1. ENERGY 1 Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty Daniel Lerch, Program Director 8 May 2009 Gaining Ground Summit, Calgary

2. ENERGY 2 Post Carbon Cities guidebook 113 pages, $30.00 2 nd printing May 2008 www.postcarboncities.net The first major guidebook for local gov’t on peak oil and global warming. What are the challenges? Why should cities and towns act? What have some cities already done? What can local governments usefully do?

3. ENERGY 3 I. What’s happening? Demand is RISING......but Supply is LEVELLING, and will soon fall.  Developing world is rapidly industrializing (China, India)‏  Western world demand growth  The “easy oil” is gone  Logistical (financial) limits to what can ultimately be produced The fundamental factors of oil supply and demand are changing. I. What’s happening?

4. ENERGY 4 I. What’s happening? U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Overview 2006, p.64 The old assumptions no longer fit... 2008 July 10, 2008: $147/barrel 2008: $50-$60/barrel? May 2009: >$55/barrel

5. ENERGY 5 I. What’s happening?...which means we can no longer rely on the usual ‘experts'... http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/07/news/economy/cheap_oil/index.htm

6. ENERGY 6 I. What’s happening?...but fortunately, more and more leaders do see the problems ahead. http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=53040

7. ENERGY 7 I. What’s happening? A Summary of the Oil Situation (in four points) “Plateau” ? “Peak” ? Does it matter? II. The oil situation

8. ENERGY 8 II. The oil situation 1a. SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS: Conventional Oil

9. ENERGY 9 II. The oil situation 1b. SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS: Unconventional oil Conventional Oil Unconventional Oil Gap between ‘ Business-As-Usual Demand ‘ and projected Supply

10. ENERGY 10 II. The oil situation 2. DEMAND CONSTRAINTS: West keeps growing, East keeps modernizing (cc) Proggie/Flickr http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKL139687720080413

11. ENERGY 11 II. The oil situation 3. OVERDEPENDENCE “Oil makes it possible to transport food to the...megacities of the world. “Oil also provides the plastics and chemicals that are the bricks and mortar of contemporary civilization...” –Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power. 1991. Image credits clockwise from upper left: Tony Tremblay (istock), caribb (cc), sillydog (cc), IRRI Images (cc)

12. ENERGY 12 II. The oil situation 4. NO GOOD SUBSTITUTES There is nothing of comparable versatility and quantity ready to replace oil. BIOFUELS HYDROGEN NUCLEARCOAL

13. ENERGY 13 Higher Oil Prices + Oil Price / Supply Volatility III. The problem society faces What does this mean for the decisions we make? (as households, businesses, governments): Declining Supply + Rising Demand = III. The problem society faces

14. ENERGY 14 III. The problem society faces This complicates our assumptions that oil will continue to be......available......and affordable.

15. ENERGY 15 “Timely, aggressive mitigation...” What does this mean for government decision-makers?: III. The problem society faces At least “a decade of intense, expensive effort” Intervention by governments necessary because the economic & social implications “would otherwise be chaotic” Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management Prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy by Robert Hirsch, SAIC, et al, 2005

16. ENERGY 16 III. The problem society faces Peak oil... when? OCTOBER 2007, Post Carbon Cities: “...we seem to be facing an undulating plateau of world oil production from 2007 onward, with permanent decline likely underway by 2010.” OCTOBER 2008, Richard Heinberg’s blog: “Lack of investment in new production projects, plus ongoing depletion and rising decline rates, probably ensure that we’ve now seen the all-time peak. It was in July 2008.” http://postcarbon.org/wither_oil_prices

17. ENERGY 17 IV. The problem for cities Why is this a problem at the local level? (in three points) IV. The problem for cities

18. ENERGY 18 IV. The problem for cities 1. Price volatility of goods 2006 - 2007: “…higher fuel prices and energy costs; higher transportation costs…” Knoxville News Sentinel, 6 September 2006 The Oregonian, 25 January 2008

