1. Scenario development for policy analysis: experiences in Europe and the Netherlands G.H. Martinus ECN Policy Studies, The Netherlands

2. EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004 Introduction Europe -Cascade Mints (Introduction of hydrogen) Medium- and Long-term policy scenarios Netherlands -WLO -Referentieramingen

3. EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004 Cascade Mints Modelling possible configurations of a hydrogen economy and using models to study its prospects Joint case studies on policy issues with operational energy models PART 1PART 2 Coordinator: NTUA Coordinator: ECN Administrative Coordinator: NTUA

4. EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004 CM Part II – background Long term challenges for the energy sector -Environmental impacts -Security of supply -Acceptable costs -Global interactions Key drivers for change -Economical growth -Availability of resources -Technological development -Infrastructure -Geopolitical situation -Policies -Preferences

5. EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004 CM Part II – objectives Investigate the role of different policies in improving security of supply, reducing GHG emissions and fostering technological innovation -What will happen without intervention? -What room is available for policy intervention -Show consequences (energy mix, emissions, SoS, cost) -Analyse trade-offs and synergies on different policy issues Enhance the communication between model experts and policy-makers Build consensus among model experts

6. EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004 CM Part II – classification of models

7. EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004 CM Part II – baseline Harmonization of drivers -IPCC B2 storyline -Resource prices (oil, coal, gas) -Economic growth -European policies (2003-2012, CO 2 tax) -Depending on model type Analysis of outcome (Europe, world) -Primary energy demand -Security of supply -Emissions

8. EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004 CM Part II – Final energy intensity

9. EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004 CM Part II – CO 2 emissions

10. EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004 CM Part II – production mix in 2030

11. EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004 CM Part II – key messages for Europe in 2030 Energy consumption grows with some 20-25% in 2000-2030; dominated by fossil fuels -Increasing import dependency (up to 70%) Uncertain: Power generation mix -Growers: natural gas and renewables (wind, biomass) -Decrease: oil -Large variety in the prospects for coal technologies and nuclear power -New Member States: increasing contribution from natural gas and renewables at expense of coal Share of electricity in final demand increases; fastest growth in new Member States Mixed message on CO 2 due to increasing importance of natural gas

12. EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004 CM Part II - renewables Phase: scenario construction Focus: Europe, but world models contribute -Two approaches - Europe 2020, world 2050 -Use models according to strength -Several sub-questions Technological developments Impact on other important issues: employment, SoS, … Interregional dependence: spill-overs, relative growth, … -Major scenario assumption: EU targets (12 and 20% of primary energy consumption in 2020)

13. EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004 Relation to questions at EEA Baseline: harmonised view of business as usual Scenarios for policy cases -Focus on technology (renewables,nuclear, and CCS) indicates routes to GHG-reduction -Actually ‘families’: variants to provide rich detail Variety of models -Different modeling approaches with common framework to yield broad perspective -Insight into uncertainties

14. EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004 The Netherlands - WLO (Welfare and Physical Surroundings) WLO: 4 long-term scenario’s on welfare, environment and spatial aspects (2040) for the Netherlands Based on European scenarios (Four Futures) -CPB: Four futures for Energy Markets and Climate Change, http://www.cpb.nl/nl/pub/bijzonder/52/bijz52.pdf -In line with world storylines (IPCC) Principal contributors: planning bureaus (CPB, MNP, RPB) ECN subcontractor on scenario development concerning energy and CO 2

15. EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004 The Netherlands - WLO (Welfare and Physical Surroundings) Main driving forces are developments of the EU; geopolitics; global trade; population; labour; public sector. Basis for strategic policy analysis on technology development; agriculture; transport and infrastructure; spatial planning; environment; energy etc. Energy and CO2 (except the transport part) is now drafted. WLO will probably be completed in spring 2005

16. EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004 The Netherlands- RR Referentieraming (Reference Projection): developments 2010/2020 Provides a reference for policies on future developments in the Netherlands -Reference for meeting policy targets -Benchmark for alternative/additional policies -Analyse effectiveness of policies -Large level of sectoral and technological detail WLO provides background and long-term framework for RR RR will be completed in december 2004

17. EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004 Relevant websites Cascade Mints -http://www.e3mlab.ntua.gr/cascade.html Four futures for Europe, WLO: -http://www.cpb.nl/eng/ Reference Projection (Referentieraming): -http://www.ecn.nl/