1. Intelligent decision support system for transport infrastructure investment with emphasis on joint logistic concept Case-study: East-West intermodal corridor Author: Jean-Yves YAMBEN Supervisors: Dr. Jan Persson & Linda Ramstedt Advisor: Mattias Alisch

2. Highlights  Introduction motivation & state-of-art Key issues and targets Methodology Outcome

3. Highlights (Cont.1) ■ Intelligent Decision Support System layout (IDSST2I) System Components IDSST2I in the framework of East-West corridor ■ Technological contribution in the conceptual IDSST2I ■ Conclusion ■ Future Work ■ Questions????

4. Motivation & State-of-art Why this study? -Transportation issues (traffic congestion, accidents, few spatial resources …) -Environmental issues (air pollution, noise… ) -Scientific contribution toward profitable, environmental friendly and sustainable transport systems (East-West corridor)

5. Motivation & State-of-art (Cont.1) In the public transport investment field the private stakeholders are the core element, which influences the achievement of the governmental objectives (economical, environmental and sustainable) assigned to the transport system development. The transport infrastructure investment decision is very complex and time consuming process in which the economical, environmental and sustainable goals are set out by the only public stakeholder.

6. Motivation & State-of-art (Cont.3) Governmental transport infrastructure investment decision process : -Need of transport infrastructure -Evaluation of potential private users (selective method) -Financial appraisal through cost-benefit analysis and risk analysis -External effects assessment -Action choice+ parliament commitment -Implementation stage

7. Key issues and targets Key issues = weaknesses of the decision process, described above are as follow: -Inaccurate evaluation of infrastructure potential users by using selective method -Insufficient information exchange between public and private stakeholders at the earlier stages of the decision process→ imperfection of the acquired knowledge, lack of common view toward goals settings

8. Key issues and targets (Cont.1) -Substantial deviation from the expected results, due to the threats in the financial and external effects appraisal -Public and private interaction via “old” communication means (standard mails, meetings …)→ time consuming and costly decision-making process

9. Key issues and targets (Cont.2) Targets= opportunities, providing by the “today” infrastructure investment decision process are as follow: -Macro-level approach: Infrastructure investment decision (IID)= set of KPI Private stakeholder feedback= f(IID)= set of KPI -Apply fair transport policy on the TI by categorizing the private stakeholders according to their impacts on the environment

10. Key issues and targets (Cont.3) -Shift the action of the supply chain from the latest stage of the decision process to the earlier and empower his role -Application of the joint logistic concept in the financial and external appraisal at the middle of the decision process -Application of ICT

11. Methodology ■ certified research papers and domain literatures reviews, interviews ■ Agent & artificial intelligence technologies ■ Mathematical modeling ■ operations research techniques (discrete- event simulation and local optimization) ■ CommonKADS

12. Outcome Conceptual IDSS, called IDSST2I, involved in two dimensions -“virtual negotiation process” -“real negotiation process” OK ROI < 0 ROI>0 Need Of Transport Infrastructure Initiation/suggest ion of an infrastructure decision (small or large scale) Supply chain feedback /evaluati on of veto points Governm ental analysis/e valuation of ROI Update suggested decision to final Delay NOT OK, HCKPI

13. Intelligent decision support system layout(IDSST2I) IDSST2I in the “real negotiation process” Fig.1 IDSST2I’ system components diagram [1]- suggested infrastructure investment decision inputs by the public decision-maker [2]- supply chain feedbacks input by the supply chain decision-maker [3]- supply chain feedback with HCKPI [4]- alternative infrastructure investment decision inputs automatically by inference mechanism Simulator Database 4 3 1 2 Web portal Knowledge base

14. Intelligent decision support system layout(IDSST2I) (cont.1) IDSST2I in the “virtual negotiation process” ■ Input: suggested transport infrastructure investment decision in the form of KPIs table internal output/input: supply chain feedback “OK”/”NOT OK with HCKPI” - supply chain veto points = <= hist or = <= hist

15. Intelligent decision support system layout(IDSST2I) (cont.2) Governmental veto point ■ Output: Alternative infrastructure investment decision or “delay” according respectively to the value of ROI positive or negative Maximize ROI = =

16. System Components ■ Web portal Application of ICT: enhance the accessibility and reduce the cost and negotiation processing time ■ Database For storing and retrieving data/KPI ■ Simulator component For simulating the supply chain decision using computer agent and alternative infrastructure investment decisions ■ Knowledgebase component For storing expert and domain knowledge and retrieving infrastructure investment decisions

17. IDSST2I in the framework of East-West corridor ► Improve organizational structure of the East-West project group ► study the possibility of applying a uniform transport regulation within the corridor and reducing the cost and business processing time

18. Technological contribution in the conceptual IDSST2I ■ System design, based on modular approach ►enhance flexibility ►easy access to each system component ■ Agent & artificial intelligence technologies enable to achieve autonomous infrastructure investment decision process→ “intelligent”, robust decision support system

19. Technological contribution in the conceptual IDSST2I (cont.1) ■ Mathematical modeling approach ►simplify the reality from the knowledge expert and domain knowledge ►transform the infrastructure investment decision from undeterministic to deterministic ■ Discrete-event simulation and local optimization techniques ►simulate different alternative investment action without risk (learning process) ► enable to find the best suitable investment action characterizing by ROI and investment cost

20. Conclusion ■ Conclusions - Better evaluation of potential users - decrease of cost and time in information exchange processing between public and private stakeholders - Better achievement of common goals through transport infrastructure development

21. Future Work ■ validation of IDSST2I in a real domain ■ sensitivity analysis ■ information and network security ■ User friendly Graphical Interface

22. Questions  Break or ?????