1. Mitigation of Climate Change
IPCC Working Group III contribution to the
Fourth Assessment Report
Bert Metz
Co-chair IPCC WG III
WMO, Geneva, May 15, 2007

2. The people Lead Authors: 168 Contributing authors: 85
from developing countries: 55
From EITs: 5
from OECD countries: 108
Contributing authors: 85
Expert Reviewers: 485

3. Between 1970 and 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 70 %
Total GHG emissions
GtCO2-eq/yr 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5
1970
1980
1990
2000
2004

4. Carbon dioxide is the largest contributor

5. With current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable development practices, global GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades
IPCC SRES scenarios: %
increase of GHG emissions
in 2030 relative to 2000
GtCO2eq/yr
2030

6. Mitigation potential Mitigation potential: Market potential:
Emission reduction, relative to emission baselines, that is economically attractive at a given “price of carbon”
Market potential:
Based on private costs and private rates of return
Expected to occur under forecast market conditions
Including policies and measures currently in place
Barriers limit actual uptake
Economic potential:
Takes into account social costs and benefits and social rates of return,
Assuming that market efficiency is improved by policies and measures and
Barriers are removed

7. Global economic potential in 2030
Economic mitigation potential could offset the projected growth of global emissions, or reduce emissions below current levels
Both bottom-up and top-down studies
BOTTOM-UP
TOP-DOWN
Global economic potential in 2030
Note: estimates do not include non-technical options such as lifestyle changes

8. What does US$ 50/ tCO2eq mean?
Crude oil: ~US$ 25/ barrel
Gasoline: ~12 ct/ litre (50 ct/gallon)
Electricity:
from coal fired plant: ~5 ct/kWh
from gas fired plant: ~1.5 ct/kWh

9. All sectors and regions have the potential to contribute
Note: estimates do not include non-technical options, such as lifestyle changes.

10. How can emissions be reduced?
Sector
Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available. (Selected)
Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before (Selected)
Energy Supply
efficiency; fuel switching; nuclear power; renewable (hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy); combined heat and power; early applications of CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS)
CCS for gas, biomass and coal-fired electricity generating facilities;
advanced nuclear power;
advanced renewables (tidal and waves energy, concentrating solar, solar PV)
Potential share of global electricity supply in 2030 for carbon prices < US$50/tCO2eq:
Renewable energy: 30-35% (now 18%)
Nuclear energy: 18% (now 16%)

11. How can emissions be reduced?
Sector
(Selected) Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available.
Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before (Selected)
Transport
More fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles; biofuels; modal shifts from road transport to rail and public transport systems; cycling, walking; land-use planning
Second generation biofuels; higher efficiency aircraft; advanced electric and hybrid vehicles with more powerful and reliable batteries
Biofuel potential 2030:
Depends on production pathway, vehicle efficiency, oil and carbon prices
3% of global transport energy in 2030
5-10% , if cellulose biomass is commercialised
Watch out for: land and water availability, competition with food

12. How can emissions be reduced?
Sector
(Selected) Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available.
Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before (Selected)
Agriculture
Land management to increase soil carbon storage; restoration of degraded lands; improved rice cultivation techniques; improved nitrogen fertilizer application; dedicated energy crops
Crop yield improvement
Forests
Afforestation; reforestation; forest management; reduced deforestation; use of forestry products for bioenergy
Improved species and productivity; remote sensing systems
Agriculture: soil carbon sequestration ~90%
Forests: avoided deforestation ~50%
Effect of climate change < 2030: uncertain

13. Changes in lifestyle and behaviour patterns can contribute to climate change mitigation
Changes in occupant behaviour, cultural patterns and consumer choice in buildings.
Reduction of car usage and efficient driving style, in relation to urban planning and availability of public transport
Behaviour of staff in industrial organizations in light of reward systems

14. What are the macro-economic costs in 2030?
Costs are global average for least cost appoaches from top-down models
Costs do not include co-benefits and avoided climate change damages
Trajectories towards stabilization levels
(ppm CO2-eq)
Median
GDP reduction[1]
(%)
Range of GDP reduction [2]
Reduction of average annual GDP growth rates [3]
(percentage points)
0.2
-0.6 – 1.2
< 0.06
0.6
0.2 – 2.5
<0.1
[4]
Not available
< 3
< 0.12
[1] This is global GDP based market exchange rates.
[2] The median and the 10th and 90th percentile range of the analyzed data are given.
[3] The calculation of the reduction of the annual growth rate is based on the average reduction during the period till 2030
that would result in the indicated GDP decrease in 2030.
[4] The number of studies that report GDP results is relatively small and they generally use low baselines.

