Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Initial Results Using a Two-Area Directed Sardine TAC SPSWG Meeting 31 st October 2013 Carryn de Moor Doug Butterworth William Robinson Marine Resource.

Published byKatrina Lindsey Modified over 9 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Initial Results Using a Two-Area Directed Sardine TAC SPSWG Meeting 31 st October 2013 Carryn de Moor Doug Butterworth William Robinson Marine Resource."— Presentation transcript:

1 Initial Results Using a Two-Area Directed Sardine TAC SPSWG Meeting 31 st October 2013 Carryn de Moor Doug Butterworth William Robinson Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group (MARAM) Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics University of Cape Town

2 Risk Definitions risk A - the probability that total adult anchovy biomass falls below 10% of the average total adult anchovy biomass over November 1984 and November 1999 at least once during the projection period of 20 years. risk S - the probability that total adult sardine biomass falls below the average total adult sardine biomass over November 1991 and November 1994 at least once during the projection period of 20 years. risk S j - the probability that adult sardine biomass of stock j falls below the average adult sardine biomass of stock j over November 1991 and November 1994 at least once during the projection period of 20 years. risk S west2 - the probability that adult “west” stock sardine biomass falls below the average adult “west” stock sardine biomass over November 2004 and November 2011 at least once during the projection period of 20 years.

3 Movement Hypotheses NoMove – no future movement MoveB – future movement is based on a relationship with the ratio of “south” : “west” stock 1+ biomass MoveE – future movement “switches” between increasing and decreasing towards an equilibrium proportion, based on whether a favorable or unfavorable environment exists on the south coast.

4 Single Sardine Stock Management Procedure  S j=1,r βα ns risk A risk S CACA CSCS “New”No Catch 0.45N/A 0.0080.04700 “Old” Interim OMP- 13 v2 (Single- area TAC) 0.400.0900.8710.2470.209275154 “New” 0.450.0900.8710.2260.224290156 Two-area TAC β west β south “New” 0.450.090 0.8710.2260.224290156 “New” 0.4500.0900.8710.2290.15029098 “New” 0.4500.250.8710.2290.185290126

5 Two Sardine Stocks : No Catch Figure 1 Biomass above which maximum recruitment would occur on average

6 Two Sardine Stocks : No Catch NoMove: 1946 105 MoveB: 213 MoveE: 109

7 Two Sardine Stocks : No Catch Figure 2 NoMoveMoveB MoveE Assumption that k covE =1

8 Two Sardine Stocks : No Catch Figure 3 Average 91-94 1+ Biomass NoMoveMoveB MoveE

9 Two Sardine Stocks : No Catch Figure 4 NoMove MoveB MoveE Average 91-94 1+ Biomass

10 Two Sardine Stocks : No Catch Movement Model βα ns risk A risk S risk S west risk S south risk S west2 CACA CSCS C S west C S south NoMoveN/A 0.0080.1830.3280.9970.0680000 Unfavorabl e Environ N/A 0.0080.5420.8890.2470.7970000 MoveBN/A 0.0080.5930.9520.1340.9040000 MoveEN/A 0.0080.7480.9480.4160.9080000 Favorable Environ N/A 0.0080.9350.9910.7900.9790000

11 Two Sardine Stocks : Catch Scenarios Figures 5,10,15 NoMoveMoveB MoveE Single Area (Interim OMP- 13v2) Two Area (same betas) Two Area (no west coast TAC) Comparing Median West SSB Between Alternative Catch Scenarios

12 Two Sardine Stocks : Catch Scenarios Figures 6,11,16 NoMoveMoveB MoveE Single Area (Interim OMP- 13v2) Two Area (same betas) Two Area (no west coast TAC) Comparing Median South SSB Between Alternative Catch Scenarios

