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Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change Colette L. Heald NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellow University of California, Berkeley (heald@atmos.berkeley.edu) Daven Henze, Larry Horowitz, Johannes Feddema, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Alex Guenther, Peter Hess, Francis Vitt, Allen Goldstein, Inez Fung, John Seinfeld International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics July 9, 2007
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ORGANIC CARBON AEROSOL Semi- Volatiles Oxidation by OH, O 3, NO 3 Direct Emission Fossil Fuel Biomass Burning Monoterpenes Sesquiterpenes Partitioning (non-linear) Aromatics ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCESBIOGENIC SOURCES Isoprene S econdary O rganic A erosol P rimary O rganic A erosol
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WHY WE SHOULDN’T FOCUS EXCLUSIVELY ON SULFATE… Organic carbon aerosol is the green part of the pie globally more than sulfate [Zhang et al., in press] Sulfate Organics
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MODELING FRAMEWORK Community Land Model (CLM3) Datasets: Lawrence and Chase [2007] Feddema et al. [2007] LAI (MODIS) Plant Functional Types Soil moisture Vegetation Temperature BVOC Algorithms [Guenther et al., 1995; 2006] Monterpenes: GEIA Isoprene: MEGAN Community Atmospheric Model (CAM3) Chemistry Transport Radiation BVOC Emissions Vegetation Meteorology Radiation Precipitation SOA production 2-product model from oxidation of: 1. Monoterpenes [Chung and Seinfeld, 2002] 2. Isoprene [Henze and Seinfeld, 2006] 3. Aromatics [Henze et al., 2007] Anthropogenic Emissions, GHG concentrations, SST
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PRESENT-DAY (2000) SOA Isoprene is the largest SOA source in this simulation, and also the longest lived dominates burden
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PRESENT/PROJECTED BIOGENIC EMISSIONS 496 TgC/yr 2100: 607 TgC/yr 43 TgC/yr 2100: 51 TgC/yr 22% increase primarily driven by global temperature increases (1.8°C)
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PRESENT/PROJECTED ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS 45 TgC/yr 16 TgC/yr 2100: A1B: 20 TgC/yr A2: 35 TgC/yr 2100: A1B: 72 TgC/yr A2: 96 TgC/yr Large increases predicted, especially over Asia
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CHANGES IN TOTAL SOA CONCENTRATIONS IN 2100 (A1B) FROM PRESENT-DAY Surface SOA Zonal SOA Δ Anthropogenic Emissions Δ Biogenic Emissions Δ Climate +7% Global Burden +26% +6%
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CHANGES IN SOA CONCENTRATIONS IN 2100 FROM PRESENT-DAY DUE TO LAND-USE CHANGE (A2) SOA (TOTAL) BVOC emissions Feddema et al. [2007] Projections Expansion of croplands (low BVOC emitters) at the expense of broadleaf trees OVERALL SOA BURDEN: -14% Isoprene Monoterpenes
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TOTAL EFFECT OF EMISSIONS & CLIMATE ON SOA Climate and Emission: +36% Anthropogenic Land-use: -14% Natural Vegetation: ?? TOTAL SOA
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SOA SENSITIVITY SIMULATIONS: REGIONAL SOA SOURCES South America is the largest SOA source in present-day but significant growth expected for Asia by 2100 (and may overtake South America as the largest SOA source region under an A2 scenario).
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CHANGES TO SOA PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY SOA production efficiency likely increase in EU and NA due to NOx ↓ but will decrease in urban regions of SH/tropics. 2000 2100-2000 SOA production is less efficient under high NOx conditions. Surface NO/HO 2
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INCREASING SOA: CLIMATE IMPLICATIONS? Present-Day Burden: 0.5-0.7 TgS 1 Projection:↓ by > 50% by 2100? SULFATE SOA 1 [Koch et al., 1999; Barth et al., 2000; Takemura et al., 2000] Present-Day Burden: 0.59 TgC Projection: 36%↑ SOA Burden Andreae et al. [2005] suggest ↓ sulfate will accelerate greenhouse gas warming, but SOA may compensate
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