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Europe-Russia Energy Relations: Security in Diversity? Dr. Andrew Monaghan, Research Consultant, NATO Defence College
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Introduction Russia in European thinking Russia as “the problem” Diversity as the answer? Conclusions European thinking reactive Russia often taken out of context strategically
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Russia in European Thinking Russia is the gravitational focus for European thinking Evolution in thought –Politically unreliable Oct 2005, Jan 2006, Dec/Jan 2007 –Sustainability Gas deficit –Liberal/monopoly Bureaucratic improvement/political deterioration Energy security dilemma
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Russia as “the problem” Energy “Superpower”? –Political idea without a strategy Unclear “national interests” Gazprom strategy ≠ Russian strategy –Incoherence & Competition Gazprom vs. Rosneft; Gazprom vs. State Shady “re-nationalisation” –Gas deficit Domestic consumption/foreign contracts
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Responses Reactive Veto, ECT ratification, diversification NATO Veto, ECT –Cohesion of members –Negotiating against Russia’s “natural advantages”
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Energy Insecurity Responses Diversify? –Already diverse – energy type, source, route –Complicates policy making & consensus To where? –Iran? Nigeria Energy Security Dilemma –Sources & Markets
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Energy Insecurity Responses NATO –January 2006 (USA/Ukraine) –September 2006 Seminar –Riga Summit Strategic Concept Military security: NATO’s energy supply Shortage of other options in answer to perceived threat –EU & IEA not responsive & supportive enough –Bring in US diplomatic weight
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NATO & energy security US & Turkey involvement Political links to the wider world: PfP & ICI, NRC –IPAP: Azerbaijan Military dimension –Infrastructure security –Naval protection –Civil Defence & emergency management
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NATO & Energy Insecurity The “whole chain” BUT: Does not address the key issues: investment Military alliance involvement creates concerns abroad –Political dimension of energy security: confidence A global thematic rather than regional diplomatic role
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Conclusions Energy security is a primarily POLITICAL issue – is enough resource base –Tension between existing and reliable resources Responses so far REACTIVE & undermining energy security –Key responses are domestic – efficiency & investment NATO has a global energy security role, albeit focused & explicitly addressed Consumer, Producer & Transit often the same; NATO understands “the chain”
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