19. ENERGY 19 IV. The problem for cities 2. Potential for shortages and emergencies “... reported shortages.” “...airport ran out of fuel...” “...factories shut down...” The Guardian, 12 June 2008 The New York Times, 1 September 2005

20. ENERGY 20 IV. The problem for cities 3. Long-term economic shifts How will the global economy adjust? (global trade flows) How will this impact regional and local economies? (relative advantage; provisioning systems)

21. ENERGY 21 IV. The problem for cities  set meaningful budgets  make long-range land use and transportation plans  serve residents and the local business community...with such uncertainty surrounding the most important material to our global, regional and local economies? How can cities... “ Energy Uncertainty ”

22. CLIMATE 22 V. What’s happening? GHG concentrations are up dramatically, and RISING. The average global temperature is rising, with uncertain consequences.  Prior and continuning industrialization.  16 years since Earth Summit, little to show for it.  Local effects? Economic effects?  Trigger points? Feedback loops? Some of the fundamental factors that influence the global climate are changing. ? ? V. What’s happening?

23. CLIMATE 23 V. What’s happening? CAUSES: The debate is over... “For us, as a company, the scientific debate about climate change is over. The debate now is about what we can do about it.” - Jeroen van der Veer, Chief Executive, Shell http://www.shell.com/home/content/responsible_energy

24. CLIMATE 24 V. What’s happening? URGENCY:...changes are already happening...

25. CLIMATE 25 450 550 500 400 GOAL: Avoid 2°C above 1990 levels V. What’s happening? 450 ppm 550 ppm 350 ppm * ~387 ppm NOW URGENCY:...and we have less than 8 years to get emissions in decline.

26. CLIMATE 26 VI. Why is this a problem for cities? Short-term challenges Long-term challenges Dependency “ Climate Uncertainty ” Economic, social, environmental... VI. Why is this a problem for cities?

27. CLIMATE 27 VI. Why is this a problem for cities? Why is this a problem for cities? Short-term challenges Long-term challenges Dependency Why is this a problem at the local level? “ Climate Uncertainty ” Economic, social, environmental... Price volatility of goods Potential for emergencies (unexpected price changes, occasional shortages)‏ PEAK OIL Long-term challenges (how will global, regional and local economies respond? how can municipalities budget and plan?)‏ 1. Supply Constraints 2. Demand Constraints 3. Overdependence 4. No Substitutes WHAT’S THE ISSUE? WHY IS THIS A PROBLEM? Dependence on global ecosystem Short-term challenges (dealing with first effects)‏ GLOBAL WARMING Long-term challenges (long-term changes to climates and economies)‏ 2. We don’t know exactly how the global ecosystem will change in the long term. 1. We know that some effects are inevitable in the short term. WHAT’S THE ISSUE? WHY IS THIS A PROBLEM? The “Climate-Peak Convergence” “ Energy and Climate Uncertainty ”

28. CLIMATE 28

29. ENERGY 29 VII. What are cities already doing?

30. ENERGY 30 VII. What are cities already doing?

31. ENERGY 31 VII. What are cities already doing? Official Statement Marrickville, NSW Chapel Hill, N.C. Nottigham, U.K. Internal Report Burnaby, B.C. Darebin, Vc. Maribyrnong, Vic.

32. ENERGY 32 VII. What are cities already doing? Portland, Ore. Oakland, Calif. Bloomington, Ind. Resolution which creates......a Task Force. San Francisco, Calif. Austin, Tex. Brisbane, QLD Spokane, Wash. Bristol, U.K. Alachua Cty., Fla Bellingham, Wash. Lawrence, Kan. Westerly, R.I.

33. ENERGY 33 VII. What are cities already doing? Portland (Ore.) Peak Oil Task Force 12 members vetted by City Council Split up into four subgroups: In 6 months, meetings with over 80 stakeholders Land Use / Transportation Economy Public and Social Services Food & Agriculture

34. ENERGY 34 VII. What are cities already doing?

35. ENERGY 35 VII. What are cities already doing? “Descending the Oil Peak: Navigating the Transition from Oil and Natural Gas,” Portland (Oregon) Peak Oil Task Force, March 2007; online at www.portlandonline.com/osd.

