1. African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses Afrikanske Monsun: Multidisiplinære Analyser Afrikaanse Moesson Multidisciplinaire Analyse Analisi Multidisciplinare per il Monsone Africano Afrikanischer Monsun: Multidisziplinäre Analysen  Analisis Multidiciplinar de los Monzones Africanos  Analyses Multidisciplinaires de la Mousson Africaine

2. Variability in the West African Monsoon Matters! Recognising the societal need to develop strategies that reduce the socioeconomic impacts of the variability of the WAM, AMMA will facilitate the multidisciplinary research required to provide improved predictions of the WAM and its impacts.

3. Variability in the WAM impacts the US! Flooding in New Orleans due to Katrina (courtesy NOAA) Bonnie (05) Charlie (05) Frances (05) Ivan (05) courtesy A. Aiyyer

4. The WAM is an ideal natural laboratory for exploring the coupled atmosphere-land-ocean system NDVI image for 21-31 August 2000, from Pathfinder AVHRR, highlighting the marked meridional gradients in surface conditions over tropical North Africa and zonal symmetry.

5. AEJ Cold Tongue SAL ITCZ Heat Low Key features of the West African Monsoon Climate System during Boreal summer The WAM is an ideal natural laboratory for exploring the coupled atmosphere-land-ocean system

6. θ 50 o C θ θe 90 o C θe AEJ 20 o C 60 o C The WAM is an ideal natural laboratory for exploring the coupled atmosphere-land-ocean system

7. Programmatic aspects During past decades, China and India have benefited immensely from collaboration with the developed nations in weather-climate research (e.g., numerical modeling & field experiments) Africa has yet to benefit to a comparable degree: leverage ongoing activities as a framework? International African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) program is such a framework ( West African region) U.S. presence in AMMA mainly: a) DOE-ARM (deployment of a technologically advanced mobile observing system); b) NASA (hurricane genesis measurements downstream in E. Atlantic); IRI (global models)

8. Selected science aspects Africa is an integral part of the Earth’s climate system but has been little studied, poorly understood compared to other regions of the world Africa is one of Earth’s 3 large-scale heat sources, along with Amazonia and the Indonesian ‘Maritime Continent’ Africa’s convective weather systems and precipitation regimes are direly in need of quantification Africa’s monsoon system differs from the Asia-Australia monsoon and from monsoons of the Americas – fundamental in regard to inter-annual issues at the weather-climate interface

9. Key weather systems in the West African and Tropical Atlantic regions An ideal region to study scale interactions in the WAM and tropical cyclogenesis AEWs MCSs SAL TC The WAM is an ideal natural laboratory for exploring the coupled atmosphere-land-ocean system

10. Introduction Overview of AMMA-International US contributions to the AMMA field campaign AMMA-US

11. 1. AMMA International To reach AMMA aims, need to coordinate -Science (Challenge: disciplines, scales) -Implementation (Obs, Model,..) -Data archive and sharing -Funding issues ACMAD AGRYMET African Univ ASECNA CERMES DMN, DHN,, EIER, others... Others in Europe INTEO,... France CATCH White Book AMMA-API UK NERC DABEX DODO Germany IMPETUS VOLTA USA ARM-DOE NOAA NASA Pan-african initiative (PIAF) EU Integrated Project

12. 1. AMMA International (1)To improve our understanding of the WAM and its influence on the physical, chemical & biological environment regionally and globally. (2) To provide the underpinning science that relates variability of the WAM to issues of health, water resources, food security & demography for West African nations and defining and implementing relevant monitoring & prediction strategies. (3) To ensure that the multidisciplinary research carried out in AMMA is effectively integrated with prediction & decision making activity. AIMS

13. Aerosols Chemistry Monsoon Dynamics IMPACTS Water Resources Public Health Food security Multi-disciplinary research Socio-Economy Decision Makers Early Warning Systems, Advice, … WEATHER & CLIMATE PREDICTION & ITS IMPACTS Medium Range Seasonal-Interannual Decadal Climate Change Models & Observations

