy…

4. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 Population & Labor Force in U.S. Note: Shaded region represents projected period. Source: Office of Economic Advisors’ analysis of data from U.S. Bureau of Labor

5. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 Population & Labor Force in WI Note: Shaded region represents projected period. Source: Office of Economic Advisors’ analysis of data from WI Department of Administration Demographic Services Center, U.S. Census Bureau, and U.S. Bureau of Labor

6. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 Wisconsin’s Potential Labor Force “Entrants” & “Exiters” Source: WI Department of Administration, Demographic Services Center

7. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 How Will Aging Population Affect Labor Market? Aging Population Supply of Workers Shrinks Baby-Boomers Retire

8. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 Employers won’t be as fortunate as in the past…

9. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 How to Deal With This Issue? Increase Skills & Education Wages Rise “More with Less” Capital Intensity Rise Change in demand for goods Productivity Increases

10. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 Fundamental Questions of Projections  Looking back, how have economic, technological, demographic, social, and political forces shaped employment?  How will these forces change in the future?  What are the consequences of these changes for future employment levels?

11. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 Another Fundamental Question of Projections Are you willing to be wrong?

12. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 Inputs  DATA Historic employment National projections Explanatory variables  KNOWLEDGE AND INSIGHT Victoria OEA Staff Panel Members US Bureau of Labor Statistics Staff Other States’ Projections Staff

13. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 But even in the best of circumstances our knowledge is incomplete …  Shocks  New, previously unknown, industries and occupations may appear  Industries and occupations that exist elsewhere, but not previously in Wisconsin, may appear

14. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 WI Nonfarm Wage and Salary Employment, 1939-2007, and Projected 2016 Note: Shaded regions represent recessions as designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Employment figures on this graph do not include self-employed, unpaid family workers, and private households. Source: Current Employment Statistics (CES) & Office of Economic Advisors, WI Projections 2006-2016 2016 Projection

15. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 U.S. & WI Employment Growth Rate by Clusters, 2006-2016 Source: Analysis of 2006-16 US Projections, BLS & 2006-16 WI Projections, Office of Economic Advisors, DWD

16. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 U.S. & WI Employment Growth Rate by Clusters, 2006-2016 (continued) Source: Analysis of 2006-16 US Projections, BLS & 2006-16 WI Projections, Office of Economic Advisors, DWD

17. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 U.S. Annual Job Openings by Clusters, 2006-16 Source: Analysis of 2006-16 US Projections, BLS & 2006-16 WI Projections, Office of Economic Advisors, DWD

18. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 U.S. Annual Job Openings by Clusters, 2006-16 (continued) Source: Analysis of 2006-16 US Projections, BLS & 2006-16 WI Projections, Office of Economic Advisors, DWD

19. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 Replacement Needs Will Increase in the Future Net replacement openings need to be considered when exploring the future prospects of any occupation. The need to fill replacement openings will only increase over the next decade as the first wave of baby boomers begin to retire.

20. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 When I grow up, I’m going to be an electrical engineer and when that field is down, I’m going to go into real estate and when that slows down, I’m going to go into…” The economy is shifting to a knowledge-based work where continuous retraining throughout careers will become even more important than the initial training when entering the workforce.

21. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 Today Presentation’s Focus Clusters…  Marketing: Marketing Mgmt Professional Sales Merchandising Marketing Communications Marketing Research  IT: Network Systems Information Support & Services Web & Digital Communications Programming & Software Dev.  Business, Mgmt & Administration General Mgmt Business Information Mgmt Human Resources Mgmt Operations Mgmt Administrative Support  STEM: Engineering & Technology Science & Math

22. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 Top Ten Fastest Growing & High Paying Occupations Note: Only occupations with at least 25,000 jobs in 2016 & with above the nation’s ann. median wage for all jobs ($30,400) are included. Source: Analysis of 2006-16 US Projections, BLS; Office of Economic Advisors, DWD 2006-2016 U.S. Employment Outlook

23. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 Top Ten Fastest Growing & High Paying Occupations Note: Only occupations with at least 25,000 jobs in 2016 & with above the nation’s ann. median wage for all jobs ($30,400) are included. Source: Analysis of 2006-16 US Projections, BLS; Office of Economic Advisors, DWD 2006-2016 U.S. Employment Outlook

24. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 Top Ten Fastest Growing & High Paying Occupations Note: Only occupations with at least 25,000 jobs in 2016 & with above the nation’s ann. median wage for all jobs ($30,400) are included. Source: Analysis of 2006-16 US Projections, BLS; Office of Economic Advisors, DWD 2006-2016 U.S. Employment Outlook

25. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 Top Ten Fastest Growing & High Paying Occupations Note: Only occupations with at least 25,000 jobs in 2016 & with above the nation’s ann. median wage for all jobs ($30,400) are included. Source: Analysis of 2006-16 US Projections, BLS; Office of Economic Advisors, DWD 2006-2016 U.S. Employment Outlook

26. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 Top Ten Fastest Growing & High Paying Occupations Note: Only occupations with at least 500 jobs in 2016 & with above the state’s ann. median wage for all jobs ($30,395) are included. Source: 2006-16 Wisconsin Projections, Office of Economic Advisors, DWD 2006-2016 WISCONSIN Employment Outlook

27. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 Top Ten Fastest Growing & High Paying Occupations Note: Only occupations with at least 500 jobs in 2016 & with above the state’s ann. median wage for all jobs ($30,395) are included. Source: 2006-16 Wisconsin Projections, Office of Economic Advisors, DWD 2006-2016 WISCONSIN Employment Outlook

28. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 Top Ten Fastest Growing & High Paying Occupations Note: Only occupations with at least 500 jobs in 2016 & with above the state’s ann. median wage for all jobs ($30,395) are included. Source: 2006-16 Wisconsin Projections, Office of Economic Advisors, DWD 2006-2016 WISCONSIN Employment Outlook

29. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 Top Ten Fastest Growing & High Paying Occupations Note: Only occupations with at least 500 jobs in 2016 & with above the state’s ann. median wage for all jobs ($30,395) are included. Source: 2006-16 Wisconsin Projections, Office of Economic Advisors, DWD 2006-2016 WISCONSIN Employment Outlook

30. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 Wisconsin’s Industry Employment, 2006 & 2016 (in thousands jobs) Source: Office of Economic Advisors, Wisconsin Projections 2006-2016

31. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 U.S. Industry Employment, 2006 & 2016 (in thousands jobs) Source: 2006-2016 U.S. Projections, BLS & Office of Economic Advisors, DWD

32. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 Wisconsin’s Top Ten Industries with the Most New Jobs, 2006 & 2016 Source: Office of Economic Advisors, Wisconsin Projections 2006-2016

33. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 Job Openings by Major Occupational Group 2006 & 2016 Source: Office of Economic Advisors, Wisconsin Projections 2006-2016

34. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 Top Ten Wisconsin Occupations with the Most Job Openings, 2006 & 2016 Source: Office of Economic Advisors, Wisconsin Projections 2006-2016

35. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 Job Openings by Education and Training 2006 & 2016 Source: Office of Economic Advisors, Wisconsin Projections 2006-2016 ST OJT = short-term on-the-job training MT OJT = moderate-term on-the-job training LT OJT = long-term on-the-job training WORK = work experience in a related occupation VOC = postsecondary vocational training AA/AS = associate degree BA/BS = bachelor’s degree BA PLUS = more than a bachelor’s degree 31%

36. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 Bottom Line As the nation’s labor force tries to stay competitive in the global marketplace, more emphasis will be placed on education and training. In today’s economy, knowledge is becoming increasingly valuable, which is consistently reflected by high growth rates in employment in the occupations typically requiring some type of postsecondary education.

37. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 Education and Training, 2006 & 2016 Source: Office of Economic Advisors, Wisconsin Projections 2006-2016 Fastest growing occupations have higher education and training

38. Careers Conference 2009 January 26, 2009 For more information contact: Victoria Udalova Victoria.Udalova@dwd.wisconsin.gov (608) 267-9607 http://dwd.wisconsin.gov/oea