36. ENERGY 36 VII. What are cities already doing? Two Pillars and 11 Recommendations Impacts and Vulnerabilities Land Use / Transportation Economy Public and Social Services Food & Agriculture Reduce Exposure Strengthen Community

37. ENERGY 37 VII. What are cities already doing? 1. Reduce total oil and natural gas consumption... by 50 percent over the next 25 years. 2, 3. Educate and engage the public and leaders Inform citizens about peak oil and foster community and community-based solutions. Educate and engage business, government and community leaders to initiate policy change. Recommendations of the Portland Peak Oil Task Force Reduce Exposure Strengthen Community

38. ENERGY 38 Reduce Exposure Strengthen Community VII. What are cities already doing? 4.Land use and transportation connection: Support land use patterns that reduce transportation needs... 5, 6.Transportation infrastructure and choices: Design infrastructure to promote transportation options and facilitate efficient movement of freight... (cc) dmkphotography / Flickr

39. ENERGY 39 Reduce Exposure Strengthen Community VII. What are cities already doing? 7. Energy-efficient buildings: Expand building energy-efficiency programs and incentives for all new and existing structures. 8.Farmland and food: Preserve farmland and expand local food production and processing. 9. The Green Economy: Identify and promote sustainable business opportunities.

40. ENERGY 40 Reduce Exposure Strengthen Community VII. What are cities already doing? 10.Social safety net: Redesign the safety net and protect vulnerable and marginalized populations. 11.Emergency Planning: Prepare emergency plans for sudden and severe shortages. Andrew Zahn, www.poex.orgwww.poex.org

41. ENERGY 41 VII. What are cities already doing? What had Portland BEEN doing? Most green buildings in US (LEED) Highest per capita hybrid auto ownership in US Transit ridership up 85% Bike trips over bridges quintupled Vehicle miles traveled decreased 7% per capita Gasoline sales down 13% per capita Household energy down 5% per capita City energy-efficiency projects saving $2.6M/yr Recycling rate more than tripled Portland Office of Sustainable Development

42. ENERGY 42 VII. What are cities already doing? Portland 2010 Goal: 10% below 1990 levels Emissions level required to avoid severe climate disruption 2032 Goal: 50% reduction in fossil fuels Portland Office of Sustainable Development

43. ENERGY 43 The post carbon city is a city on a path of resilience for a world of energy & climate uncertainty. The goal: VIII. Getting to the post carbon city How do we get there?

44. ENERGY 44 VIII. Getting to the post carbon city The “Five Long-term Principles”

45. ENERGY 45 VIII. Getting to the post carbon city 1. Deal with transportation and land use (or you may as well stop now).

46. ENERGY 46 VIII. Getting to the post carbon city 1. Deal with transportation and land use (or you may as well stop now). continued...

47. ENERGY 47 VIII. Getting to the post carbon city 2.Tackle private energy consumption. Zero-energy housing, Germany

48. ENERGY 48 VIII. Getting to the post carbon city 3.Attack the problems piece-by-piece and from many angles.

49. ENERGY 49 VIII. Getting to the post carbon city 4.Plan for fundamental changes... and make fundamental changes happen. (cc) citizenhelder / flickr (cc) Robert Whitlock / flickr

50. ENERGY 50 VIII. Getting to the post carbon city 5.Build a sense of community (build social resilience).

51. ENERGY 51 VIII. Getting to the post carbon city 5.Build a sense of community (build social resilience).

52. ENERGY 52

53. ENERGY 53 Post Carbon Cities book and programDaniel Lerch, Program Director www.postcarboncities.netdaniel@postcarbon.org $30.00 USD / CAD Quantity discounts available