1. Markus Amann The RAINS model: Modelling of health impacts of PM and ozone

2. Objectives of health impact assessment in RAINS Focus on cost-effectiveness of emission control strategies – judged against improvement in the effects of air pollution Quantification of health impacts in response to emission reductions, consistent approach for all of Europe RAINS does not address compliance with local short-term hot spot exceedances of air quality limit values (including NO 2 ), if they are not directly health-relevant

3. Approach for PM Estimating the loss of life expectancy attributable to PM Endpoint: –Loss in statistical life expectancy –Related to long-term PM2.5 exposure, based on cohort studies –All-cause mortality data used, main effect from cardio-vascular diseases Life tables provide baseline mortality for each cohort in each country For a given PM scenario: Mortality modified through Cox proportional hazard model using Relative Risk (RR) factors from literature From modified mortality, calculate life expectancy for each cohort and for entire population

4. Critical assumptions reviewed by TF on Health Mortality related to PM2.5 (mass) –PM2.5 includes effects from SO 2, NO 2, carbonaceous, diesel –Ozone effects are independent –Morbidity effects (possibly related to PM10) not addressed Methodology: –RR (1.06) and shape of C-R curve (linear) taken from ACS study (Pope et al., 2003) –No threshold for health impacts from the modelled anthropogenic PM, extrapolation beyond 35 μg/m 3 PM2.5 –No effects assumed from natural PM2.5 –Relevant exposure: urban background concentrations PM2.5 No effects for younger than 30 years; infant mortality excluded

5. Input to life expectancy calculation Urban/rural population in each 50*50 km grid cell – LANDSCAN, etc Population data by cohort and country, 2000-2050 - EUROSTAT Life tables (by country) - EUROSTAT Air quality data: annual mean concentrations –PM2.5 (sulfates, nitrates, ammonium, primary particles), excluding SOA, natural sources –50*50 km over Europe, rural + urban background –for any emission scenario 1990-2020

6. Example implementation CAFE baseline energy & emission projection for 2000, 2010, 2010 EMEP Eulerian dispersion model, regional background concentrations Mean meteorology, 1999 & 2003 Simple adjustment of urban PM: 1.25*rural primary PM (awaiting results from City-Delta) RR from ACS (1.06)

7. Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies 2000 2010 2020

8. Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months]

9. Uncertainties Imperfect scientific understanding –Damage mechanism –Which component of PM? –Existence of threshold, etc. Model design –Morbidity effects ignored –Only people older than 30 years considered –Use of urban background concentrations Quality and variability in data –Accuracy of dispersion calculations –Interannual meteorological variability –Confidence range of relative risk factors Uncertainties in future development –Evolution of population/migration

10. Inter-annual meteorological variability Loss in life expectancy due to PM2.5 2003 Mean 1999 Loss in average life expectancy (days) Due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 Emissions of 2000 Preliminary estimates (generic treatment of urban PM)

11. Health impacts from ozone

12. Approach for ozone Estimating the cases of premature deaths attributable to O 3 Endpoint: Cases of premature deaths RR from the WHO meta study (1.003/10 µg/m 3 ) Related to daily 8-hour mean ozone levels With a cut-off (35 ppb 8-hour mean) – SOMO35 Accumulated over the full year Baseline mortality data for each country (UN population statistics) Exposure calculated for urban/rural population in each 50*50 km grid cell (not yet implemented )

13. Premature mortality attributable to ozone related to excess of daily max. 8 hour means > 35 ppb (SOMO35) Applied relative risk factor: 1.003 / 10 µg/m 3 increase in daily max 8 h mean

14. Health-relevant ozone concentrations [SOMO35, ppb.days] 2000 2010 2020 Rural concentrations Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

15. Premature deaths attributable to ozone [cases/year] Provisional calculations with 50*50 km resolution

16. Uncertainty of O 3 impact estimates Cases of premature deaths (for 6 months), with different cut-offs 30 ppb 40 ppb 60 ppb

17. Reduction of premature deaths attributable to O 3 compared to 2000, with different cut-offs (cases/year) 30 ppb 40 ppb 60 ppb

18. Conclusions Health impact assessment in RAINS addresses mortality – morbidity excluded PM –PM impacts dominated by long-term effects –Effects are assumed to be related to anthropogenic PM2.5 in urban background air –All-cause mortality from ACS study used for quantification, end-point is loss in life expectancy Ozone –RAINS quantifies mortality effects based on short-term time series studies –SOMO35, over full year