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RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS RESERVES Ray Leonard YUKOS Uppsala, May 22, 2001
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Factors to consider Existing Reserves Production Capability Export Capability Future Discoveries
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New outlook for oil reserves in Russia and Middle East: reality or political numbers game? 360 634 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 World Energy Council (1998) Proved (internat. audited 99- 00 ) reserves of Top 4* 46.5 40.2 81.8 93 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Russia & Russian companies’ oil reserves 1988 Middle East (OPEC) oil reserves leap Proved (A+B+C1) reserves of Top 10** Proved (A+B+C1) and 50% of C2 reserves of Top 10** 1988 1987 (bn bbl) * LUK, YUKOS, SurgutNG,TNK ** 4 with Onako + Sidanco, Rosneft, Tatneft,Sibneft,Slavneft, Bashneft
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Oil Equivalent Reserves
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RUSSIAN AND CASPIAN PRODUCTION COMPARED TO WORLD PRODUCTION
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TCF GAS
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120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 220,000 2000 2001 2002 50 58 70 YUKOS PRODUCTION
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40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 19861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002 YEAR Yearly Production, million tons YUKOS 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 19861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002 YEAR Yearly Production, million tons YUKOS 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 19861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002 Yearly Production, million tons YUKOS PRODUCTION
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Average daily rate per new well by Russian oil companies in 2001 YUKOS Sibneft ONAKO SIDANCO Lukoil TNK Slavneft Rosneft Surgutneftegas Bashneft Tatneft Total
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FSU oil is competitive on the world market Reserves, bln.bbl * - finding, development and production excl. transportation and taxes (CERA,Sept. 2001) 100 16 12 8 4 200300 400500600 700 $/bbl Iraq Kuwait Iran Saudi Arabia UAE USA, stripper wells Western Siberia Venezuela(x-heavy) Other Latin America Nigeria Algeria Brasil North Sea Western Canada Mexico China (onshore) Indonesia USA, Mexican Gulf (deep) USA, Alaska USA onshore Angola Kazakhstan Russia Other Worldwide full-cycle upstream cost* of oil in 2001 800 Best Companies** ** - 2001 finding, development and production cost –3.7 $/bbl, Including Government expenses Venezuela(conv)
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OIL EXPORT ROUTES
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GAS EXPORT ROUTES
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Future Potential Reserves
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EXPLORATION MATURITY
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Potential of Russian Shelf Seven major basins, each equal to or larger than the Gulf of Mexico or the North Sea Extensions of producing trends in Pechora Sea, Kara Sea and Sea of Okhotsk Thick sedimentary basins with all elements for hydrocarbon accumulations in other Arctic and Pacific Basins
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SUPPLY AND DEMAND 2000-2010 20 MMBOD 22 MMBOD 15 MMBOD 16 MMBOD 18 MMBOD 24 MMBOD
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CONCLUSIONS Russian oil reserves are probably in the range of 90-105 Billion barrels These reserves will be capable of sustaining an additional 35% increase over current levels (7.5 MMBOD) for an extended period New export oil and gas pipelines will allow additional Caspian oil to be marketed and supply Russian oil and gas to the Far East A combination of mature, developing and frontier exploration can add an estimated 40-50 billion barrels and larger amounts of natural gas Russian and Caspian oil exports will reach the level of one half of the Middle East by 2010 Russian gas reserves allow a significant increase from current production and will assume increasing importance as world production eventually peaks and begins to decline
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