14. ISSC IGB Produces the Science & Implementation Plans Endorses the Science & Implementation Plans Links with International Programmes (WCRP, IGBP, THORPEX,..) ST4 Capacity building & training WG1 WG2 WG3 WG4 WG5 WAM & global climate ( incl aerosol/chemistry Water cycle Land surface-atmosphere- ocean feedbacks Prediction of climate impacts High impact weather prediction Integrative Science PO TT1 Radio soundings TT2a Surface Layer TT3 Gourma site TT4 Niamey site TT5 Ouémé site TT6 Oceaic campaigns TT7 SOP-Dry season TT8 SOP-Monsoon season TT9SOP-Downstream ST2 incl AOC ST3 Database ST1 EOP/LOP Obs implementation ICIGTT2b Aerosol & Radiation AMMA National & Pan Scientific Committees ARM

15. International Scientific Steering Committee Membership: Ernest Afiesimama, Abel Afouda, Abou Amani, Anton Beljaars, Bernard Bourles, Arona Diedhiou, Andreas Fink, Amadou Gaye, Jim Haywood, Paul Houser, Peter Lamb, Thierry Lebel, Bob Molinari, Doug Parker, Jan Polcher, Joe Prospero, Claire Reeves, Madeline Thomson Co-Chairs: Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Chris Thorncroft ISSC responsible for: Formulation of well defined scientific objectives and a coherent program, to address the three overarching aims (see International Science Plan) To coordinate integrative work through the establishment of the 5 international WGs

16. WG1: West African Monsoon and Global Climate This WG is concerned with the 2-way interactions between the West African Monsoon & the rest of the globe. Research areas under this theme include: (i) Variability and predictability of the WAM (nature and role of teleconnections, intraseasonal variability including easterly waves, predictability issues and the role of the ocean, detection of global change), (ii) Monsoon processes (e.g. scale interactions, the seasonal cycle and monsoon onset), (iii) Global impacts of the WAM (e.g. on tropical cyclones, aerosol variability, atmospheric chemistry). n.b. includes aerosol-chemistry, modeling strategy evolving Co-chairs: Arona Diedhiou (IRD, Niger), Serge Janicot (LOCEAN, France) Peter Lamb (Univ. Oklahoma, US)

17. WG1: West African Monsoon and Global Climate Observed and modeled rainfall (with labels for onset and retreat) for Niamey based on area-average of 50 gauges and model simulated rainfall ( Lebel et al, 2000). Time series (1941-2001) of average normalized April- October rainfall departure for 20 stations in the West African Soudano-Sahel zone (11-18N and West of 10E); following methodology of Lamb and Peppler, 1992).

18. WG1: West African Monsoon and Global Climate Dominant pattern of precipitation error associated with dominant pattern of SST prediction error based on persistent SST anomalies (Goddard & Mason,Climate Dynamics, 2002) Coupled model systematic error in equatorial SST simulation – note systematic error in east-west gradient in the tropical Atlantic

19. WG2: Water Cycle Co-leaders: Amadou Gaye (Univ. Dakar, Senegal), Paul Houser (George Mason, US), Jean-Luc Redelsperger (CNRM, France), France) The efficiency of the processes controlling the advection of atmospheric moisture, its transformation into precipitation, and the behaviour of rain water over land (e.g. run- off, infiltration etc), is a crucial aspect of the WAM. Analysis & understanding of the water cycle at regional-scale, mesoscale and local scale will be carried out in the WG. Downscaling issues for impact studies are key.

20. Global SST Teleconnections Mesoscale Convective Systems Convective Cells Monsoon System Easterly waves GG SST Variability Global Mesoscale Regional Local YearSeasonDay Hour Major River Basins Catchments Vegetation Pools Vegetation 10 4 km 10 3 km 10 2 km 10 1 km SOP EOP LOP SATELLITESSATELLITES OBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONS M O D E L L I N G / F O R E C A S T S A multiscale approach Downscaling for impact studies Scale Interactions Water vapor transport Trace gaz, Aerosols, etc

