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© 2008. Synovate Ltd. All rights reserved. The concepts and ideas submitted to you herein are the intellectual property of Synovate Ltd. They are strictly of confidential nature and are submitted to you under the understanding that they are to be considered by you in the strictest of confidence and that no use shall be made of the said concepts and ideas, including communication to any third party without Synovate’s express prior consent and/or payment of related professional services fees in full. Global Presidential Poll Readers Digest Date: July, 2008
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1 © Synovate 2008 Contents Executive Summary2 Research Overview6 Key Findings8
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Executive Summary
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© Synovate 2008 3 Executive Summary Attention to the Election Outside of the U.S., the amount of attention paid to the U.S. presidential election varies a great deal. The most attention paid to the election was reported by respondents in Canada, Germany, Netherlands, Finland, Australia, and South Africa. The least amount of attention given to the election was indicated in Brazil, Poland, Russia, India, and Taiwan.
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© Synovate 2008 4 Executive Summary Obama V. McCain While preference for the candidates is nearly equal in the U.S., support for Obama is significantly stronger in all other nations. In the U.S., McCain is seen as more qualified to address issues related to war and security, while Obama is the stronger candidate for humanitarian issues, such as poverty, the environment and human rights. -All other nations feel Obama is better suited to address all issues asked about, particularly the humanitarian issues. Globally, the most important issues are the economy, poverty, and the environment. The election of Obama would be more likely to improve the image of the U.S. -South Africa is the only country where the election of McCain would have a slightly more positive impact on the image of the U.S. Most countries believe a neutral or slightly positive effect on personal life would be achieved with the election of either candidate. -Indonesia constitutes the one exception, with the majority anticipating a negative effect (71% for McCain, 59% for Obama).
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© Synovate 2008 5 Executive Summary Additional Opinions Most agree that America is more ready to elect a black president than a woman president. Neutral to positive opinions about the US government are common. -India is the most Pro-American (31%) while Spain, Netherlands, Indonesia and Canada have the highest percent (21%, 21%, 20%, 19%) of respondents who are Anti-American. On average, just over 3 in 10 would be interested in moving to America if economic and political barriers were non-existent. -The majority in India (73%), South Africa (65%), the Netherlands (55%) and France (52%) would make the move. -In contrast, the least interest in moving to the U.S. was reported in Poland, Russia, Indonesia, and Australia. Approximately 70% of respondents in these countries expressed a lack of interest.
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Research Overview
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© Synovate 2008 7 Methodology Objectives: The objectives of this research were to determine international awareness of the US presidential campaign and who citizens of other countries would vote for, as well as gauge their opinion of each candidate on several globally significant issues. Methodology: Synovate’s Global Omnibus was used to conduct interviews in 15 countries from June 2 to July 7, 2008: -Telephone interviews were conducted via Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) networks in UK, France, Germany, Russia, Poland, Spain, Mexico, Brazil, Taiwan and Australia. -Face to face interviews are conducted door to door in South Africa, India and Indonesia. -Online interviews among nationally representative samples drawn from Synovate’s Consumer Opinion Panels were conducted in the US and Canada. -Data from the Netherlands and Finland were collected by an outside supplier. The data collection methods used in these countries were online and telephone, respectively.
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Key Findings Attention to Election9 Most Important Issue11 Obama v McCain20 Additional Insights31
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© Synovate 2008 9 The amount of attention paid to the U.S. election varies. The seventeen countries varied a great deal regarding how much attention respondents have given to the election. Other than the U.S., the countries where the most attention (i.e., more than half indicated “quite a lot” or “some” attention) was reported include Canada, Germany, Netherlands, Finland, Australia, and South Africa (see graph on the following page). The least amount of attention paid to the election was reported in Brazil, Poland, Russia, India and Taiwan. Across all countries, men and/or older respondents (55+) were significantly more likely than women and younger respondents (under 25) to report paying “quite a lot” of attention to the election.
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© Synovate 2008 10 The amount of attention paid to the U.S. election varies (continued). Q1: How much attention have you given to the upcoming election for the President of the United States? *(DK/Ref data not shown) 95% 92% 85% 83% 81% 79% 69% 64% 57% 51% 41% 30% 21% 85% 92% 84%
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Most Important Issue by Country
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© Synovate 2008 12 Summary – Most Important Issues Global EconomyGlobal PovertyEnvironment USA (26%) Indonesia (23%) India (21%) France (42%) Spain (37%) Mexico (35%) Poland (29%) South Africa (28%) Netherlands (23%) Taiwan (45%) Brazil (42%) Finland (36%) Australia (33%) Canada (31%) Germany (29%) UK (25%) Q4: Which ONE of these global issues do you feel is the most important to you? Of the eight issues presented, these three are consistently seen as most important.
