1. 16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, 2004 1 Numerical Modeling of Mountain Pine Beetle Transport by the Wind Peter L. Jackson Brendan Murphy Benjamin Burkholder UNBC Environmental Science & Engineering With assistance from: Melissa Darney, Brenda Moore, Vera Lindsay Funded by: NRCan/CFS Mountain Pine Beetle Initiative

2. 16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, 2004 2 Photo credits (clockwise from top): a) http://www.ecoforestry.ca/jrnl_artilces/images/17-1-Partridge-Reuters.jpghttp://www.ecoforestry.ca/jrnl_artilces/images/17-1-Partridge-Reuters.jpg b&c) http://www.sparwood.bc.ca/forest/untreated.htm d) http://www.pfc.forestry.ca/entomology/mpb/management/ silviculture/images/valley_lrg.jpghttp://www.sparwood.bc.ca/forest/untreated.htmhttp://www.pfc.forestry.ca/entomology/mpb/management/ silviculture/images/valley_lrg.jpg a) c) b) d)

3. 16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, 2004 3 Introduction / Motivation MBP infestation has reached epidemic proportions in central BC affecting 4.2 million ha and 176 million m 3 of timber Emergence and flight in summer after 3 days of Tmax > 18 ºC but < 30°C Peak emergence for successful mass-attack occurs when Tmax > 25 ºC

4. 16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, 2004 4 Dispersion is –active by flight over short distances / light wind (local scale: within stand over a few km) –passive advection due to winds and turbulence above and within canopy (landscape scale: between stands perhaps 10-100 km) Passive transport allows epidemic to spread rapidly over great distances  little is known about passive transport and this is the focus of our work

5. 16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, 2004 5 MPB Spread in BC animation based on annual aerial survey of MPB “reds” (last year’s attack)

6. 16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, 2004 6 MPB Spread in BC eastward movement of the “front” spread of MPB limited by the -40 ºC annual minimum isotherm climate chg moves -40 ºC northeastward concern over MPB crossing the Rocky Mountains

7. 16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, 2004 7 Objectives 1.Identify synoptic weather patterns present during periods of MPB dispersal (P1.12 by Murphy and Jackson) 2.Identify fundamental relationships between terrain features, atmospheric flows and MPB fallout zones (P1.7 by Moore and Jackson) 3.Assess potential for physics-based meteorological and dispersion models to estimate MPB dispersal from one year to the next

8. 16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, 2004 8 Methods Passive transport of MPB is similar to transport and dispersion of air pollutants CSU Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to simulate the atmosphere (wind, temperature, humidity, pressure, etc. on a nested 3D grid) The meteorological fields from RAMS will be used to calculate trajectories

9. 16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, 2004 9 Evolution of HC2 composite 500 hPa and Lifted Index (shaded) based on NCEP Reanalysis data as upper ridge passes atmosphere becomes moderately unstable (Lifted index negative) resulting in “thermals” composite 2002

10. 16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, 2004 10 Hasler Bear Lake Prince George

11. 16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, 2004 11 Hourly output from RAMS simulation at model level 2 (~40 m AGL), from grid 4 at 3 km horizontal resolution (only every 2 nd wind vector shown) Hasler Bear Lake Prince George

12. 16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, 2004 12 Time-height cross section modelled wind and temperature from MacKenzie (west of the Rockies) modelled wind and temperature from Chetwynd (east of the Rockies)

13. 16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, 2004 13 Bear Lake – BCMF weather station N of Prince George, W of Rockies Plaza 400 – BCMWLAP weather station in Prince George Hasler – BCMWLAP weather station NE of Rockies

14. 16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, 2004 14 Back Trajectories ending at 00Z 24 July 2002 (17:00 PDT) 105m 1100m

15. 16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, 2004 15 Conclusions & Future Work RAMS seems capable of representing the conditions during MPB emergence and flight Two approaches to future atmospheric modelling: 1.Continue simulation and validation of case studies to predict where beetles go from one year to the next. To be used in real time for planning beetle control strategies. 2.Ensemble trajectories created for each grid point in the landscape, based on a runs of a large number of past peak emergence heating cycle events. To be used as input to beetle spread scenario planning models that are primarily for forest managers to assess the impact of silvicultural and management practice.

16. 16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, 2004 16 Information Needs Need beetle validation / initialization data: –More documented MPB flight / emergence periods, ideally at daily resolution –More “case studies” of between stand movement for validation (especially isolated populations) –MPB time in flight, height of flight – how many fly above the canopy? – Prince George Doppler Radar holds intriguing promise…

17. 16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, 2004 17 July 14-15, 2004 Peak emergence event

18. 16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, 2004 18 Doppler radar image “clear air” returns are some type of insect  timing of appearance is consistent with peak emergence of MPB 0.5 degree PPI radar scan from 00Z 15 July 2004 (1700 PDT 14 July 2004) Reflectivity < 0 DBZ Echo tops 800 – 1500 m AGL

19. 16 th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology Vancouver, B.C., August 25, 2004 19 The End