1. COMMUNICATING FORECASTS AND WARNINGS TO DECISION MAKERS Presented by HUGO YEPES In cooperation with Pablo Palación al¡nd the Volcanology team INSTITUTO GEOFISICO – EPN SERVICO NACIONAL DE SISMOLOGIA Y VULCANOLOGIA – SENASV hyepes@igepn.edu.ec www.igepn.edu.ec Best Practices in Near-Term Eruption Forecasting Ettore Majorana foundation and Centre for Scientific Culture Erice, Italy 11-15 September 2011

2. OUTLINE Introductory premises Some definitions about the message and recipients of warnings Strong and weak communication connections: Tungurahua Volcano case study The Seismic Activity Index as a medium to short term forecaster The Seismo-Acoustic Index (BRUN or RUNTUN index) as a short term warning

3. INTRODUCTORY PREMISES Scientists should have a thorough understanding of the volcano and of what they know and what they don’t. Uncertainties should be communicated. In order to communicate volcanic hazards, forecasts, warnings, alerts, it is absolutely important to have an acceptable knowledge of the key actors (stakeholders?) taking part in a potentially dangerous eruption. Adjustments in the message are needed for different actors. Alert/crisis communications should be delivered opportunely and taking into careful how the massage will be delivered to different actors.

4. SOME NON-SCIENTIFIC DEFINITIONS FOR SCIENTISTS FORECAST: a prediction or estimate of future events WARNING: a statement or event that indicates a possible or impending danger ---------------------------------- ACTOR: a participant in an action or process SOCIAL ACTOR: a collective body, with an identity and values, whose members are modifiers of their circumstances, generators of action strategies in order to transform society Social actors are characterized by the recognition of who makes what, how, with what objective, with whom and with what results. Who are they? –community organizations, local councils, NGOs, entrepreneurs, real stators, financial sectors, unions…… scientists? STAKEHOLDER: a person with an interest or concern in something; a type of organization or system in which all the members or participants are seen as having an interest in its success Modified from Alain Touraine (1984), "Le retour de l'acteur, essai de sociologie", éd. Fayard, Paris, France.

5. POPULATION AT RISK VOLCANO DECISION MAKERS MEDIA SCIENTISTS KEY ACTORS and other players in the communication process

6. Communicating VOLCANIC UNREST (forecasts) POPULATION AT RISK VOLCANO DECISION MAKERS MEDIA SCIENTISTS OTHER CIENTISTS GENERAL PUBLIC Communicating VOLCANIC UNREST (forecasts)

7. NOTORIOUS VOLCANIC UNREST (warnings) POPULATION AT RISK VOLCANO DECISION MAKERS MEDIA SCIENTISTS OTHER CIENTISTS GENERAL PUBLIC HIGHER LEVELS VOLCANO POPULATION AT RISK DECISION MAKERS MEDIA

8. PEOPLE AT RISK VOLCANO DECISION MAKERS MEDIA SCIENTISTS OTHER CIENTISTS GENERAL PUBLIC HIGHER LEVELS VOLCANO PEOPLE AT RISK SCIENTISTS ACTORS (those who stay) STRONG BONDS WEAK TIES

9. Summit 5023 m A long term relationship among social actors has been established Social actors are working together to modify one circumstance: the volcanic risk in their community Decision makers have changed throughout time. There is a new risk management system. Authorities heavily rely on the local organization for acting upon warnings. Baños 1900 m West flank settlements GOOD PRACTICE: TUNGURAHUA VOLCANO

10. The 2003-2005 DIPECHO project was fundamental for the direct involvement of scientists qith the communities.

11. OVT personnel working with local authorities community leaders and community members

12. Scientific hazard map Rojo Intenso : Zona de peligro mayor Rojo medio : zona de peligro moderado Rojo pálido: zona de peligro menor Community hazard map

13. PEOPLE VOLCANO DECISION MAKERS MEDIA SCIENTISTS OTHER CIENTISTS GENERAL PUBLIC HIGHER LEVELS THE SEISMIC ACTIVITY INDEX AS A MEDIUM TO SHORT TERM FORECASTER

14. Relating monitoring observations to volcanic outcomes: The Seismic Activity Index Purpose: to simplify the communication with decision makers and the general public by quantifying in simple numbers the seismic activity of Tungurahua Volcano The Seismic Activity Index SAI: – Is a medium to short term forecaster – Uses short period, analog seismometers – Utilizes a reference period where volcanic superficial activity and internal seismic activity are known. – Compares the “true” seismic energy released by the volcano day by day with the maximum observed seismic energy during the reference period. A weighting processes includes the expert criteria – Includes the comparison of the daily counts of each type of pre-identified events with the reference period in order to identify pressurization – Daily values (DI) are treated statistically to obtain the Seismic Activity Index – Levels of the SAI are established using the observation period and is related to physical changes inside the volcano – Future trends are established using equivalents to bayesian models (ARIMA) – Intervals of confidence are computed to asses the uncertainties of the forecast.

15. Daily Activity Index

16. Seismic Activity Index

17. Daily Activity Index: the construction period

18. Seismic Activity Index: the construction period

19. Seismic Activity Index: the ratification period

20. Seismic Activity Index: problems

21. Seismic Activity Index: the communication tool

25. Relating monitoring observations to volcanic outcomes: The Seismic-Acoustic Index (BRUN Index) Purpose: to simplify the communication with decision makers and the general public by quantifying in simple numbers the seismic activity of Tungurahua Volcano The Seismic-Acoustic Index BRUN: – Is a short term forecaster – Uses one BB digital seismometer – Utilizes a reference period where volcanic superficial activity and internal seismic activity are known. – Compares the first three eruptions at Tungurahua that generated pyroclastic flows (14.07.2006; 16.08.2005; 06.02.2008) with minute by minute observed seismic and acoustic energy at BRUN – Is the result of a convolution that allow to find the trend using the values of the last 10 minutes. – Levels of the BRUN Index are established using the observation made during the pfs: 10% (yellow), 60% (orange) and 90% (red) – Future trends are established using equivalents to bayesian models (ARIMA)

26. The Seismic-Acoustic Index (BRUN Index)

28. Vulcanian eruption

29. The Seismic-Acoustic Index (BRUN Index): the communication tool

30. The Seismic-Acoustic Index (BRUN Index): the communication tool complements

31. THANK YOU