13 Two Sardine Stocks: Interim OMP-13 v2 Movement Model βα ns risk A risk S risk S west risk S south risk S west2 CACA CSCS C S west C S south NoMoveN/A 0.0080.1830.3280.9970.0680000 MoveBN/A 0.0080.5930.9520.1340.9040000 MoveEN/A 0.0080.7480.9480.4160.9080000 NoMove 0.0900.8710.2380.3680.5070.9980.2252881651632 MoveB 0.0900.8710.2410.9620.9920.9380.976292261412 MoveE 0.0900.8710.2400.9930.9990.9790.999292251412 No Catch Interim OMP-13 v2

14 Two Sardine Stocks : Two-area MP Movement Model βα ns risk A risk S risk S west risk S south risk S west2 CACA CSCS C S west C S south Single Area TAC (MoveE) 0.0900.8710.2400.9930.9990.9790.999292251412 NoMove 0.09 0.8710.2370.3340.4660.9980.1652881771743 MoveB 0.09 0.8710.2420.9180.9770.8550.952292401526 MoveE 0.09 0.8710.2450.9410.9910.8280.981292451529 NoMove 00.090.8710.2440.2410.3611.0000.092288808 MoveE 00.090.8710.2470.8420.9540.7030.916291410 MoveB 00.090.8710.2500.7640.9650.4970.921291530 MoveE 00.250.8710.2470.8540.9540.7240.916291590 No West Coast Same Betas

15 Two Sardine Stocks : Catch Scenarios Figures 7,12,17 NoMoveMoveB MoveE Single Area (Interim OMP- 13v2) Two Area (same betas) Two Area (no west coast TAC) Comparing Median Total Catch Between Alternative Catch Scenarios

16 Initial Results Using a Two-Area Directed Sardine TAC Thank you for your attention

Download ppt "Initial Results Using a Two-Area Directed Sardine TAC SPSWG Meeting 31 st October 2013 Carryn de Moor Doug Butterworth William Robinson Marine Resource."

Similar presentations

An Alternative Sardine Recruit Movement Model

An Alternative Sardine Recruit Movement Model
Sardine Two-Stock Hypothesis: Results at the Posterior Mode SPSWG Meeting 28 th August 2013 Carryn de Moor Doug Butterworth Marine Resource Assessment.

Sardine Two-Stock Hypothesis: Results at the Posterior Mode SPSWG Meeting 28 th August 2013 Carryn de Moor Doug Butterworth Marine Resource Assessment.
Draft Two-Area Harvest Control Rules for OMP-13 SPSWG Meeting 31 st October 2013 Carryn de Moor Doug Butterworth Marine Resource Assessment and Management.

Draft Two-Area Harvest Control Rules for OMP-13 SPSWG Meeting 31 st October 2013 Carryn de Moor Doug Butterworth Marine Resource Assessment and Management.
CSIRO WEALTH FROM OCEANS FLAGSHIP Reviewing the harvest strategy for the Commonwealth small pelagic fishery Tony Smith Hobart, October 17, 2014.

CSIRO WEALTH FROM OCEANS FLAGSHIP Reviewing the harvest strategy for the Commonwealth small pelagic fishery Tony Smith Hobart, October 17, 2014.
Report of the 10 th Meeting of the Scientific Working Group Port Vila, Vanuatu, 19 – 23 September 2011.

Report of the 10 th Meeting of the Scientific Working Group Port Vila, Vanuatu, 19 – 23 September 2011.
Icelandic cod HCR - lessons learned Einar Hjörleifsson Marine Research Institute Reykjavík, Iceland.

Icelandic cod HCR - lessons learned Einar Hjörleifsson Marine Research Institute Reykjavík, Iceland.
An Overview of the Key Issues to be Discussed Relating to South African Sardine MARAM International Stock Assessment Workshop 1 st December 2014 Carryn.

An Overview of the Key Issues to be Discussed Relating to South African Sardine MARAM International Stock Assessment Workshop 1 st December 2014 Carryn.
ICES advice as of 30th June 2014 Nick Bailey, Coby Needle, Helen Dobby, Emma Hatfield Marine Scotland - Science.

ICES advice as of 30th June 2014 Nick Bailey, Coby Needle, Helen Dobby, Emma Hatfield Marine Scotland - Science.
Reliability and Limits of MSY Targets, Limits, and Uncertainty Rainer Froese GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany Public Hearing on Maximum Sustainable Yield European.

Reliability and Limits of MSY Targets, Limits, and Uncertainty Rainer Froese GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany Public Hearing on Maximum Sustainable Yield European.
SKAGERRAK PLAICE WORKSHOP Charlottenlund, 16. April 2013.

SKAGERRAK PLAICE WORKSHOP Charlottenlund, 16. April 2013.
CSIRO WEALTH FROM OCEANS FLAGSHIP Review of the harvest strategy for the Commonwealth small pelagic fishery Tony Smith Hobart, March 24, 2015.

CSIRO WEALTH FROM OCEANS FLAGSHIP Review of the harvest strategy for the Commonwealth small pelagic fishery Tony Smith Hobart, March 24, 2015.
Using Climate Information in Fisheries Stock Assessments (with a focus on Pacific Whiting) Ian Taylor SMA 550: Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest.

Using Climate Information in Fisheries Stock Assessments (with a focus on Pacific Whiting) Ian Taylor SMA 550: Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest.
Generic Harvest Control Rules for European Fisheries Rainer Froese, Trevor A. Branch, Alexander Proelß, Martin Quaas, Keith Sainsbury & Christopher Zimmermann.

Generic Harvest Control Rules for European Fisheries Rainer Froese, Trevor A. Branch, Alexander Proelß, Martin Quaas, Keith Sainsbury & Christopher Zimmermann.
“FORGOTTEN SIGNALS IN FISHERIES MANAGEMENT” By, Deepak George Pazhayamadom Department of Zoology, Ecology and Plant Science (ZEPS) University College Cork.

“FORGOTTEN SIGNALS IN FISHERIES MANAGEMENT” By, Deepak George Pazhayamadom Department of Zoology, Ecology and Plant Science (ZEPS) University College Cork.
Fishing as the exploitation of a natural resorce By Eskild Kirkegaard, ICES ACOM Chair ARVI International Conference on the Future of Fisheries Vigo, 27.

Fishing as the exploitation of a natural resorce By Eskild Kirkegaard, ICES ACOM Chair ARVI International Conference on the Future of Fisheries Vigo, 27.
Compatibility & consequences of alternative potential TRPs for the south Pacific albacore stock MOW3-WP/06 SPC, OFP MOW3 meeting, Apia, Samoa Friday 28.

Compatibility & consequences of alternative potential TRPs for the south Pacific albacore stock MOW3-WP/06 SPC, OFP MOW3 meeting, Apia, Samoa Friday 28.
Doug S Butterworth MARAM (Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group) Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics University of Cape Town, Rondebosch.

Doug S Butterworth MARAM (Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group) Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics University of Cape Town, Rondebosch.
Mean, Median, Mode Review ENGR 1181 Class 7. Mean.

Mean, Median, Mode Review ENGR 1181 Class 7. Mean.
INTERNATIONAL REVIEW PANEL REPORT FOR THE 2012 INTERNATIONAL FISHERIES STOCK ASSESSMENT WORKSHOP 26 - 30 November 2012, UCT NON TECHNICAL SUMMARY.

INTERNATIONAL REVIEW PANEL REPORT FOR THE 2012 INTERNATIONAL FISHERIES STOCK ASSESSMENT WORKSHOP November 2012, UCT NON TECHNICAL SUMMARY.
Pacific Hake Management Strategy Evaluation Joint Technical Committee Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Pacific Biological Station, DFO School of.

Pacific Hake Management Strategy Evaluation Joint Technical Committee Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Pacific Biological Station, DFO School of.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google