15. Illustration of cost numbers
GDP
GDP without mitigation
80%
77%
GDP with stringent mitigation
current
Time
~1 year

16. There are also co-benefits of mitigation
Near–term health benefits from reduced air pollution may offset a substantial fraction of mitigation costs
Mitigation can also be positive for: energy security, balance of trade improvement, provision of modern energy services to rural areas, sustainable agriculture and employment

17. Stabilisation of GHG concentrations (radiative forcing) in the atmosphere and emission reductions
The lower the stabilisation level the earlier global CO2 emissions have to peak
Multigas and CO2 only studies combined

18. Stabilisation and equilibrium global mean temperatures
Equilibrium temperatures reached after 2100
Uncertainty of climate sensitivity important
Multigas and CO2 only studies combined

19. Long term mitigation (after 2030)
Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will have a large impact on opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels
Stab level
(ppm CO2-eq)
Global Mean temp. increase
at equilibrium (ºC)
Year global CO2 needs to peak
Year global CO2 emissions back at 2000 level
Reduction in 2050 global CO2 emissions compared to 2000
445 – 490
2.0 – 2.4
-85 to -50
490 – 535
2.4 – 2.8
-60 to -30
535 – 590
2.8 – 3.2
-30 to +5
590 – 710
3.2 – 4.0
+10 to +60
710 – 855
4.0 – 4.9
+25 to +85
855 – 1130
4.9 – 6.1
+90 to +140
[1] The best estimate of climate sensitivity is 3ºC [WG 1 SPM].
[2] Note that global mean temperature at equilibrium is different from expected global mean temperature at the time of stabilization of GHG concentrations due to the inertia of the climate system. For the majority of scenarios assessed, stabilisation of GHG concentrations occurs between 2100 and 2150.
[3] Ranges correspond to the 15th to 85th percentile of the post-TAR scenario distribution. CO2 emissions are shown so multi-gas scenarios can be compared with CO2-only scenarios.

20. Technology The range of stabilization levels can be achieved by
deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are currently available and
those that are expected to be commercialised in coming decades.
This assumes that appropriate and effective incentives are in place for development, acquisition, deployment and diffusion of technologies and for addressing related barriers

21. What are the macro-economic costs in 2050?
Trajectories towards stabilization levels
(ppm CO2-eq)
Median
GDP reduction[1]
(%)
Range of GDP reduction [2]
Reduction of average annual GDP growth rates [3]
(percentage points)
0.5
-1 – 2
< 0.05
1.3
Slightly negative - 4
<0.1
[4]
Not available
< 5.5
< 0.12
[1] This is global GDP based market exchange rates.
[2] The median and the 10th and 90th percentile range of the analyzed data are given.
[3] The calculation of the reduction of the annual growth rate is based on the average reduction during the period till 2050
that would result in the indicated GDP decrease in 2050.
[4] The number of studies that report GDP results is relatively small and they generally use low baselines.

22. Policies are available to to governments to realise mitigation of climate change
Effectiveness of policies depends on national circumstances, their design, interaction, stringency and implementation
Integrating climate policies in broader development policies
Regulations and standards
Taxes and charges
Tradable permits
Financial incentives
Voluntary agreements
Information instruments
Research and development

23. Selected sectoral policies, measures and instruments that have shown to be environmentally effective
Policies[1], measures and instruments shown to be environmentally effective
Key constraints or opportunities
Energy supply
Reduction of fossil fuel subsidies
Resistance by vested interests may make them difficult to implement
Taxes or carbon charges on fossil fuels
Feed-in tariffs for renewable energy technologies
May be appropriate to create markets for low emissions technologies
Renewable energy obligations
Producer subsidies
[1] Public RD&D investment in low emission technologies have proven to be effective in all sectors.

