1. Is there 'White Flight' in England? Why Whites in Homogeneous English Wards Are More Opposed to Immigration Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uke.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk; g.harris1@bbk.ac.ukg.harris1@bbk.ac.uk http://www.sneps.net/research-interests/whiteworkingclass http://www.sneps.net/research-interests/whiteworkingclass twitter: @epkaufm

2. Reduce Immigration (a little or a lot) 80.4% of white UK born respondents vs. 19.6% of UK-born whites who wish immigration to stay the same or increase Source: Home Office Citizenship Survey, 2010-11, geocoded with Census 2011

3. Reduce the number of immigrants (a lot and a little) by social class and ward diversity (aggregated dataset) for all white respondents

4. 22 studies at ward level (population generally 10,000-30,000) : 74 percent link higher diversity to reduced animosity, just 18 percent the reverse 43 studies using units above 100,000 population: a significant increase in out-group hostility in 86 percent of these studies Local Contact, Metro Threat?

5. Feeling of threat at metro level as minorities grow, but positive contact at local level creates accommodation

6. Selection Bias Problem Q: Why are whites in diverse areas more tolerant? A: Selection bias: whites who don’t like diversity leave, a.k.a. ‘white flight’ or white avoidance

7. Selection Bias? No one has properly tested Test with BHPS/Understanding Society Large sample, longitudinal, geocoded Compare white British who enter and leave diverse wards Compare white British movers (enter/leave) with those who stay Proxy questions for attitude to immigration

8. Simpson (2007) Method Wards % White Quintile 1755498 Quintile 272687 Quintile 328873 Quintile 418057 Quintile 510234 Total885091 Diversity Seekers White Flight/Avoiders

9. Source: BHPS/ Understanding Society, 1991-2011

10. Simpson (2007) Method Wards % White Quintile 1755498 Quintile 272687 Quintile 328873 Quintile 418057 Quintile 510234 Total885091 Diversity Seekers 24% Tory 18% Working Class 27% Degrees 57% English Identity 46% Tabloid 44% 17-25s 50% renters 49% single 10% anti-homosexual 9% gender traditionalists White Flight/Avoiders 24% Tory 18% Working Class 30% Degrees 57% English Identity 56% Tabloid 32% 17-25s 26% renters 35% single 12% anti-homosexual 12% gender traditionalists

11. Source: BHPS/ Understanding Society, 1991-2011

12. Not Selection Whites moving to diverse areas and those leaving them are almost identical in voting, family values, English national identity, British patriotism, newspaper readership No direct measure of immigration opinion, but research in Sweden finds identical pattern (Hedman et. al 2012)

13. Mobility?: Stayers Differ From Movers Swedish research shows that whites leaving diverse areas (Hedman et. al 2012) are more tolerant of immigration than whites who remain Our work with BHPS corroborates this: movers are more tolerant on family values and morality, whilst stayers tend to be more nationalistic and defensive of Britain’s standing in the world.

14. Source: BHPS/ Understanding Society, 1991- 2011

15. Stayers and far right support Harris’ work on support for the far right in Greater London 2007-10: electoral support for the BNP stronger in wards with less in- and – outflow Far right support linked with white enclaves nested within more ethnically diverse areas- bifurcated relationship with diversity (Goodwin 2011, Bowyer 2008) Positive relationship at Local Authority (conflict) against negative at ward level (contact)

16. Whites Favouring Reduced Immigration, by social class By Share of Ethnic Minorities in Ward By Share of Recent Immigrants (less than 10 years in UK) in Ward

19. Those Favouring Reduced Immigration, by class: Role of Transience

23. Reduce Immigration a lot 59.7% of white UK born respondents agree

30. Conclusion Local context matters for views on immigration and vice-versa Whites in diverse English wards more positive about immigration Not because intolerant whites have self- selected out But in part because whites in diverse areas are more transient

31. Some support for contact theory: more in ameliorating strong opposition than in promoting acceptance of current levels Limited effect on white working class attitudes White attitudes to immigration may be softened by contact; however LA-level diversity may increase threat effect (further research will use multilevel analysis to parse this) Further research: 4 focus groups; expand analysis to 5 waves of Citizenship Survey

32. Is there 'White Flight' in England? Why Whites in Homogeneous English Wards Are More Opposed to Immigration Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uke.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk; g.harris1@bbk.ac.ukg.harris1@bbk.ac.uk http://www.sneps.net/research-interests/whiteworkingclass http://www.sneps.net/research-interests/whiteworkingclass twitter: @epkaufm