21. WG3a: Land-surface-atmosphere feedbacks To provide increased knowledge & understanding of the feedbacks between the continental surface & the atmosphere  to bring together the various process studies (land and atmosphere) in order to better understand the coupling at regional and mesoscale Co-leaders: Jan Polcher (LMD, France); Chris Taylor (CEH, UK)

22. WG3a: Land-surface-atmosphere feedbacks Koster et al, 2004

23. WG3b: Ocean-surface-atmosphere feedbacks To provide increased knowledge & understanding of the feedbacks between the ocean surface & the atmosphere  to bring together the various process studies (ocean and atmosphere) in order to better understand the coupling at regional scales Leader: Bernard Bourles et al

24. WG4: Prediction of climate impacts Co-leaders: Abou Amani (AGHRYMET, Niger), Andy Morse (Univ. Liverpool, UK), Madeleine Thompson (IRI, US) (IRI, US) One of the 3 major aims of AMMA: To provide the underpinning science that relates climate variability to issues of health, water resources, food security & demography for West African nations and defining relevant monitoring and prediction strategies. AMMA will ensure strong linkages between the work taking place on impacts and that taking place on observed variability and predictability of the WAM.

25. Semaine du maximum du cycle saisonnier (hiver) (Position du FIT la plus basse en latitude) Semaine de démarrage de l’épidémie January Prediction  Alert Systems Example: Meningitis epidemics in Mali WG4: Prediction of climate impacts

26. WG5: High impact weather prediction and predictability To improve our knowledge & understanding of high impact weather over Africa, including its impact on the tropical Atlantic and Europe. Key timescale of interest is 1-15 days CORE Membership: E. Afiesimama (NIMET), S. Jones (Un. Karlsuhe, Ger), D. Parsons (NCAR, US), F.Rabier (Meteo-France),C. Thorncroft (SUNY, US), Z. Toth (NCEP), US) Can we predict dry/wet spells 15-days in advance? Do such dry spells influence downstream tropical cyclone activity?

27. WG5: High impact weather prediction and predictability Major Ongoing Activities: Tailoring and evaluation of forecast products for users in tropical regions e.g. dry run 22 nd August – 2 nd September 2005; SOP 2006 Impact of additional observations ECMWF, Meteo-France, NCEP, NRL, UK Met Office and others Targeting in tropical regions e.g. especially associated with driftsonde

28. International Coordination & Implementation Group Co-chairs: Thierry Lebel (IRD-Niger) & Doug Parker (Un Leeds UK) ICIG is responsible for implementation of the AMMA field program

29. 10 years of observation and research 10 3 E Enhanced Period (EOP) Long term Observations (LOP) 2002 WA +Ocean Meso Regional Local 2005 2006 2007 2008 10 3 1 2 4 0 DRY 0 WET S O P SOP0_a3 ?

30. EOP Maps AMMA … TamanrassetTamanrasset Sal Khartoum EGEE Cruises From the continental to the local scaleNiamey Ron Brown Cruises and Meteor

32. International Governing Board (IGB) Co-Chairs: Eric Brun (Meteo-France) and Alan Thorpe (NERC) Membership: G. Amanatidis (EU), J. Boulegue (IRD), W. Ferrel (DOE), A. Guiteye(Director Operational Dept ASECNA), J. Kaye (NASA), A. Kignaman-Soro (ACMAD/D & Representative PIREM), J. Laver (NOAA-NCEP), A. Ndiaye (WMO), N. Papineau (INSU & CNRS) To approve the structure and implementation of AMMA particularly with respect to the necessary financial and technical support. To identify and mobilize national & international resources to support AMMA activities. The first meeting took place on December 20 via video-conference

33. Support Teams AMMA International has also established a number of support teams for the project. Three of these are concerned with the field program and the data center. The fourth (ST4) is concerned with “Capacity Building and Training”. There are a number of efforts going forward under the auspices of ST4 that require coordination (coordination is currently weak). This includes some support from IRD (France), a GEF proposal in West Africa, and calls for proposals from DFID (UK). There is an urgent need for stronger coordination of the various activities. The first meeting took place on December 20 via video-conference

