1. Govert D. Geldof Geldof c.s. (Netherlands) & DTU Environment Lyngby VUPTI Meeting Taastrup, 9 June 2010

2. Presentation Climate Change Adaptation is complex? Top 5: 1. Accepting complexity 2. The power of practice 3. Making perceptions explicit 4. The importance of history 5. Story telling Conclusions

5. Climate Change Adaptation Adaptation is not new: social and natural systems have always adapted to change New: pro-active adaptation (a hundred years) Complex?

6. Time Danger 2010 2100 Climate Change Bifurcation Point

7. Arnhem Nijmegen Bifurcation point

8. Complexity There are many uncertainties: Is there a bifurcation point? If yes: are we approaching the bifurcation point or did we already pass it? What measures do we have to take and what will be the effect? There are many people involved with different opinions: we depend on them (e.g. politicians & citizens) Etc.

9. 1: Accept complexity It makes life simpler

10. Paradox When we accept that we might fail, the probability of success will increase "Conceiving a safety without risk is like seeking love without courting the danger of rejection“ (Wildavsky, 1988)

11. 2. The Power of Practice Complex processes can only be dealt with in practice Prudence: develop practical knowledge

12. Theory Practice

13. Example: maintenance

14. 3. Making perceptions explicit People have different perceptions both about problem and solutions ( → complexity ) Many projects fail because people involved pre-assume that other people have the same perception as they have Ask: What do you think the problem is? What is your role? What is your responsibility?

15. Let’s adapt Peak rain and flooding Droughts – water shortage Heat Island effect Wind Connection to other aspects of the urban environment (traffic, quality of housing, facilities, social safety, etc.)

16. City planning department Dep of street & traffic Dep of real estate Private developers Etcetera Citizens Schools Organisations

17. Perceptions become explicit when you visit concrete projects

18. 4. The Importance of History In complex processes history does not fade away

19. Planning like this does not work for complex processes

20. “You have to know the history to understand the present and to shape the future”

21. Golden Age

22. Industrial Revolution

23. Post war restoration

24. Crisis and new beginning

25. 5. Story telling

26. Spatial organisation directs Water Water directs spatial organisation

28. Information Knowledge

29. Story telling Story 2 Story 4 Story 1 Story 3 Story 5 Story 6 Story 7 Story 9 Story 8 Story n Theoretical concept 2 Theoretical concept 3 Theoretical concept 1 Theoretical concept 4 Theoretical concept 5 Specific Generic Narrative

30. A good narrative A story with a head, a tail and a punch line Constructed out of the languages that people used to tell their stories (no scientific or political blabla) It is specific, but also includes generic elements Is recognised by the people that brought in the stories New scientific knowledge is connected to it Decision makers cannot ignore it Often: it includes a metaphor

31. Residential area Lewenborg

35. Story telling Story 2 Story 4 Story 1 Story 3 Story 5 Story 6 Story 7 Story 9 Story 8 Story n Theoretical concept 2 Theoretical concept 3 Theoretical concept 1 Theoretical concept 4 Theoretical concept 5 Specific Generic Narrative about ponds, litter and social safety

36. Conclusions 1. When it is complex, accept that it is complex 2. Real integration is only possible in practice, so act as close to practice as possible and appreciate practitioners 3. Ask people involved specifically about their perceptions (goals, roles, responsibilities, etc.) 4. You have to know the history to understand the present and to shape the future: history will not fade away 5. Listen to stories and connect them to the theoretical concepts: constructing narratives

37. Thanks for your attention …