24. Selected sectoral policies, measures and instruments that have shown to be environmentally effective
Policies[1], measures and instruments shown to be environmentally effective
Key constraints or opportunities
Transport
Mandatory fuel economy, biofuel blending and CO2 standards for road transport
Partial coverage of vehicle fleet may limit effectiveness
Taxes on vehicle purchase, registration, use and motor fuels, road and parking pricing
Effectiveness may drop with higher incomes
Influence mobility needs through land use regulations, and infrastructure planning
Particularly appropriate for countries that are building up their transportation systems
Investment in attractive public transport facilities and non-motorised forms of transport
[1] Public RD&D investment in low emission technologies have proven to be effective in all sectors.

25. An effective carbon-price signal could realise significant mitigation potential in all sectors
Policies that provide a real or implicit price of carbon could create incentives for producers and consumers to significantly invest in low-GHG products, technologies and processes.
Such policies could include economic instruments, government funding and regulation
For stabilisation at around 550 ppm CO2eq carbon prices should reach US$/tCO2eq by 2030 (5-65 if “induced technological change” happens)
At these carbon prices large shifts of investments into low carbon technologies can be expected

26. The importance of technology policies
The lower the stabilization levels (550 ppm CO2-eq or lower) the greater the need for more efficient RD&D efforts and investment in new technologies during the next few decades (for achieving stabilisation and reducing costs).
Government support through financial contributions, tax credits, standard setting and market creation is important for effective technology development, innovation and deployment.
Government funding for most energy research programmes has been flat or declining for nearly two decades (even after the UNFCCC came into force); now about half of 1980 level.

27. Investments
Energy infrastructure investment decisions, (20 trillion US$ till 2030) will have long term impacts on GHG emissions.
The widespread diffusion of low-carbon technologies may take many decades, even if early investments in these technologies are made attractive.
Returning global energy-related CO2 emissions to 2005 levels by 2030 would require a large shift in the pattern of investment, although the net additional investment required ranges from negligible to 5-10%
It is often more cost-effective to invest in end-use energy efficiency improvement than in increasing energy supply

28. International agreements
Notable achievements of the UNFCCC/Kyoto Protocol that may provide the foundation for future mitigation efforts:
global response to the climate problem,
stimulation of an array of national policies,
the creation of an international carbon market and
new institutional mechanisms
Future agreements:
Greater cooperative efforts to reduce emissions will help to reduce global costs for achieving a given level of mitigation, or will improve environmental effectiveness
Improving, and expanding the scope of, market mechanisms (such as emission trading, Joint Implementation and CDM) could reduce overall mitigation costs
Assessed literature on future agreements on basis of criteria for enevironmental/ cost effectiveness, distributional/ institutional feasibility

29. Two-way Relationship Between Climate Change and Sustainable Development
Climate policy can have positive or negative effects on other aspects of SD
-- Ancillary benefits or co-benefits
Non-climate policies can influence GHG emissions as much as specific climate policies
-- Requires mainstreaming climate change in decision-making

30. Examples of side-effects of climate mitigation
OPTIONS
Energy: efficiency, renewables, fuel-switching
SYNERGIES
air quality
supply security
employment
costs (efficiency)
TRADEOFFS
particulate emissions (diesel)
biodiversity (biofuels)
costs (renewables)
Forestry: reduce deforestation, plant trees
soil protection
water management
biodiversity (deforest.)
biodiversity (plantations)
competition food production
waste: landfill gas capture, incineration
health & safety
energy advantages
ground water pollution
costs A

31. Non-climate policies can influence GHG emissions as much as specific climate policiesB
Sectors
Non-climate policies -- Candidates for integrating climate concerns
Possible influence (% of global emissions)
Macro-economy
Taxes, subsidies, other fiscal policies
All GHG emissions (100%)
Forestry
Forest protection, sustainable management
GHGs deforestation (7%)
Electricity
Diversification to low-carbon sources, demand management, limit distribution losses
Electricity sector emissions (20 %)
Oil-imports
Diversification energy sources/decrease intensity -> enhance energy security
GHGs from oil product imports (20 %)
Insurance (buildings, infrastructure)
Differentiated premiums, liability conditions, green products
GHG emissions buildings, transport (20%)
Bank lending
Strategy/policy, lending projects accounting for options emission limitations
Notably development projects (25%)
Rural energy
Policies promoting LPG, kerosene and electricity for cooking
Extra emissions over biomass (<2 %)

32. The full SPM can be downloaded from www. ipcc
The full SPM can be downloaded from Further information: IPCC Working group III Technical Support Unit: