1. 1 The Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization for Nuclear Facilities Project (CEUS-SSC): Updating Seismic Source Models for the Next Generation of Critical Facilities Jon Ake U.S. NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research Regulatory Information Conference March 11, 2009

2. 2 Outline Regulatory Background Existing Seismic Hazard Models Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Report Need for a new study Scope and Status Summary

3. 3 Seismic Hazards-Safe Shutdown Earthquake (SSE) Deterministic The earthquake which would cause the maximum vibratory ground motion at the site. Defined by peak ground acceleration (pga) and standardized response spectra. (10 CFR Part 100 Appendix A) Probabilistic Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) incorporates the effects of all earthquakes capable of affecting the site including uncertainty. (10 CFR Part 100.23, 1997- present)

4. 4 Current Regulatory Guidance Regulatory Guide 1.208 provides general guidance on procedures acceptable to NRC staff to satisfy 10 CFR 100.23. -Perform a PSHA (incorporating uncertainty) -Conduct site and region specific geoscience/geotechnical investigations -Allows use of EPRI or LLNL probabilistic seismic hazard models as a starting point

5. 5 Previous PSHA Studies The NRC began using PSHA in the early 1980’s as a tool to better understand deterministic seismic hazard assessments (and associated uncertainties) and input for risk-informed and performance-based safety evaluations. Two major PSHA regional-scale studies were performed in the 1980’s and early 1990’s, EPRI-SOG (1986,1989) and LLNL (1985, 1993). Both were multi-studies (multiple years, multiple millions of $, multiple experts, multiple feet of bookshelf space for documentation). Defined the state of the art at the time.

6. 6 However, ……

7. 7 Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) A group of senior experts assembled to evaluate the differences between the EPRI and LLNL studies and provide guidance on the conduct of PSHA. Concluded the differences in the results were primarily procedural rather than technical. The report focused on the appropriate use of experts (NUREG/CR-6372). The guidance has now been used for several major studies (Yucca Mountain (2), Swiss PEGASOS study, EPRI ground motion update, BC Hydro).

8. 8 SSHAC Methodology Provides a framework for incorporating scientific assessments > The views of the larger scientific community are fundamental (Goal to incorporate the center, body and range of the Informed Technical Community (ITC)) > Competing scientific hypotheses can be compared and uncertainties captured > Leads to defined expert roles (Focus on evaluation and integration) and an emphasis on expert interaction > Results represent a snapshot in time

9. 9 SSHAC Framework Courtesy of K. Coppersmith TI: Technical Integrator TFI: Technical Facilitator Integrator

10. 10 The Need for a New CEUS-SSC Model A need exists for a fully updated generic seismic source model for the CEUS that post dates issuance of 10 CFR 100.23. More than 20 years have past and significant new research results exist that are not represented in the original EPRI/LLNL models. Recent COL applications have used the EPRI model with updates. Expense and consistency of updates to the existing PSHA source model is an issue. The existence of multiple hazard models (LLNL, EPRI, USGS) is problematic. A model that meets the needs of multiple users/sponsors/regulators would be of great value.

11. 11 The CEUS-SSC Project Multiple sponsors (Industry/EPRI, DOE, NRC) Conducted as a SSHAC Level 3 with a TI team, PPRP, and sponsor reviewers. Large pool of experience represented. Major emphasis on the compilation of a data base of relevant seismological, geological, geophysical, and tectonic information. SSC: where earthquakes will occur, how big will they be, and how often will they happen. PPRP: Participatory Peer Review Panel

12. 12 Earthquakes and NPPs USGS Catalog of Felt/Damaging Earthquakes in the USA 1568 - 2004 Nuclear power plant locations

13. 13 CEUS-SSC Project

14. TaskSchedule Retain Participatory Peer Review PanelApril – May 2008 Database DevelopmentApril 2008 – May 2009 Seismicity CatalogApril 2008 – June 2009 Assessment of Hazard-Significant IssuesApril – July 2008 Workshop 1 Significant Issues and DatabasesJuly 22 – 23 2008 Workshop 2 Alternative InterpretationsFebruary 18 – 20 2009 Construct Preliminary SSC ModelDecember 2008 – Aug 2009 Develop Hazard Input Document and SSC Sensitivity Analyses May – June 2009 Perform Preliminary Hazard Calculations and Sensitivity Analyses June – July 2009 Workshop 3 FeedbackAugust 25 – 26 2009 Finalize SSC ModelAugust – November 2009 Document CEUS SSC Project in Draft ReportOct 2009 – February 2010 Review Draft Report by PPRP and OthersFebruary – March 2010 Finalize and Issue CEUS SSC reportApril – July 2010 Meeting with NRC and DNFSBAugust 2010 DNFSB: Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board

15. 15 1989 EPRI-SOG Source Regions The EPRI-SOG study provided seismic source geometries for CEUS. Six independent expert teams developed independent models. The example shown is for the Dames and Moore source model. In CEUS seismic sources are usually defined as “area sources”, since earthquakes cannot be correlated directly with existing faults.

16. 16 Tectonic-Based Seismic Sources BEC: Bechtel Earth Science Team

17. Alternative Tectonic Sources: USGS Model

18. 18 Courtesy of K. Coppersmith

19. 19 CEUS-SSC Results Results will be a SSC Model (where, how big and how often). Must be used with Ground Motion Prediction Model to produce hazard estimates. To use for site licensing, applicable regulatory guidance (e.g. NRC R.G. 1.208) should be followed. Involves augmenting CEUS-SSC model with site specific evaluation within region (200 mile radius) and site vicinity (25 mile radius).

20. 20 SUMMARY: CEUS-SSC for Nuclear Facilities Project A major multi-sponsor Seismic Source Characterization project is currently underway. The results will replace the existing EPRI-SOG and LLNL source models. The major objectives are to provide stability (public confidence that the views of the larger ITC have been represented) and longevity (technical framework remains valid in the future, even as new information becomes available). Broad participation from industry, NRC, DOE, USGS, academia. Target completion date of late-2010.