34. International AMMA Webpages International AMMA webpages have been developed to aid communication http://www.amma-international.org Unique entrance to all AMMA sites

35. AMMA is definitively International Endorsed by Major International Programmes More than 500 Researchers from around 30 countries in Africa, Europe & USA Algeria, Belgium, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cap Verde, Chad, Congo, Denmark, France, Germany, Ghana, Italy, Ivory Coast, Mali, Morocco, Netherlands, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Spain, Togo, UK, US Collaboration with other international Programmes as: WMO

36. Founding Agencies Regional African Centers Agencies supporting AMMA With the participation of University of Cologne, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft-und Raumfharte, University of Leeds, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, University of Copenhagen, MEDIAS-France, University of Burgundy, Université Paris 12 - Val de Marne, Université Paul Sabatier, Centre de coopération Internationale gen Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, University of Bremen, Forschunggszentrum Kalsruhe, Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften, Ludwig-Maximilianns-Universitaet Muenchen, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms- Universität Bonn, Univerrsity of East Anglia, University of Liverpool, University of York, University of Leicester, University of Manchester, Chancellor, Masters and Scholars of University of Cambridge, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Enea per Nuove Technologie, l'Energia e l'Ambiente, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche -Institute of Biometeorology, Universita' di Perugia, Universidad de Castilla- La Mancha, Universitad Complutense de Madrid, Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, Université catholique de Louvain, European Ceeentre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Centre Régional AGRHYMET, Centre de Reecherche Médicale et Sanitaire, Ecole Inter-Etats d'Ingénieurs de l'Equipement JRural, African Centre of Meteorological Application for development, Vaisala OYJ, Ocean Scientific International Ltd, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Agence pour la Sécurité de la Navigation Aérienne en Afrique et Madagascar, Kalsrhue University, Universite d Abomey- Calavi, Universite de Dakar, Universite de Niamey, Directions de la Meteorologie et de l Hydrologie du Benin, Burkina Faso, Cote dÍvoire, Ghana, Guinee, Mali, Niger, Senegal, Togo

37. AMMA-US: Background An AMMA-US proposal was prepared in December 2003 (see AMMA-US website) Due to lack of funding the original AMMA-US proposal could not be funded as one; individual proposals were prepared to address various parts of the program. Some of these as well as additional proposals have been successful, resulting in a significant US contribution to AMMA field program.

38. Surface-based research radars Climate Transect NASA-AMMA Targeted Missions with DC-8, + Ground-based obs. (N-Pol + TOGA radars, soundings) SALEX: NOAA P3 and G-IV Targeted Missions and Dropsonde flights with G-IV ARM mobile facility (DOE) MIT-radar (NASA) Surface obs. – malaria studies (NOAA) Driftsonde/THORPEX (NCAR/NSF/NOAA + CNES, France) Ronald H. Brown Cruises + ship-based obs (NOAA), supported by multi-year sustained obs (see next slide) US contributions to AMMA field program in 06 US-GCOS: Hydrogen generator at Dakar ZEUS lightning detection network

39. Long-term observations in the tropical Atlantic

40. AMMA-US: Rationale and aims of workshop It is estimated that in terms of field observations alone in 2006, the US is contributing ~$14M!!!!!. BUT there is a lack of support for analysis of this data! There are other significant US contributions to AMMA activities including in particular: NCEP (e.g. forecast support including training via Africa Desk, real-time data impact studies) GLOBE Individual PIs (funded through normal routes)

41. AMMA-US: Coordination As a result of a recent workshop a structure is being created to coordinate US contributions to AMMA. This structure mirrors as much as possible the international Working Group structure. We are establishing the following 3 working groups: WG1 West African Monsoon and Global Climate: Kerry Cook, Pete Lamb, Bob Molinari WG2 Water Cycle: Paul Houser WG3 Surface-atmosphere feedbacks: Fatih Eltahir (land), Erica Key (ocean) The US also has important contributions to international WG4 (e.g. IRI) and WG5 (e.g. NAMMA, and individual PIs and groups working on prediction and predictability issues including NCEP, NRL, Univ. Miami).