1. Ludovico Alcorta Development Policy, Statistics and Research Branch United Nations Industrial Development Organization International Economic Association Pretoria, 3-4 th July 2012 Industrial Structural Change, Growth Patterns and Industrial Policy

2. Outline Research for Industrial Policy Structural Change and Development Industrial Structural Change Research at UNIDO Results and Findings Applications to Industrial Policy Extensions 2

3. Research for Industrial Policy 3 1. Providing: Descriptive analysis on structural change and identifying manufacturing growth patterns Exploring relationships between patterns and stylized facts and their determinants 2. Embedding the analysis into a broader industrial policy assessment framework, which links the degree of economic attractiveness of industry to governments with aspects of the present and future feasibility of reaping those gains

4. Structural Change and Development Definitions –Long-term change in the composition of an aggregate (Syrquin, 2007) –Ability of an economy to constantly generate new dynamic activities characterized by higher productivity and increasing returns to scale (Ocampo, 2005; UNDESA, 2006) The importance of (industrial) structural change for economic growth –Sustained economic growth is associated with the speed and nature of structural change (McMillan and Rodrik, 2011; Ocampo and Vos, 2008; Taylor and Codrina, 2006) –Economic growth is associated with the size and growth of manufacturing industry (Prebisch, 1948; Kaldor, 1967; Rodrik, 2006) –Modern economic growth is a process of continuous technological innovation, industrial upgrading and technological diversification (Lin, 2012) –As countries get richer they diversify and produce a wider range of goods. Only at high level of incomes countries specialise (Imbs and Wacziarg, 2003) –Economic growth and industrial structural change are positively associated (UNDESA, 2006). How does structural change impact the rate of growth? –Reallocation effects –Shifts in resource endowments –Technological change and technological capabilities –Learning by doing –Intra-national trade 4

5. Structural change and economic growth 5

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11. Structural change and economic growth 11

12. Structural change and economic growth 12

13. Structural change and economic growth 13

14. Structural change and economic growth 14

15. Structural change and economic growth 15

16. Industrial Structural Change Research at UNIDO Starting point –Chenery’s work (Chenery and Watanabe 1958; Chenery 1960; Chenery and Taylor 1968, etc.) –UNIDO statistics Departures –Data: Value added in nominal and real terms 18 manufacturing industries Stretching into 120 countries Covers 45 years, 1963-2008 – Selection of appropriate estimation methodology: Cubic form Fixed effects estimation procedure to control for unobserved country conditions Variables expressed in logarithmic terms to measure elasticity in each variable 16 Where X stands for dependent variables – value added share, value added per capita output, value added per worker (labor productivity) and employment share.

17. Results and findings 1. Country-size matters 2. Most manufacturing sectors in large countries peak in terms of value added share in total MVA – there is an inverted U-pattern. 3. Manufacturing sectors in large countries peak in stages at different income levels 4. In sectors that peak early valued added, employment and labour productivity growth slow down as income expand 5. In middle-peaking sectors value added and employment growth slows down but labour productivity growth holds steady as income expand 6. In late industries value added and productivity grow faster compensating for the slow down in employment 17

18. Results and Findings 18 1. Country-size matters : e.g. food and beverages

19. Results and Findings 19 2. Most manufacturing sectors in large countries peak in terms of value added share in total MVA – there is an inverted U-pattern.

20. Results and Findings 20 3. Manufacturing sectors in large countries peak at different income stages - early-peaking, middle-peaking and late-peaking sectors.

21. Results and Findings 21 4. Early Industries: Slow down of value added, employment and productivity as incomes grow but……

22. Results and Findings 22 5. Middle Industries: Slow down of value added and employment is kept in check by productivity growth except for…

23. Results and Findings 23 6. Late industries: Value added and labor productivity grow much faster than GDP growth arresting the slow down in employment growth

24. Applications to Industrial Policy Benchmarking –Any country at any level of income –Grouping of countries Entry and exit points –At which level of income an industry becomes attractive according to its value added growth, labour productivity and employment potential –At which level of income the value added growth, labour productivity and employment potential may no longer be attractive 24

25. Application: Comparison Egypt, South Korea and Large Countries 25

26. 26 Application: Comparison Egypt, South Korea and Large Countries

27. 27 Application: Comparison Egypt, South Korea and Large Countries

28. 28 Application: Comparison Egypt, South Korea and Large Countries

29. 29 Application: Comparison Egypt, South Korea and Large Countries

30. 30 Application: Comparison South Africa, South Korea and Large Countries

31. 31 Application: Comparison South Africa, South Korea and Large Countries

32. 32 Application: Comparison South Africa, South Korea and Large Countries

33. 33 Application: Comparison South Africa, South Korea and Large Countries

34. 34 Application: Comparison South Africa, South Korea and Large Countries

35. Application: entry and exit points 35 Growth charts: fastest and slowest growing – early, middle and late sectors Real GDP per capita (PPP adjusted) in Korea in 2007: 23,900 US$ Real GDP per capita (PPP adjusted) in South Africa in 2007: 10,400 US$ Real GDP per capita (PPP adjusted) in Egypt in 2007: 5,700 US$

36. Application: entry and exit points 36 Growth charts: fastest and slowest growing – early, middle and late sectors Real GDP per capita (PPP adjusted) in Egypt in 2007: 5,700 US$ Real GDP per capita (PPP adjusted) in South Africa in 2007: 10,400 US$ Real GDP per capita (PPP adjusted) in Korea in 2007: 23,900 US$

37. Application: entry and exit points 37 Growth charts: fastest and slowest growing – early, middle and late sectors Real GDP per capita (PPP adjusted) in Egypt in 2007: 5,700 US$ Real GDP per capita (PPP adjusted) in South Africa in 2007: 10,400 US$ Real GDP per capita (PPP adjusted) in Korea in 2007: 23,900 US$

38. Extensions New variables: capital-labor ratio, wages, firm size, total factor productivity, resource intensity (energy, water) Extension of the country classification: population density, natural resource endowments, landlocked More detailed manufacturing classification – 4 digit ISIC Expansion to international trade data Exploration of linkages through input-output relations 38

39. THANK YOU!