1. NPOESS Entering a New Era National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System Delivering Global Data for Improved Numerical Weather Prediction AMS Symposium on the 50 th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction John D. Cunningham System Program Director College Park, Maryland 14-17 June 2004

2. 2 NPOESS Program Overview John D. Cunningham Mission Provide a national, operational, polar-orbiting remote-sensing capability Provide a national, operational, polar-orbiting remote-sensing capability Achieve National Performance Review (NPR) savings by converging DoD and NOAA satellite programs Achieve National Performance Review (NPR) savings by converging DoD and NOAA satellite programs Incorporate new technologies from NASA Incorporate new technologies from NASA Encourage International Cooperation Encourage International Cooperation Saves as much as $1.3B from the cost of previously planned separate developments METOP NPOESS Specialized Satellites Local Equatorial Crossing Time 1730 1330 2130 NPOESS Tri-agency Effort to Leverage and Combine Environmental Satellite Activities

3. 3 NPOESS Program Overview John D. Cunningham The “Challenge” of Meteorological Satellite Convergence Eight major “Convergence Studies” (1972-1991) Examined consolidation of –DoD’s Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) –DOC’s Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) Program Primarily motivated by budget reduction/cost savings pressures Studies resulted in retaining two separate programs Deemed “highly complementary”; however Remained separate primarily due to over-riding policy issues Similar spacecraft with many common components and subsystems Some measure of modest coordination/cost-savings achieved Policy and programmatic benefits of two separate systems outweighed projected cost savings and advantages Achievement of significant cost savings while still satisfying Achievement of significant cost savings while still satisfying civil and military mission requirements now a driving priority Achievement of significant cost savings while still satisfying Achievement of significant cost savings while still satisfying civil and military mission requirements now a driving priority

4. 4 NPOESS Program Overview John D. Cunningham DMSP (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program) EOS (Earth Observing System) NPOESS (National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System) Sensor data rate: 1.5 Mbps Data latency: 100-150 min. 1.7 GigaBytes per day (DMSP) 6.3 GigaBytes per day (POES) 15 Mbps sensor data rate Data latency: 100-180 min. Data availability: 98% Ground revisit time: 12 hrs. 2.6 TeraBytes per day (EOS) 2.4 TeraBytes per day (NPP) 20 Mbps sensor data rate Data latency: 28 min. Data availability: 99.98% Autonomous capability: 60 days Selective encryption/deniability Ground revisit time: 4-6 hrs. 8.1 TeraBytes per day Evolutionary Roadmap POES (Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites) NPP (NPOESS Preparatory Project) 1960 - 2010 2000 - 20102010 – 2020+ NPOESS Satisfies Evolutionary Program Needs with Enhanced Capabilities

5. 5 NPOESS Program Overview John D. Cunningham Building A More Capable System The Historical Context First Image from TIROS-1EOS-Aqua MODIS Image-250 m Saharan Dust off the Canary Islands 18 February 2004

6. 6 NPOESS Program Overview John D. Cunningham NPOESS Requirements Integrated Operational Requirements Document (IORD-I) 59 Data Products 9 Enhancement Products 1 System Characteristic KPP Validated by JARC 1996 IORD-II 55 Data Products 21 Enhancement Products 2 System Characteristic KPPs Validated by JARC Dec 2001 Convergence of Alternatives Convergence of Requirements Converged Requirements Provide Foundation for Combined Program Converged Requirements Provide Foundation for Combined Program

7. 7 NPOESS Program Overview John D. Cunningham Atmospheric Vertical Temperature Profile Highly accurate measurement of the vertical distribution of temperature in the atmosphere in layers from the surface to 0.01 mb Major Applications 1)Initialization of Numerical Weather Prediction Models 2)Complementary data for derivation of moisture/pressure profiles and cloud properties Integrated Operational Requirements Document (IORD) Example Iterative, Disciplined Requirements Process Ensures Users Needs are Met Iterative, Disciplined Requirements Process Ensures Users Needs are Met

