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2015/6/21 Development of Emissions Scenarios Database for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and Regional Mitigation Analysis - A Review of Post-SRES Scenarios.

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Presentation on theme: "2015/6/21 Development of Emissions Scenarios Database for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and Regional Mitigation Analysis - A Review of Post-SRES Scenarios."— Presentation transcript:

1 2015/6/21 Development of Emissions Scenarios Database for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and Regional Mitigation Analysis - A Review of Post-SRES Scenarios - International Energy Workshop 2005 5-7, July 2005 National Institute for Environmental Studies Tatsuya HANAOKA ・ Mikiko KAINUMA Kyoto University Reina KAWASE ・ Yuzuru MATSUOKA

2 2015/6/22 Overview 1.Background and Previous Work 2.Outline of Emissions Scenarios Database 3.Development of Emissions Scenarios Database 4.Quantitative Analysis. 5.Conclusions and Future Work

3 2015/6/23 Emissions scenarios vary depending on various socio-economic development pathways Morita and Matsuoka started to develop emissions scenarios database since 1992, to contribute for IPCC Assessment Background and Previous Work Background: ◆ Nakicenovic, and Morita et al (1998) 428 scenarios of global and regional GHG emissions from 176 literature sources ◆ Rana, and Morita (2000) 75 scenarios of global and regional GHG emissions from 25 literature sources Previous results of the Database: utilized for SRES utilized for TAR

4 2015/6/24 Outline of Emissions Scenarios Database ① http://www-cger.nies.go.jp/cger-e/db/enterprise/scenario/scenario_index_e.html CategoryExample inventory Driving ForcePopulation, GDP, … EnergyOil, Coal, Gas, … Emission SOx, NOx CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, SOx, NOx … OthersEnergy Intensity, Carbon Intensity, Temperature Change, Sea Level Rise, …

5 2015/6/25 Outline of Emissions Scenarios Database ② Data Source Number of data source Data source reviewed by IPCC SAR etc. 40 Data source described in the scientific literatures and conferences such as EMF, IEW etc. 125 Data source reviewed by SRES process and Post- SRES process 41 Data source of national scenarios described in National Communication submitted to UNFCCC 45 Data source in the current database ◆ Data source in the current database

6 2015/6/26 Scope of Work Update the current Emissions Scenarios Database ◆ Update the current Emissions Scenarios Database Analyze various new mitigation scenarios since TAR. ◆ Analyze various new mitigation scenarios since TAR. Contribute for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

7 2015/6/27 Development of Database Subject matter: New mitigation scenarios since TAR ● Subject matter: New mitigation scenarios since TAR ● Regional scale: Global, regional and national level analysis ● Regional scale: Global, regional and national level analysis ● Temporal scale: Scenarios with horizons beyond 2030 ● Temporal scale: Scenarios with horizons beyond 2030 ● Gas classifications: all anthropogenic GHGs ● Gas classifications: all anthropogenic GHGs CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs, PFCs, SF 6, CO, NMVOC, SOx, NOx and Black Carbon etc ● Sector classifications: Multi-sector scenarios ● Sector classifications: Multi-sector scenarios Outline of scenarios of interest: “ Call for Scenarios ” was sent to more than one hundred researchers all over the world

8 2015/6/28 Outline of the updated Database Geographical coverage Data source Multiregional global scenario 42188 Single global scenario 835 Single & multinational regional scenario 418 National scenario 729 CategoryExample inventory Driving ForcePopulation, GDP EnergyOil, Coal, Gas, Nuclear, Renewable, … EmissionCO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, HFCs, PFCs, SF 6, SOx, NOx, … OthersEnergy Intensity, Carbon Intensity, Temperature Change, Sea Level Rise, Carbon Tax, CCS… Data source in the updated database ◆ Data source in the updated database Data objective ◆ Data objective

9 2015/6/29 Representative Regional Aggregations SRES4SRES9AR13Description REFREF FSU Former Soviet Union EEU Eastern Europe OECD90 WEUWEUOECD-Europe NAM CANCanada USAUSA PAO ANZ Australia, New Zealand JPNJapan ASIA SPA PAS Other Pacific Asia SAS South Asia CPACPA Centrally planned Asia and China ALM MEAMEA Middle East and North Africa AFRAFR Sub-Saharan Africa LAMLAM Latin America and the Caribbean

10 2015/6/210 Global CO 2 emission changes from baseline

11 2015/6/211 Total CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O emission changes from baseline in 2100

12 2015/6/212 Evaluation Method: the Kaya identity C : Net CO2 emission including CO2 capture and storage. Cs : Fossil&industrial CO2 emission. Ep : primary energy consumption. A : economic activity. S : the ratio of net CO2 emission to generated CO2 emission. i : carbon intensity (the ratio of generated CO2 emissions to primary energy consumption). e : energy intensity (the ratio of total primary energy consumption to economic activity).

13 2015/6/213 GDP growth & Energy Intensity Improvement under 550 ppmv Stabilization Scenarios (a)Annual rate from 2000 – 2050(b)Annual rate from 2000 – 2100

14 2015/6/214 GDP growth & Carbon Intensity Reduction under 550 ppmv Stabilization Scenarios (a)Annual rate from 2000 – 2050(b)Annual rate from 2000 – 2100

15 2015/6/215 Carbon Intensity & Energy Intensity under 550 ppmv Stabilization Scenarios (a)Annual rate from 2000 – 2050(b)Annual rate from 2000 – 2100

16 2015/6/216 Carbon Tax & Regional CO2 mitigation rate (a) Case in 2050(b) Case in 2100

17 2015/6/217 Cost of CO2 abatement relative to baseline projection (a) Case in 2050(b) Case in 2100

18 2015/6/218 Conclusions The development of the Emissions Scenarios Database would contribute to the understanding of future GHG emissions scenarios and can provide important insights for policy analysis. By updating the Database, it becomes available to analyze various new mitigation scenarios since TAR at the regional level as well as the global level

19 2015/6/219 Future Work This study is in an intermediate stage and there is scope for further refinement. ◆ ◆ contact as many researchers as possible in the collect and clarify more detailed data world and collect and clarify more detailed data ◆ ◆ collect more data from regional or national analyze emission reduction factors scenarios and analyze emission reduction factors in detail at the sub-regional and national levels in detail at the sub-regional and national levels ◆ pay attention to reduction measures for non-CO2 emissions emissions such as CH4, N2O, F gases etc

20 2015/6/220 Special Thanks for Researchers’ cooperation in this Database & Call for Scenarios Please visit http://www-cger.nies.go.jp/cger- e/db/enterprise/scenario/scenario_index_e.html Or Contact: hanaoka@nies.go.jp

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