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© Synovate 2008 13 The One Issue Seen as Most Important – North America Terrorism War in Iraq Global Economy Global Poverty Environment Human Rights International Trade Nuclear Proliferation Don’t Know USA Canada Q4: Which ONE of these global issues do you feel is the most important to you? Americans tend not to share Canadians concerns about the environment Americans see global economy as most important
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© Synovate 2008 14 The One Issue Seen as Most Important – Europe France Germany Terrorism War in Iraq Global Economy Global Poverty Environment Human Rights International Trade Nuclear Proliferation Don’t Know UK Q4: Which ONE of these global issues do you feel is the most important to you? The environment and global poverty are both important issues for Western Europeans.
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© Synovate 2008 15 The One Issue Seen as Most Important – Europe Poland Terrorism War in Iraq Global Economy Global Poverty Environment Human Rights International Trade Nuclear Proliferation Don’t Know Spain Russia Q4: Which ONE of these global issues do you feel is the most important to you? Russians are more likely to feel the threat of terrorism is most important compared to other European countries.
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© Synovate 2008 16 The One Issue Seen as Most Important – Europe Terrorism War in Iraq Global Economy Global Poverty Environment Human Rights International Trade Nuclear Proliferation Don’t Know Netherlands Finland Q4: Which ONE of these global issues do you feel is the most important to you? Human rights are nearly as important an issue as poverty in the Netherlands. In Finland, the environment causes the most concern.
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© Synovate 2008 17 The One Issue Seen as Most Important – Central/South America Terrorism War in Iraq Global Economy Global Poverty Environment Human Rights International Trade Nuclear Proliferation Don’t Know Mexico Brazil Q4: Which ONE of these global issues do you feel is the most important to you? Those in Central and South America attribute great importance to the issues of global poverty and the environment.
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© Synovate 2008 18 The One Issue Seen as Most Important – Pacific/Asia Australia India Terrorism War in Iraq Global Economy Global Poverty Environment Human Rights International Trade Nuclear Proliferation Don’t Know Indonesia Q4: Which ONE of these global issues do you feel is the most important to you? While Australians are concerned about the environment, the other Asian countries attribute more importance to economic and poverty-related issues.
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© Synovate 2008 19 The One Issue Seen as Most Important – Asia/Africa Terrorism War in Iraq Global Economy Global Poverty Environment Human Rights International Trade Nuclear Proliferation Don’t Know Taiwan South Africa Q4: Which ONE of these global issues do you feel is the most important to you? The Taiwanese share other Asian countries’ concerns about the economy, but place even stronger importance on environmental issues. Poverty and human rights are the most important issues for South Africans.
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Obama v. McCain
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© Synovate 2008 21 Outside the U.S. support for Obama is significantly stronger across all countries. Q2: If you could vote for the next president of the United States, who would you vote for? *(DK/Ref data not shown) While in the U.S., preference for the candidates is nearly equal. Obama supporters tend to be younger (under 35), whereas McCain supporters tend to be older (55+) and male.