8. 8 NPOESS Program Overview John D. Cunningham NPOESS EDR-to-Sensor Mapping Precipitation Type/Rate Sea SFC Height/TOPO Solar Irradiance Supra-Therm-Aurora Prop Surface Type Suspended Matter Total Water Content Vegetative Index Surface Wind Stress Snow Cover/Depth Cloud Top Pressure Cloud Top Temperature Down LW Radiance (Sfc) Down SW Radiance (Sfc) Electric Fields Energetic Ions Geomagnetic Field In-situ Plasma Fluctuation In-situ Plasma Temp Med Energy Chgd Parts Net Solar Radiation (TOA) Neutral Density Profile Ocean Color/Chlorophyll Ocean Wave Character Outgoing LW Rad (TOA) O 3 – Total Column Profile Electron Density Profile Ionospheric Scintillation Ice Surface Temperature Land Surface Temp Net Heat Flux Imagery Sea Surface Winds Aerosol Refractive Index Albedo (Surface) Auroral Boundary Auroral Energy Deposition Auroral Imagery Cloud Cover/Layers Cloud Effective Part Size Cloud Ice Water Path Cloud Liquid Water Cloud Optical Thickness Cloud Particle Size/Distrib Cloud Top Height Atm Vert Moist Profile Atm Vert Temp Profile Sea Surface Temperature Cloud Base Height VIIRS (24) CMIS (19) CrIS/ATMS (3) SES (13) OMPS (1) TSIS (1) ERBS (5) ALT (3) APS (4) LEGEND - Key Performance Parameters Precipitable Water Soil Moisture Aerosol Optical Thickness Aerosol Particle Size Pressure (Surface/Profile) Sea Ice Characterization Active Fires (Application product)

9. 9 NPOESS Program Overview John D. Cunningham NPOESS Enhancement Products (Pre-Planned Product Improvement – P3I) 1.Tropospheric Winds 2.CH4 Column 3.CO Column 4.CO2 Column 5.Optical Background 6.All Weather Day/Night Imagery 7.Sea and Lake Ice 8.Littoral Currents 9.Coastal Ocean Color 10.Bioluminescence Potential 11.Coastal Sea Surface Temperature 12.Coastal Sea Surface Winds 13.Coastal Sea Surface Height 14.Coastal Imagery 15.Ocean Wave Characteristics 16.Surf Conditions 17.Bathymetry (Deep Ocean & Near Shore) 18.Salinity 19.Oil Spill Location 20.Vertical Hydrometer Profile 21.Neutral Wind

10. 10 NPOESS Program Overview John D. Cunningham Program Schedule 2002A&O Contract Award 2003NPP Delta Critical Design Review 2005NPOESS  Preliminary Design Review 2006NPOESS Critical Design Review NPP Ground Readiness 2006NPP Launch 2009NPOESS Ground Readiness 2009NPOESS C1 Launch 2011 NPOESS C2 Launch Field Terminal Segment Readiness Initial Operational Capability 2013NPOESS C3 Launch 2015NPOESS C4 Launch 2017NPOESS C5 Launch 2019 End of Program Reliable and timely collection, delivery, and processing of quality environmental data

11. 11 NPOESS Program Overview John D. Cunningham NPOESS Operational Concept 1. Sense Phenomena 2. Downlink Raw Data 3. Transport Data to Centrals for Processing Monitor and Control Satellites and Ground Elements 4. Process Raw data into EDRs and Deliver to Centrals Full Capability at each Central TOBSTOBS LATMLATM LCLLCL FO G LRNLRN T AT M T SK Y eijeij Field Terminals SafetyNet Receptors Global fiber network connects 15 receptors to Centrals MMC (Suitland) Schriever MMC NESDIS/NCEP AFWA FNMOC NAVO

12. 12 NPOESS Program Overview John D. Cunningham NPOESS Top Level Architecture Data Latency SMD HRD/LRD Data Availability Operational Availability Threshold Objective 128 attributes above, 724 at, 7 below threshold 305 attributes above, 180 at, 0 below threshold Data Quality SMD/HRD LRD Space Segment Command & Control Segment NPP (1030) NPOESS 1330 NPOESS 1730 NPOESS 2130 Mission Management Center (MMC) at Suitland Alternate MMC at Schriever AFB Interface Data Processing Segment 15 Globally Distributed Receptor Sites Field Terminal Segment FNMOC NAVOCEANOAFWANESDIS/NCEP GPS Low Rate Data/ High Rate Data (LRD/HRD) NPP Science Data Segment CLASSADS NPP Data & Control Flow NPOESS Data & Control Flow CLASS ADS NOAA Comprehensive Large Array Data Stewardship System NPP Archive & Distribution Seg Svalbard

