1. The Orientation step of the OODA loop and Information Warfare Lachlan Brumley, Carlo Kopp and Kevin Korb Clayton School of Information Technology, Monash University, Australia Email: lbrumley@csse.monash.edu.au, carlo@csse.monash.edu.au, korb@csse.monash.edu.au

2. Overview ● Boyd's OODA loop model ● Expanded model of the Orientation step ● Information Warfare and Orientation ● Case studies of Deception and Self- deception

3. Boyd’s OODA loop model ● Name originates from the loop’s steps ○ Observation ○ Orientation ○ Decision ○ Action ● Describes the decision-making process of an individual or organisation ● Models a feedback loop between the decision-maker and their environment

4. World Perceived Model of the world Gathered Information Orientation Decision Observation Actions Performed Actions Boyd's OODA loop model

5. Orientation step Contains a method that combines ● New information ● Previous experience ● Cultural traditions ● Genetic heritage ● Analysis and synthesis methods to produce an updated model of the world.

6. Orientation step However there is no description of how this process operates We now describe a model of the internal processes of the Orientation step

7. Proposed Orientation Step Actions ● Recognise known objects, events and relationships ● Analyse new information with known processing methods ● Evaluate the completion of aims and develop new aims ● Determine what actions may be performed how they will affect the world

8. OODA loop with expanded Orientation step ● Observation ● Orientation ○ Identification ○ Interpretation ○ Aims Derivation ○ Options Generation ● Decision ● Action

9. Gathered Information Performed Actions Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Expanded Orientation step

10. Gathered Information Performed Actions Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Expanded Orientation step

11. Gathered Information Performed Actions Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Expanded Orientation step

12. Gathered Information Performed Actions Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Expanded Orientation step

13. Gathered Information Performed Actions Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Expanded Orientation step

14. Gathered Information Performed Actions Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Expanded Orientation step

15. Gathered Information Performed Actions Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Expanded Orientation step

16. IW attacks that affect Orientation Deception ● Deception attacks provide false information that is accepted as true, before being used as input to decision-making Self-deception ● Self-deception occurs when an individual believes something to be true, despite evidence that disproves it

17. Gathered Information (Corrupt) Performed Actions Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Deception Attack

18. Gathered Information (Corrupt) Performed Actions Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Deception Attack

19. Gathered Information (Corrupt) Performed Actions Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Deception Attack

20. Gathered Information (Corrupt) Performed Actions Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Deception Attack

21. Gathered Information (Corrupt) Performed Actions Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Deception Attack

22. Gathered Information (Corrupt) Performed Actions Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Deception Attack

23. Gathered Information (Corrupt) Performed Actions Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Deception Attack

24. Self-deception ● The word Self-deception suggests that it is a reflexive deception ● Self-deception is defined as an intentional misinterpretation in order to support a desired but unsupportable belief (Szabados 1974)

25. Performed Actions Gathered Information Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Self-deception

26. Performed Actions Gathered Information Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Self-deception

27. Performed Actions Gathered Information Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Self-deception

28. Performed Actions Gathered Information Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Self-deception

29. Performed Actions Gathered Information Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Self-deception

30. Performed Actions Gathered Information Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Self-deception

31. Performed Actions Gathered Information Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Self-deception

32. Examples ● Demonstrate where deception and self- deception cause errors in the Orientation step of the OODA loop ● Deception – Operation Fortitude ● Self-deception – Challenger Disaster

33. Operation Fortitude ● Deception plan for the D-Day landings during World War II ● Deceived the Germans as to the target of the invasion and the time of the invasion

34. Gathered Information (Corrupt) Performed Actions Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Operation Fortitude German Intelligence agencies correctly perceive information from various sources (Radio intercepts, aerial photo- reconnaissance, spies).

35. Gathered Information (Corrupt) Performed Actions Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Operation Fortitude German Intelligence agencies incorrectly identify the corrupt signals as those of a real army, that intends to invade at Calais.

36. Gathered Information (Corrupt) Performed Actions Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Operation Fortitude German Intelligence agencies Interpret that the main target of the Allied invasion will be Calais.

37. Gathered Information (Corrupt) Performed Actions Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Operation Fortitude Germany updates its Aims to include defending Calais from the expected Allied invasion.

38. Gathered Information (Corrupt) Performed Actions Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Operation Fortitude Germany determines it has the option to reinforce the defenses at Calais, which it believes will defeat the invasion.

39. Gathered Information (Corrupt) Performed Actions Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Operation Fortitude Germany decides it will to move its troops to reinforce Calais, to defeat the expected Allied invasion.

40. Gathered Information (Corrupt) Performed Actions Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Operation Fortitude Germany reinforces Calais, in expectation of an Allied invasion.

41. Challenger Disaster ● The space shuttle Challenger disintegrated shortly after takeoff due to an O-ring failure, caused by the low temperature at the time of the launch ● The self-deception in this disaster was performed by Morton Thiokol management ● They were warned that the O-rings were damaged more during low temperature launches, however they misinterpreted the damage as proof of a safety factor

42. Performed Actions Gathered Information Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Challenger Disaster Managers correctly perceive warnings from engineers about O-rings.

43. Performed Actions Gathered Information Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Challenger Disaster Morton Thiokol’s managers correctly Identify the damage to the O-rings.

44. Performed Actions Gathered Information Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Challenger Disaster Morton Thiokol’s managers intentionally misinterpret damage to the O-rings as proof of their safety. This is self- deception.

45. Performed Actions Gathered Information Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Challenger Disaster Morton Thiokol’s managers Aim to approve the launch if it is safe. Since they misinterpreted the warnings about the O-rings, they believe it is safe.

46. Performed Actions Gathered Information Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Challenger Disaster Morton Thiokol’s managers determine that their available Options are to approve or forbid the launch. They expect the outcomes to be a successful launch or an unhappy customer.

47. Performed Actions Gathered Information Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Challenger Disaster Morton Thiokol’s managers now Decide to approve the launch of the shuttle.

48. Performed Actions Gathered Information Identification Interpretation Aims Derivation Options Generation Orientation Decision Action Observation Perceived model of the world Challenger Disaster Morton Thiokol’s managers give NASA approval to launch Challenger.

49. Conclusion ● Orientation step details the updating of the decision-maker's model of the world and as such is a target for IW attacks ● Described a model of the internal processes of the Orientation step ● Difference between Deception and Self- deception

50. Questions?