1. Workshop Framework: Addressing the 3 Questions Jay Barclay, Quentin Chiotti, John Shortreed and Stephanie Gower Policy Analysis Tools for Air Quality & Health Workshop Toronto, May 19, 2005

2. Workshop Questions 1.What is the public health significance of air pollution? 2.Are the available models and analysis tools adequate to inform policy at some level? 3.What are the key policy questions that should be addressed by models?

3. Basic Elements and Terminology for Policy Development

4. Global Sources Transboundary Airshed Domestic Regional Local Fixed, Mobile, Area Sources At any location, air pollution can be attributed to a combination of many different sources Different models are required to characterize pollution from different “types” of sources

5. Areas of Uncertainty Key Pollutants Source Apportionment –Fixed, mobile or area sources that are either –Local, regional, transboundary airshed, or global Trends (emissions, policy impact, targets, climate change impacts) Health Effects –Outdoor and Indoor Air Quality, Vulnerable Groups Economic and Environmental Impacts No Justification for Inaction

6. Workshop Questions … again … 1.Are Health Effects Significant? 2.What Tools are being used – Where, when, how, why and what? 3.And what are we asking them to tell us (and what are we learning)?

7. Are Health Effects Significant?

8. Emissions – Pollution – Health Effects Relationships and Policy Interventions Economic Activity, Fuel/Energy Use Ambient Air Quality Health Impacts (e.g. mortality, morbidity) Environmental Effects Changes in Welfare Emissions (SOx, NOx, etc.) Economy-Energy Relationship Economy-Energy-Emissions Emissions – Ambient Air Quality Ambient Air Quality – Health/Environment Policy Intervention e.g. promote fuel switching, energy efficiency, reduced emissions intensity Policy Intervention e.g. voluntary and/or legislated emissions reduction Policy Intervention e.g. AQ advisories

9. Generic Policy Interventions Checklist (…and examples of issues that might need to be addressed) Fixed FacilitiesMobile SourcesArea Sources Global International Agreements Regional Regional Emissions budgets (caps) Sector emission caps/allowances Minimum emission limits for new /modified facilities Alternative energy sources Regulations setting minimum standards for pollution from vehicle engines and fuels Market based strategies Technical strategies Regulations setting emission limits Educational strategies Market based strategies Air Quality Standards, Emissions Reduction Targets Local Siting and Planning Permitting Systems Voluntary and/or Legislated Source Emission Reduction Emission limits through permits Partnerships and Agreements: Industry Self-Monitoring Traffic Demand Management Traffic Management Vehicle retirement programs Land use planning/Smart Growth strategies Alternative fuels in gov’t fleets Anti-idling bylaws Improving road infrastructure Greening, in particular reforestation Road cleaning and street cleaning Reduced open burning Monitoring, Compliance and Enforcement Community Airshed Studies Public education and outreach: vehicle inspection and maintenance, energy efficiency/conservation; exposure reduction Municipal and corporate smog alert response plans ****Note that a more detailed and comprehensive list was prepared for the NERAM 2005 colloquium and is available upon request

10. Some Challenges for Development of Policy Analysis Tools… Predicting how changes in policy may influence individual and corporate behaviour and practices with respect to energy and materials use, particularly fossil fuel combustion Considering compliance with regulations Considering speed and effectiveness of policy adoption Policies on air quality may impact health in unexpected ways

11. What are the Attributes of Useful Policy Analysis Tools? Specific models for specific questions vs. integrated, broadly applicable tools? How to deal with the various scales of AQ issues: local, regional, national, interactive? Most useful format for output i.e., predicted cases of disease? Economic valuation? Accessibility and/or transparency of the model?

12. What are the Current Gaps in Analysis Capability? What kind of questions are current models equipped to address? What policy issues are not addressed by currently available tools? What are the key policy questions that should be addressed by models/analysis? Please focus on the policy analysis requirements; Let’s leave the actual policy debate for another day