13. 13 NPOESS Program Overview John D. Cunningham NPOESS Satellite CMIS VIIRS CrIS ATMS ERBS OMPS NPOESS 1330 Configuration Single Satellite Design with Common Sensor Locations Single Satellite Design with Common Sensor Locations 1330 17302130 VIIRSXXX CMISXXX CrISXX ATMSXX SESSX OMPSX ADCSXX SARSATXXX ERBSX SSXXX ALTX TSISX APSX

14. 14 NPOESS Program Overview John D. Cunningham SafetyNet – The Key to Low Data Latency and High Data Availability SafetyNet -- 15 globally distributed SMD receptors linked to the centrals via commercial fiber -- enables low data latency and high data availability 75% of NPOESS Data Products at the Nation’s Weather Centrals within 15 min........the rest in under 30 min

15. 15 NPOESS Program Overview John D. Cunningham Average Data Latency Latency (minutes)

16. 16 NPOESS Program Overview John D. Cunningham Mission Data Flow Timely, Accurate, Reliable Data from Sensors to Users

17. 17 NPOESS Program Overview John D. Cunningham Interface Data Processing Segment (IDPS) Functional Diagram Data Delivery Subsystem Data Formatting Production Scheduling and Control Infrastructure Subsystem Data Management Subsystem On-Line Data Storage Processing Subsystem SDR/TDR Generation EDR Generation Ingest Subsystem Sensor Data Ancillary Data Auxiliary Data Cal/Val Subsystem Data Quality Monitoring Central Systems Long Term Archive Science Data Segment Command, Control, and Communications Segment Stored Mission Data Raw Data Records Data Records Sensor/Temp Data Records Raw Data Records Environmental Data Records Formatted Data Products IDP Operator CVS Operator Formatted Data Products

18. 18 NPOESS Program Overview John D. Cunningham High performance IBM computing hardware Each Central has a complete system (IDP) that will generate all products within required latencies Each IDPS or Central contains an Operations string, an Integration and Test (I&T) string, and shared disk arrays (RAID) Operations string carries 100% reserve capacity and additional availability processors I&T string can be used for integration and test of new software, support for technology insertion, parallel operations, failover, and algorithm development Modular, workflow-managed software Receives multiple data streams from C3S, processes data into RDRs, SDRs, TDRs, and EDRs, packages products into form useful for Centrals, and delivers requested products to end users Centrals have control over what products are created, which ancillary data sets are used, and how products are delivered Same software is used in field terminals Will be made available worldwide via download from the internet Interface Data Processing Segment Approach

19. 19 NPOESS Program Overview John D. Cunningham NPOESS EDR Processing Timeline Requirement: 95% of data delivered within 28 min. Capability: Delivering in 24.1 minutes Requirement: 95% of data delivered within 28 min. Capability: Delivering in 24.1 minutes Requirement: >77% of data delivered within 15 min. Capability: Delivering 80.3% Requirement: >77% of data delivered within 15 min. Capability: Delivering 80.3% Average < 10 min Earliest Data Delivered < 3 min

20. 20 NPOESS Program Overview John D. Cunningham Comprehensive Risk Reduction Validate technological approach to remote sensing Early delivery of NPOESS data to users Sensor demonstrations on non-operational platforms Lower risk to operational users Lower risk of launch delays due to operational schedule Share cost & risk among agencies Proteus SOLSE LORE WindSat NASA ER2 / NAST

21. 21 NPOESS Program Overview John D. Cunningham NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) Joint IPO-NASA Risk Reduction Demo NPP Spacecraft contract awarded to Ball Aerospace – May 2002 Instrument Risk Reduction – 2006 Launch Early delivery / instrument-level test / system-level integration and test VIIRS - Vis/IR Imager Radiometer Suite (IPO) VIIRS - Vis/IR Imager Radiometer Suite (IPO) CrIS - Cross-track IR Sounder (IPO) CrIS - Cross-track IR Sounder (IPO) ATMS - Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (NASA) ATMS - Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (NASA) OMPS – Ozone Mapping and Profile Suite (IPO) OMPS – Ozone Mapping and Profile Suite (IPO) Provides lessons learned and allows time for any required modifications before NPOESS first launch Ground System Risk Reduction Early delivery and test of a subset of NPOESS-like ground system elements Early User Evaluation of NPOESS data products Provides algorithms / instrument verification and opportunities for instrument calibration / validation prior to first NPOESS launch Allows for algorithm modification prior to first NPOESS launch Continuity of data for NASA’s EOS Terra/Aqua/Aura missions

