1. Shonali Pachauri and Daniel Spreng Some remarks on the choice and use of indicators of development

2. Content  General considerations  Time scale and level of aggregation (number of people, geographic space)  Degree of change  Where is it happening?  In function of what is it happening?  Example: Energy use and number of people per family  Naïve view  Decrease of family size: an important attribute of development  Informed view  Conclusions

3. Time scale Employment in the three sectors (Switzerland) Services Industry & trade Agriculture 1940 2020 Services

4. Level of aggregation Country: Household: time E Country =   E Households (transitions taking place over the years) ? ?? E E E E Traditional fuel Modern fuel

5. Degree of change Country: Household: time E Country =   E Households (transitions taking place over the years) ? ?? E E E E Traditional fuel Modern fuel

6. Clearly a transformation: Depict what is coming to an end E Country =   E Households (transitions taking place over the years) time E Traditional fuel Modern fuel Household:

7. Where is it happening? Calculations based on NSS data, round 55 (year 1999-2000).

8. Electrification of the districts Calculations based on NSS data, round 55 (year 1999-2000).

9. Level of aggregation  Person  Household  Village/district …. occupational group …. decile … or group with specific characterisation  Country  Globe

10. The search for groups Two years of cluster analysis with household survey data (sample of 30'000 to 120'000 HH) with about 200 consumption items. We were looking for “stable” groups like:  Tribes people  Rural unemployed and landless peasants  Traditional merchants and craftsmen  Peasants with small farms  Big farmers  The urban poor  Blue-collar employees of western-style firms and factories  Servants  The new middle class  The upper class

11. More than 60 watt/capita Two or more warm meals, hot water, lighting, some space heating and – for groups with electri- city, possibly space cooling, plus other electric appliances. Possibly scooter, car. 30-60 watt/capita Two warm meals per day ( perhaps “farmers portions”), hot water and light. Perhaps small electric appliances (TV, tele- phone, fridge) for groups with electrici- ty. Possibly scooter. 15-30 watt/capita One to two warm meals per day (for farmers and manual labourers below basic need), a few kerosene lamps or one electric bulb, some hot water Less than 15 watt/capita Less than one warm meal per day, a kerosene lamp, possibly a little hot water LPG, Electricity and possibly others Electricity, biomass and/or Kerosene Biomass and Kerosene Useful energy Examples of energy services, which may be available in the given intervals of useful energy Access Examples of type of information analyzed: Nos of people % of people % Literate % Rural % with Tap water Avg p.c land holding Avg p.c. expenditure The Energy Access-Consumption Matrix

12. Energy Poverty and Energy Distribution Social development Pachauri, S., Mueller, A., Kemmler, A. and Spreng, D. (2004) On Measuring Energy Poverty in Indian Households World Development 32 (12) 2083-2104

13. Who is deciding?  Electrification: distinct decisions  In states, districts and villages by the utilities  But also of the households  Switch to clean cooking fuels  Initially some decisions required in the supply chain  But mainly a decision for the households

14. In function of what are decisions taken?  Electrification: distinct decisions  In states, districts and villages by the utilities  But also of the households -More a question of whether to step out of the poverty trap and join the “western” technological world or not rather than an economic question  Switch to clean cooking fuels  Initially some decisions required in the supply chain  But mainly a decision for the households -Both an economic question and -A question of attitude of household heads towards women

15. Energy as a function of what – on which level of aggregation?  A given function on one level will not necessarily translate into the same function at a different level of aggregation  Indicators relevant to some decisions may not be relevant to other decisions  What follows is an example of this: energy use as a function of household size

16. The naïve, bottom-up view Smaller households higher per capita energy use – economies of scale Source: Indian Household Consumer Surveys, NSSO, GoI, various years

17. Drivers of Change in Family Size Demographic Transition Lower fertility – fewer births Lower mortality – longer lives Health Transition Fewer communi- cable diseases, more non-communicable Economic growth Urbanization Access to better health services Culture and traditions Family relations formation and dissolution Hygiene and cleanliness Gender roles Education Multiplicative relationship between driving forces Family size

18. Differences in Family Size – A Broader View Implications for energy and development – What is the composition and characteristic of larger households? Source: O’Neill & S.Chen 2002 Evidence from the USA: Larger house- holds are poorer per capita Larger house- holds are com- posed of more children Larger house- holds tend to have members in the middle age group