1. Scientific Management of Mediterranean coastal zone: an Ocean Forecasting System for Oil Spill and Search and Rescue Operations Jordi, A. 1, M. I. Ferrer 1, G. Vizoso 1, A. Orfila 2, G. Basterretxea 1, B. Casas 1, A. Álvarez 1, D. Roig 1, B. Garau 1, M. Martínez 1, V. Fernández 1, A. Fornés 1, M. Ruiz 1, J. J. Fornós 3, P. Balaguer 1, C. M. Duarte 1, I. Rodríguez 4, E. Alvarez 4, R. Onken 5, J. Tintoré 1 1 GOIFIS, IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), www.imedea.csic.uib/goifis 2 School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University 3 Departament de Ciències de la Terra, UIB 4 Área del Medio Físico, Puertos del Estado 5 Institute of Coastal Research, GKSS Research Centre

2. Outline Description of the system Operational circulation sub-system Coastal ocean forecast Ocean observations Atmospheric forcing Oil spill coastal sub-system Trajectories Environmental sensitivity Management sub-system Application to Mallorca: MED05 System configuration Results: Currents Results: Drifting buoys Conclusions

3. Description of the system

4. Operational circulation sub-system The goal of the operational sub-system is to provide, in near- real time, reliable information and forecasts for marine environmental conditions, to support all kind of activities at sea. The operational circulation sub-system is based on an interdisciplinary observing system coupled with numerical predictive models of atmospheric and oceanic state variables. Data assimilation merges the observation with different model state variables.

5. Coastal ocean forecast The Mediterranean Sea is a complex and variable ocean system where several temporal and spatial scales (basin, sub-basin and local) interact to form a highly variable general circulation.

6. Coastal ocean forecast: Basin scale Examples of scientific results since 1995 (year of the first paper published in the subject in peer reviewed journals): large scale circulation, role of bottom topography, specific features, transport in detailed sections, etc.

7. Coastal ocean forecast: Sub-basin scale Examples of scientific results since 1992: mesoscale/mean flow interactions, blocking basin scale circulation in specific sub- basins, circulation Alborán and Balearic Seas, etc.

8. Coastal ocean forecast: Local scale Examples of scientific results since 1993: sub- basin-local interaction through canyons, shelf/slope exchanges, circulation in bays, residence times and water quality, etc.

9. Coastal ocean forecast: Forecasting tools Capacities for near-real time data assimilation together with new tools for initialization and/or assimilation of satellite data. SOFT (Satellite Ocean Forecasting Tool) is based on nonlinear prediction techniques like genetic algorithms to forecast future ocean states at the specific sub-basins. FORMS (Feature-Oriented Regional Modeling Sampling ) is a generic and portable methodology to initialize and/or to update fields for a coastal ocean model.

10. Ocean observations

11. Atmospheric forcing Improvements in numerical weather prediction models have given access to surface fluxes with high temporal and spatial resolution of sufficient quality for use in forcing ocean models. ECMWF: European Center for Medium-term Weather Forecasting INM: Instituto Nacional de Meteorología UIB: Universitat de les Illes Balears

12. Oil spill coastal sub-system: Trajectories The oil spill coastal sub-system incorporates the information associated with the response to oil spills. The trajectories module predicts the spill trajectory taking into account the physical and chemical processes that affect the oil and is based on the General NOAA Oil Modeling Environment (GNOME).

13. Oil spill coastal sub-system: Environmental sensitivity The Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) evaluates the coastal zone vulnerability combining physical, biological, geological and socio-economic parameters of the coastline into a single environmental sensitivity index to oil spills.

14. Management sub-system The management sub-system is based on a geographical information system (GIS) for oil spill crisis management. It incorporates all the available information, identifies resources at risk, establishes protection priorities and appropriate response.

15. Application to Mallorca: MED05 MED05 exercise 10 th – 11 th – 12 th May 2005

16. MED05: System configuration Real time data SST CTD Atmospheric forcing INM - HIRLAM (0.16º) Wave model Puertos del Estado Oceanic circulation model DieCAST (0.03º) Nested to MFSTEP Oil spill model GNOME U. Cantabria 0612 …72 hours

17. MED05: Currents

18. Comparison between real (intense color) and predicted trajectories (soft color). Points indicates the position every 12 hours. Circle represents the initial position. Title indicates the initial date. MED05: Drifting buoys

19. Comparison between real (intense color) and predicted trajectories (soft color). Points indicates the position every 12 hours. Circle represents the initial position. Title indicates the initial date. MED05: Drifting buoys

20. Comparison between real (intense color) and predicted trajectories (soft color). Points indicates the position every 12 hours. Circle represents the initial position. Title indicates the initial date. MED05: Drifting buoys

21. Comparison between real (intense color) and predicted trajectories (soft color). Points indicates the position every 12 hours. Circle represents the initial position. Title indicates the initial date. MED05: Drifting buoys

22. Conclusions An ocean forecasting system for management of the Mediterranean coastal zone has been described. The system can be used for other applications like search and rescue operations. MED05 exercise demonstrates the capability of the system to provide real-time currents and drifting buoys predictions. MED05 exercise shows the importance of small scale variability in the Mediterranean Sea