1. Indicators for policy support of atmosphere related environmental problems Robert Koelemeijer National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) ETC - Air and Climate Change

2. 20-1-2004Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC2 Contents Indicators + examples Stratospheric ozone Air pollution Climate change  Present status of indicators  How do/can satellite observations contribute to indicators

3. 20-1-2004Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC3 Indicators: DPSIR Indicators: used to analyse developments measure distance-to-target

4. 20-1-2004Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC4 Stratospheric ozone Policy objective (Montreal protocol) : phase-out use of ozone depleting substances

5. 20-1-2004Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC5 Stratospheric ozone State indicators: Concentrations CFCs, HCFCs, Halons: ground-based data Ozone column density: TOMS, GOME,...

6. 20-1-2004Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC6 Stratospheric ozone Monitoring ozone layer from space is a success story: –total column density is the relevant quantity –accuracy sufficient (few %) –continuity of observations OK Future observations needed: –will ozone layer recover? –interaction with climate change?

7. 20-1-2004Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC7 Air quality Ground based networks (EMEP, Airbase) –Components: O 3, NO, NO 2, VOCs, SO 2, CO, PM10, PM2.5, toxics, heavy metals (Pb, Ni, Cd, As, Hg),... –Sites: street / urban background / rural background –Accuracy depends on component. Typically 5-30% for single measurement. –Some of the drawbacks: necessarily limited density of stations different network design per country

8. 20-1-2004Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC8 Concentration NO 2 (794 Airbase stations) NO2 annual mean 0 20 40 60 80 1995199619971998199920002001 concentration (ug/m3) street urban rural EU limit value

9. 20-1-2004Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC9 NO 2 map Yearly average 2000 Urban background

10. 20-1-2004Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC10 GOME observations: tropospheric NO2 Image courtesy KNMI

11. 20-1-2004Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC11 ATSR-2: aerosols over land Image courtesy TNO-FEL

12. 20-1-2004Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC12 MODIS AOD - PM2.5 correlation Kittaka et al., 84th AMS conference

13. 20-1-2004Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC13 Air pollution Synergy between ground-based and satellite observations could be further explored Satellite measurements Model Assimilation Ground-based measurements EmissionsConcentrations (analysis & forecast) Depositions

14. 20-1-2004Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC14 Air pollution Satellites should sample boundary layer  small pixel size (~10x10 km2) required –look between clouds –resolve source areas priority species: –PM10 and PM2.5 –Ozone (ground-level and tropospheric column (CC))

15. 20-1-2004Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC15 Climate Change Kyoto-monitoring: emissions estimated through “activity” approach (emission = activity x emission factor) reporting guidelines fixed (IPCC) same method for all years (1990 - 2012)

16. 20-1-2004Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC16 GHG inverse modelling Inverse modelling of satellite observations of CO 2 and CH 4 might give useful constraints on sources and sinks. But research has only started recently. Some bottlenecks: –Data availability (Mopitt?, Sciamachy?, NASA/OCO) –Global anthropogenic CO 2 emissions are rather well known (< 10%). Inverse modelling will constrain locations and strengths of natural sources and sinks. –Constraining anthropogenic CH 4 seems better feasible: shorter lifetime, anthropogenic emissions less well known and of similar magnitude as natural emissions.

17. 20-1-2004Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC17 Other forcings and feedbacks Climate change policy heavily depends on science (IPCC): current effects are only minor compared to future. Model validation necessary to improve projections –Greenhouse gases –Aerosols (land & ocean) –Clouds Aerosols and tropospheric O 3 (precursors) not in Kyoto protocol, but monitoring these are important both for climate change and air quality.

18. 20-1-2004Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC18 State and impact indicators for Europe have been developed recently by ETC-ACC. –Temperature, precipitation, extremes –Cryosphere (snow cover, glaciers, Arctic sea ice) –Marine system (sea level, SST, marine growing season, shifts in species distribution) –Ecosystems and biodiversity –Public health (tick borne diseases, heat-waves) Non-atmospheric satellite measurements used for CC State & Impact indicators: e.g., detection of changes Arctic sea-ice and snow cover.  Need for long-term satellite observational records State + impact indicators

19. 20-1-2004Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC19 Climate change Arctic Sea-ice Extent anomaly since 1973 Source: IPCC, 2001

20. 20-1-2004Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC20 Conclusions Ozone layer: monitoring from space is a success story: sufficient accuracy for long-term ozone trend detection and long-term continuity assured Air quality: assessments may improve through synergy between ground-based and satellite measurements Climate change: inverse modelling of ground- and satellite observations may constrain CO 2 and CH 4 sources & sinks. Research recently started. But unlikely to improve anthropogenic CO 2 emission inventories. Indicators are only part of the story. Scientific progress (model validation, constraining natural fluxes, etc) is crucial to improve projections.