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© Synovate 2008 22 “Which Candidate Would Do A Better Job Addressing…” - North America Terrorism War in Iraq Global Economy Global Poverty Environment Human Rights International Trade Nuclear Proliferation USA Canada Q3: For each of the global issues below, which candidate would do a better job at addressing the issue? *(DK/Ref data not shown) In the U.S., McCain is seen as more qualified to address issues related to war and security, while Obama is the stronger candidate for humanitarian issues, such as poverty, the environment and human rights. Canadians feel Obama is better suited to address all issues, particularly humanitarian issues. John McCain Barack Obama
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© Synovate 2008 23 “Which Candidate Would Do A Better Job Addressing…” - Europe Terrorism War in Iraq Global Economy Global Poverty Environment Human Rights International Trade Nuclear Proliferation France GermanyUK Q3: For each of the global issues below, which candidate would do a better job at addressing the issue? *(DK/Ref data not shown) Europeans feel Obama would do a better job at addressing all issues, particularly poverty, the environment and human rights. John McCain Barack Obama
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© Synovate 2008 24 “Which Candidate Would Do A Better Job Addressing…” - Europe Terrorism War in Iraq Global Economy Global Poverty Environment Human Rights International Trade Nuclear Proliferation Poland Spain Russia Q3: For each of the global issues below, which candidate would do a better job at addressing the issue? *(DK/Ref data not shown) While trending the same as the rest of Europe, Russians and Poles are less likely to see either candidate as able to address these issues. John McCain Barack Obama
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© Synovate 2008 25 “Which Candidate Would Do A Better Job Addressing…” - Europe Terrorism War in Iraq Global Economy Global Poverty Environment Human Rights International Trade Nuclear Proliferation Finland Netherlands Q3: For each of the global issues below, which candidate would do a better job at addressing the issue? *(DK/Ref data not shown) Opinions in the Netherlands and Finland trend the same as the rest of Europe. John McCain Barack Obama
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© Synovate 2008 26 “Which Candidate Would Do A Better Job Addressing…” – Central/South America Terrorism War in Iraq Global Economy Global Poverty Environment Human Rights International Trade Nuclear Proliferation Mexico Brazil Q3: For each of the global issues below, which candidate would do a better job at addressing the issue? *(DK/Ref data not shown) There is a strong preference for Obama as the candidate that would best address any issue. John McCain Barack Obama
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© Synovate 2008 27 “Which Candidate Would Do A Better Job Addressing…” – Pacific/Asia Terrorism War in Iraq Global Economy Global Poverty Environment Human Rights International Trade Nuclear Proliferation Australia IndiaIndonesia Q3: For each of the global issues below, which candidate would do a better job at addressing the issue? *(DK/Ref data not shown) Again, Obama is seen as more proficient on these global issues, though respondents in India are less likely to have an opinion about either candidate. John McCain Barack Obama
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© Synovate 2008 28 “Which Candidate Would Do A Better Job Addressing…” – Asia/Africa Terrorism War in Iraq Global Economy Global Poverty Environment Human Rights International Trade Nuclear Proliferation Taiwan South Africa Q3: For each of the global issues below, which candidate would do a better job at addressing the issue? *(DK/Ref data not shown) John McCain Barack Obama And again, Obama is perceived as being able to do a better job addressing all of these issues.
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© Synovate 2008 29 Obama would be more likely to improve the image of the U.S. Q5: How would your image of America change if these candidates became president…? % Improve Significantly/Somewhat Respondents in sixteen of the seventeen countries were significantly more likely to anticipate an improvement in their image of the U.S. if Obama is elected. Respondents under 25 years of age were particularly likely to feel this way. South Africa is the only country where the election of McCain would have a slightly more positive impact on their image of the U.S.
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© Synovate 2008 30 Candidates would have little impact on current family life. JOHN McCAINBARACK OBAMA NegativelyNot at AllPositivelyNegativelyNot at AllPositively ABCDEF US125E6111280C Canada1384413841 France5D771317423 Germany2771607125 UK576E1136230C Spain12D671615838C Russia2751817813 Poland2732117616 Netherlands-492115521 Finland2D841007919C Mexico12D691986428C Brazil7572755140C Australia4682326428 India6255242958 Indonesia71D197592611 Taiwan0702517520 South Africa7404343359C Q6: If (candidate respondent would vote for) were to get elected, do you think he would affect the life of you and your family…? *(DK/Ref data not shown) Most countries believe a neutral or slightly positive effect on personal life would be achieved with the election of either candidate. Indonesia is the one exception, with the majority anticipating a negative effect.
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Additional Insights
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© Synovate 2008 32 America is more ready to elect a Black President than a Woman President. Q12: Please tell me how much you agree or disagree with the following statements. *(DK/Ref data not shown) % Agree Completely/Somewhat However, at least 4 in 10 in all countries (excluding India) also believe that America would be ready for a woman president. (Note: Most polling was conducted after it was clear that Obama would be the presumptive nominee, and this could have influenced the responses to these questions.) America is ready to elect a Black President/a Woman President
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© Synovate 2008 33 Neutral to positive opinions of the U.S. are common. Q14: When you think of the United States government, do you consider yourself…? *(DK/Ref data not shown) The majority hold a neutral to positive opinion of the U.S. government. India is most Pro-American while Spain, Netherlands, Indonesia and Canada have the highest percent who are Anti-American. Across most countries men and those aged 55+ tend to be more Pro-American.
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© Synovate 2008 34 On average, just over 3 in 10 would be interested in a move to the U.S. Q13: If you were able to move without any political or economic barriers, how interested would you be in moving to the US? *(DK/Ref data not shown) % Very/Somewhat Interested Though the majority in India, South Africa, the Netherlands and France would be ready to make the move. Respondents under 25 are particularly likely to feel this way.
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