1. SIO/CHEM-87: Lecture 7 KNOWLEDGE TO GLOBAL & REGIONAL ACTION: CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND ENERGY ACCESS V. Ramanathan FEBRUARY 25, 2015

2. CLASS PROJECT FOR MARCH 04 CLASS COME WITH A 6-POINT PLAN TO LIMIT CLIMATE CHANGE TO LESS THAN 2C WARMING 1)INDIVIDUAL LEVEL: WHAT CAN YOU DO TO REDUCE YOUR CARBON FOOT PRINT? ONLY THOSE THAT WILL SCALE UP TO 0.5 GT OR MORE. 2) CITY TO STATE LEVEL; IMAGINE YOUR SELF AS A MAYOR OR GOVERNOR AND COME UP WITH A PLAN 3) WHAT SHOULD WE DO AT THE GLOBAL LEVEL. EACH STUDENT WILL HAVE 10MTS TO MAKE A PRESENTATION; WTITTEN REPORTS ARE NOT NECESSARY; JUST SUBMIT YOUR POWER POINT: EMAIL TO RAM AND AMATO

3. KNOWLEDGE IPCC National Academies NGOs (Universities; others) UNFCC COP (Governing Body) Protocols Accords USA China Action

4. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international environmental treaty negotiated at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), informally known as the Earth Summit, held in Rio de Janeiro from 3 to 14 June 1992. A conference of the parties (COP) is the governing body of an international convention.

7. Climate has Changed in the Past….. But

8. CO 2 HAS MANY OTHER ROGUE COMPANIONS Source: IPCC, AR5, 2013 PERCENT CONTRIBUTION TO TOTAL HEATING FROM 1750-2011

10. FIGURE SOURCE: TYNAN, UCSD

12. Illustrative CO 2 Emissions Profiles and Corresponding Concentrations Source: U.S. Climate Change Technology Program, September 2006 3 C 4 C 2 C 4.5 C 5 C I have assumed aerosols are eliminated; and other GHGs are fixed at 2005 values

13. .. Investment from Now to 2050: USD 46 Trillion 1.1% of average annual global GDP over the period”, IEA, 2008 Intl Energy Angecy- 2008 Report

14. Third of the Food Produced annually does not reach our stomachs The carbon footprint of food not eaten is 3.3 Gt of CO2(Eq), the third top emitter of CO2 (equivalent) after China and USA!! The Water foot print of food waste is 250 km3 1.4 billion hectares of land was used to produce the wasted food… roughly 1/3 of the agriculture land area Impacts on biodiversity due to monocropping??

16. T1B: The top 1 Billion with seemingly unlimited access to fossil fuels.. B3B: The bottom 3 billion lack access to fossil fuels. TWO SEPARATE BUT CO-DEPENDENT WORLDS

17. ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE TWO WORLDS UNITS: EXA (10 18 ) JOULES Year-2009 T4B B3B DATA FROM: CHAKRAVARTY,… SOCOLOW, ET AL 2009;GRUBLER & PACHAURI; WEO,2013

18. E_High 2009 2030 THE CO 2 PROBLEM: A T4B PROBLEM DATA FROM: CHAKRAVARTY.. SOCOLOW ET AL; WEO,2013; GRUBLER AND PACHAURI, ET AL, 2011 27 GT/YR 43 GT/YR B3B T4B

19. ENERGY USE AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT FIGURE SOURCE: TYNAN, UCSD

20. CO 2 HAS MANY OTHER ROGUE COMPANIONS Source: IPCC, AR5, 2013 PERCENT CONTRIBUTION TO TOTAL HEATING FROM 1750-2011

21. Pathway for limiting global warming to 2 C (3.6 F) Ramanathan and Xu, PNAS, 2010 I.Stabilize Carbon Dioxide Concentrations below 440ppm (T4B problem) II. Reduce Short Lived Climate Pollutants (T4B and B3B problem) ( contributes 40% of current Global warming): Black Carbon (<2 weeks); Ozone (< 2 months); Methane (<15 years) HFCs & HCFCs (<15 years) 25 to 4000 times more effective than CO 2 on 50-100 years scale Both a problem and an opportunity

22. A Hybrid Climate Mitigation Strategy for Warming & Sea Level Rise Simultaneous Mitigation of CO2 and SLCPs is critical for limiting warming below 2 0 C and Sea Level Rise below 1 meter: Source: Ramanathan and Xu.2010 & HU et al, 2013

26. 26 40 YEARS OF PROGRESS IN REDUCING BLACK CARBON BY 90%; EQUIVALENT TO MITIGATING CO2 EMISSIONS BY 4 MILLION CARS

27. Exciting New Idea: Microgrid has UC San Diego Generating 92 Percent Of Its Own Power What is a Microgrid? Basically a small-scale version of a traditional power grid, a microgrid draws energy from clean sources such as wind and solar power, as well as from conventional technology. A microgrid can be connected to a larger electric grid, but can also work independently. At UC San Diego, power generation is produced from several key sources: solar, a fuel cell and a cogeneration plant. These assets are integrated with energy storage and the sophisticated software that controls it all.