1. Turkey’s Neighbourhood Policy: Developing a World Complex Interdependence?
K. Kaan Renda
Phd Candidate
European Studies
King’s College London

2. Introduction Realism in IR Complex interdependence
General characteristics of Turkish Foreign policy
Recent developments and activism
Concluding remarks
Q&A

3. Realist theory States as unitary and dominant actors
Survival and security are the main objectives
Hierarchy of issues: High politics v. Low politics
Power = Material capabilities = Military force
National interests are pre-given
Conflict and competition persistent

5. Complex Interdependence
Basic Features:
Multiple Channels
Absence of hierarchy among issues
Secondary role of military force

6. Complex Interdependence (continued):
Multiple Channels:
Transgovernmental relations
Transnational relations
Support for Multilateralism

7. Complex Interdependence (continued):
Absence of Hierarchy among Issues
Extensive foreign agendas
Security issue is relegated
Rise of different domestic groups
National interests less clearly defined
Cooperation possible and becomes a norm

8. Complex Interdependence (continued):
Secondary role of Military Force:
Change in threat perceptions
Diplomacy and other civilian instruments praised
Military power is the last resort

9. Complex Interdependence (continued):
Types of Leadership and Role:
Hegemonic leadership: Dominant role
Unilateral leadership: unilateral policies and bilateral relations
Multiple leadership: multilateral policies, mediator and facilitator role, displaying a good example

10. Complex Interdependence (continued):
Sensitivity: the speed and magnitude with which a change in one country is felt in another country.
Vulnerability: the relative availability and costliness of alternative policy frameworks, when it becomes necessary to adapt to external changes.

11. Turkish Foreign Policy
General characteristics of TFP in 1990s:
Geostrategic concerns
Threat perceptions
Military strategy
Domestic politics

12. Geostrategic concerns:
Dominated by realpolitik and geopolitical concerns: Cold war mentality
Power politics: strong army and readiness to use of force
Searching for a new role

13. Threat perceptions: Threats are everywhere: Suspicion and mistrust
Domestic and international threats
National unity and integrity (milli birlik ve beraberlik)
Terrorism
Hostile neighbours
Surrounded by threats
Suspicion and mistrust
Security was the main concern
Security-consumer

14. Military strategy: Military strategy focused on:
Containment of hostile neighbours through alliances and threat of use of force
Fighting against terrorism
Strong army and strong state was vital for survival
Highly cautious

15. Domestic politics: State-centric
National Unity and integrity (milli birlik ve beraberlik)
Coalition governments
Military’s role in foreign policymaking

16. Recent Developments Foreign Policymaking Economic activism
Diplomatic activism

17. Foreign policymaking Civilianization: Democratization:
Desecuritization:

18. Economic activism Creating a circle of business partners
Web of bilateral agreements
More pragmatic and economy oriented
Rise of trading state after the twin economic crisis in 2000 and 2001: need for new markets
Role of stable and consolidated economy
Energy hub
Possibility of economic regime and economic integration

19. Trade statistics (1) Source: IMF
Year
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Partner country
Flow
Armenia
Exports
Imports
391k
40k
56k
1.489
Azerbaijan
248k
230k
225k
231k
315k
403k
528k
695k
1.046
1.667
440k
956k
780k
646k
122k
135k
272k
340k
329k
928k
Bulgaria
233k
252k
299k
380k
621k
892k
1.179
1.567
2.060
2.151
295k
465k
393k
508k
689k
955k
1.190
1.661
1.949
1.840
Georgia
114k
131k
144k
103k
155k
199k
271k
407k
645k
997k
932k
127k
137k
273k
302k
344k
289k
525k
Greece
406k
437k
476k
590k
920k
1.166
1.126
1.602
2.262
2.429
287k
430k
266k
312k
427k
592k
726k
1.044
950k
1.150
Iran
157k
235k
360k
333k
533k
810k
912k
1.066
1.386
2.029
635k
815k
839k
1.860
1.961
3.469
5.626
6.613
8.199
Iraq
829k
1.815
2.748
2.589
2.811
3.916
112k
467k
458k
375k
644k
1.320
Syria
232k
184k
281k
410k
551k
609k
797k
1.115
307k
545k
463k
506k
413k
357k
187k
376k
639k

20. Trade statistics (2) Source: IMF
Partner country
Flow
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Russian
Exports
588k
643k
924k
1.172
1.367
1.858
2.377
3.237
4.727
6.483
Imports
2.374
3.886
3.435
3.891
5.451
9.027
12.869
17.806
23.506
31.364
Israel
585k
650k
805k
861k
1.083
1.309
1.466
1.529
1.658
1.935
298k
505k
529k
544k
459k
714k
803k
782k
1.081
1.447 EU
15.420
15.664
17.545
20.416
27.397
36.524
41.365
47.930
60.406
63.394
22.529
28.526
19.823
25.688
35.140
48.077
52.629
59.338
68.589
74.803
AFRICA
1.049
901k
1.031
1.203
1.527
2.150
2.558
3.365
4.429
6.558
1.075
1.787
1.879
1.823
2.075
3.012
3.786
4.714
5.702
6.490
Middle East
2.225
2.031
2.575
2.735
4.511
6.797
8.986
9.881
13.186
23.330
2.299
3.543
3.221
3.310
4.861
6.194
8.836
11.790
12.017
16.003

21. Diplomatic activism Dynamic and assertive diplomacy Soft power
From staunch alliances to flexible alliances
Mediator role, problem-solver, pivotal role in regional politics
More cooperative and constructive
Normalisation of relations with neighbours

22. Concluding remarks Expanding the Turkish sphere of influence
From “tolerating and deterring neighbours” to “good neighbourly relations”
Analytical problems of complex interdependence model
Lack of emphasis on the effects of identity and culture
Too much economy-oriented
Practical problems of new activism in Turkish foreign policy
Problems of zero problem with neighbours policy
Economical and institutional capacity
Over-stretching: Breaking the bow
Over-confidence and declining tolerance to opposition
Seen rhetorical and opportunitist: Lack of concrete results
Domestic problems constrain Turkish role in the region

23. Selected Bibliography:
Aydin, M. (1999). "Determinants of Turkish Foreign Policy: Historical Framework and Traditional Inputs", Middle Eastern Studies 35(4):
Aydin, M. (2000). "Determinants of Turkish Foreign Policy: Changing Patterns and Conjunctures During the Cold War", Middle Eastern Studies 36(1):
Aydin, M. (2003b). "Securitization of History and Geography: Understanding of Security in Turkey", Southeast European and Black Sea Studies 3(2):
Bilgin, P. (2005). "Turkey's Changing Security Discourses: The Challenge of Globalisation", European Journal of Political Research 44(1):
Karaosmanoglu, A. L. (2000). "The Evolution of the National Security Culture and the Military in Turkey", Journal of International Affairs 54(1):
Keohane, Robert O. and Nye, Joseph S.(1989). Power and Interdependence, USA: Harper Collins Publishers, 2. Edition.
Kirisci, K. (2006). Turkey's Foreign Policy in Turbulent Times. Chaillot Paper. Paris: Institute for Security Studies.
Oguzlu, H. T. (2004a). "The Impact of 'Democratization in the Context of the EU Accession Process' on Turkish Foreign Policy ", Mediterranean Politics 9(1):
Oguzlu, H. T. (2007). "Soft Power in Turkish Foreign Policy", Australian Journal of International Affairs 61(1):
Robins, P. (2007). "Turkish Foreign Policy since 2002: Between a 'Post-Islamist' Government and a Kemalist State", International Affairs 83(2):

24. Thank you very much!