1. Caterina Ruggeri Laderchi ECSPE

2.  Ongoing reforms in the energy sector ◦ Energy sector reform program under EU market principles launched in 2004 ◦ Independent regulator + move towards cost recovery through regular pattern of increases  South Eastern Europe Energy Community ◦ External commitments to raise tariffs and protect vulnerable consumers ◦ Countries prepare action plans on protecting the poor  Political sensitivity of tariff increases in a crisis context

3.  Series of analytical products  New engagement with different actors  Very good multi-sectoral collaboration  Opportunity to make substantive impact by providing input into secondary legislation defining ◦ Vulnerable groups ◦ Practical measures to ensure energy affordability

4.  Poor households most affected by reforms High reliance on electricity, and high share of electricity expenditures in consumption Debt arrears as a major issue Often little ability to manage energy consumption  Vulnerability to price increases: ◦ High shares of energy poverty: Elderly households, especially if single; Single parent households and households with infants; Households dependent on transfers and social insurance ◦ Elderly in particular little flexibility in their budgets to adjust expenditures and already consuming little energy  Policy performance Earmarked assistance to poor households – small program and low take up Need to address low take up of regular social assistance Scope for extending double metering Scope for thinking of energy efficiency

5. Quantitative analysis Electricity expenditure patterns Electricity consumption patterns Distribution of subsidies Welfare impact of price increases Poverty impact Focus groups with poor consumers Engagement with inter-ministerial working group Range of policy options Request

6. Press clipping Possible DPL PSIA Initial analysis Technical discussion with Regulator Request from technical working group Social map Social protection options Energy agenda items Multi- sectoral dialogue HD (Energy) Focus groups with poor users Legislative developments: Reform of social assistance Consumer protection law Draft energy law  Secondary legislation will define vulnerable categories Targeting criteria Operationa l support for implement ation Ongoing WB engagement in dialogue and development of project pipeline

7.  Timeliness (luck?)  Serious external commitment created: ◦ Demand ◦ Institutional counterpart  Outputs easy to tailor to requests  Broadening dialogue with additional tools  Overall PSIA part of a broader engagement with the country team ◦ Strength of sectoral dialogue

8.  Multi-sectoral and decentralized team  Evolving nature of the engagement ◦ Dynamic environment ◦ In terms of WB work: managing transitions between different phases of the dialogue  Tension between institutional arrangements and need to broaden audiences ◦ Persuasive role that analytical work has to play