22. 22 NPOESS Program Overview John D. Cunningham Real-Time Operational Demonstrations NPP (2006) CrIS/ATMS VIIRS OMPS Aqua (2002) AIRS/AMSU/HSB & MODIS METOP (2005) IASI/AMSU/MHS & AVHRR NPOESS (2009) CrIS/ATMS, VIIRS, CMIS, OMPS & ERBS Coriolis WindSat (2003) NWS/NCEP GSFC/DAO ECMWF UKMO FNMOC Meteo-France BMRC-Australia Met Serv Canada NWS/NCEP GSFC/DAO ECMWF UKMO FNMOC Meteo-France BMRC-Australia Met Serv Canada NWP Forecasts NWP Forecasts NOAA Real-Time Data Delivery Timeline Ground Station Scenario NOAA Real-time User C3S IDPS Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation Use of Advanced Sounder Data for Improved Weather Forecasting/Numerical Weather Prediction

23. 23 NPOESS Program Overview John D. Cunningham Current Satellite Data Support for Numerical Weather Prediction Over 97% of the data ingested into the data assimilation system is derived from satellite data (LEO, GEO, operational, and experimental )...Dr. Louis Uccellini, Director, NCEP, 2003 POES provides 86% of satellite data for NCEP prediction models [Worldwide forecast models mostly use satellite sounding data which is primary mission of POES and secondary on DSMP] … Dr. Stephen Lord, Director, EMC/NCEP –ATOVS temperature super-obs produced the largest reduction in 72h forecast error of any observation type Early study results indicate advanced sounders with capabilities similar to those being developed for NPOESS (e.g., CrIS and ATMS) indicate measurable positive impact on model accuracy - European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts

24. 24 NPOESS Program Overview John D. Cunningham Before the availability of satellite sounding data, useful forecasts for the Southern Hemisphere were limited to data rich areas such as New Zealand and Australia and these were limited to very short range (i.e., < 2 days). Today Southern Hemisphere forecasts have about the same scale and useful range as Northern Hemisphere forecasts, primarily the result of the global satellite sounding system. G.A.Kelly (ECMWF) Satellite Soundings and Forecast Skill Courtesy Dr. Bill Smith

25. 25 NPOESS Program Overview John D. Cunningham Higher Spectral Resolution Soundings Data from atmospheric sounders provide the primary input to Numerical Weather Prediction models at Operational Processing Centers Current fidelity NPOESS fidelity More Channels Better Soundings Radiances and Temperature & Moisture Profiles NPOESS will deliver higher spectral resolution soundings with improved data latency to initialize NWP models and improve weather forecasts

26. 26 NPOESS Program Overview John D. Cunningham Orders of magnitude increase in data volume from NPOESS will require commensurate increases in computational power for data assimilation and modeling How can we make best use of higher spatial and temporal resolution data through assimilation New methods will be required to take advantage of higher spectral resolution data from atmospheric sounders (CrIS, AIRS, and IASI) How can all the radiance information be used in NWP – as radiances or retrievals? How do we take advantage of improved data latency? More rapid update cycles through 4-dimensional data assimilation What is the impact of clouds on soundings? How do we use VIIRS for enhancing high vertical resolution CrIS retrieval reliability above clouds How can we use ATMS/CMIS for providing sub-cloud level profile information? NPOESS Challenges for NWP

27. 27 NPOESS Program Overview John D. Cunningham Five Order of Magnitude Increase in Satellite Data Over Next Ten Years Count (Millions) Daily Satellite Observation Count 2000199020102010-10%of obs 2002 100 M obs NPOESS Era Data Volume Courtesy Dr. Stephen Lord 2003 125 M obs

28. 28 NPOESS Program Overview John D. Cunningham Expected NPOESS Instrument Impact on NWS Forecast Performance Courtesy Dr. Stephen Lord InstrumentHurricaneSeasonal Temp Global 500mb Accuracy MarineAviationPrecip VIIRS SSNPPS CMIS SSNPSS CrIS SNNSSN ATMS PSPPPP OMPS NSNNNN SESS NNNNNN ADCS SPNPNN RADAR Altimeter SSNSNN P: Primary S: Secondary N: None

29. 29 NPOESS Program Overview John D. Cunningham