1. 1 Merritt TSA Type II Silviculture Analysis Merritt, B.C. April 5th, 2007

2. 2 Presentation Overview  Project Objectives  MPB in Merritt  Basecase  Sensitivity Analyses  FFT Opportunity

3. 3 Project Objectives Impact of MPB on harvest levels and other forest values such as wildlife habitat Evaluate how silviculture can reduce the impacts More specifically:  When, and by how much, will the beetle affect timber supply  Recommend and assess potential ways to improve timber supply and non-timber values  Prioritize spending

4. 4 Classification of Land Base TSA Area Retention No Treatment Partial Cut Restoration to Enhance Major Salvage Basic Obligations Silviculture Opportunity Basic Silviculture: Fire/Pest Incremental Silv.: Fert., Thin, Prune

5. 5 Mountain Pine Beetle Severity% Affected Trace0 – 1 Low1 – 10 Moderate11 – 30 Severe31 - 50 Very severe51+

6. 6 2006 projection - Merritt

7. 7 2010 projection - Merritt

8. 8 2015 projection - Merritt

9. 9 2020 projection - Merritt

10. 10 Merritt MPB Projections by Severity

11. 11 Defining a Base Case  Updated netdown;  Updated resultant file, which includes an updated inventory;  New analysis units and yield tables;  Recalculation of the PSI for each resultant polygon;  Old growth management area (OGMAs);  Disturbing the inoperable;  Updated UWR modelling; and  MPB projections to 2015.

12. 12 Base Case

13. 13 Conversion to Managed

14. 14 Harvest by Species

15. 15 ECA by CWS

16. 16 -Return on Investment (ROI) -Merchantability Economic Indicators

17. 17 Return On Investment (ROI) Uses TIPSY to generate: Yield Tables Costs and Revenues Standardized FFT IRR Worksheet: Calculates ROI and NPVs

18. 18 Example ROI Output ROI = 3.38%

19. 19 Merchantability A tool for describing the relative economics of timber harvesting opportunities across a forested landbase. Merchantability = Product Value – Operating Costs

20. 20 Merchantability- Product Value Product value approximates the selling price for lumber and chips Product Value is a function of:  Site Index  Species  Stocking  Age

21. 21 Merchantability- Operating Costs Costs involved in operating, building roads, harvesting wood, manufacturing products and reforestation  Operating cost is a function of:  Slope  Terrain  Volume/ha  Cycle time  Species  BEC zone  Stocking  Age

22. 22 Merchantability- Index Each stand given a Merchantability Class Summarized by graphs and maps

23. 23 Merchantability- Map product

24. 24 Merchantability- Area Summary

25. 25 Sensitivity Analyses

26. 26 Harvest all MPB Very Severe

27. 27 Plant all unharvested MPB Plant 122,000 ha Mid term increase: 370,000 m 3 /year

28. 28 Plant Unharvested MPB-ROI > 2% Plant 89,000 ha Mid term increase: 370,000 m 3 /year

29. 29 Faster MPB Spread

30. 30 Presently Utilized Uplift Level

31. 31 Retain 150m 3 /ha non-Pl

32. 32 Kill MPB down to 10cm DBH

33. 33 Two year shelf life

34. 34 Two year shelf life-Availability

35. 35 Plant GI spruce instead of pine

36. 36 Retention Sensitivities

37. 37 FFT Opportunity Scenario  Increased Planting of Genetically Improved Spruce  Plant all unharvested MPB kill with an ROI > 2%  CWS Restoration (planting) occurs irrespective of ROI  Retention of 100% FN Retention areas

38. 38 FFT Opportunity Scenario

39. 39 FFT Opportunity Age class

40. 40 FFT Opportunity ECA Impact

41. 41 FFT Planting Opportunity

42. 42 Classification of Landbase

43. 43 Classification of Landbase

44. 44 Environmental Reporting  Seral Stage  Patch Size  Fine filter- UWR/Grizzly/Woodpecker  Harvest in FN Retention Area  CWS- ECA/Road Density/Seral stage

45. 45 Seral Stage

46. 46 Harvest in FN Retention Areas  No harvest in FN 100% for 15 years

47. 47 Patch Size

48. 48 CWS ECA

49. 49 CWS Seral Stage