1. Carly Jerla Bureau of Reclamation Michael Hayes National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln Risk Assessment Scoping Workshop for the Upper Colorado River Basin NIDIS Pilot

2. Components of Successful Drought Mitigation Plans Monitoring, early warning, and prediction Foundation of a drought mitigation plan Indices/indicators linked to impacts and triggers Risk and impact assessment Who and what is at risk and why? Mitigation and response Programs and actions to reduce future drought impacts Programs and actions during drought events Most drought plans contain only the monitoring and response components.

3. Risk Assessment Purpose To identify those sectors, population groups, or regions most at risk from drought, most probable impacts, and mitigation actions that will reduce impacts to future events.

4. Western Drought Coordination Council How to Reduce Drought Risk Preparedness and Mitigation Working Group March 1998 Principal Authors: Cody Knutson, National Drought Mitigation Center Mike Hayes, National Drought Mitigation Center Tom Phillips, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation http://drought.unl.edu/handbook/risk.pdf

5. Components of Drought Risk Assessment (social factors)(natural event) Where does the water come from? Who uses the water?

6. Hazard Assessment (Understanding Drought Characteristics) Review of all available climate resources Historical analyses: frequency, intensity, duration, spatial extent Temporal trends Review available natural resources Streamflow, reservoirs, stock tanks, groundwater, etc… Water use characteristics

7. Vulnerability Assessment Impact Assessment Social Environmental Economic Causal Assessment Temporal Trends

8. Impact Assessment Subcommittees Colorado Municipal Water Wildfire Protection Agricultural Industry Tourism Wildlife Economic Impacts Energy Loss Health

9. Impact Assessment Subcommittees Nebraska Agriculture, Natural Resources, and Wildlife Municipal Water Supply, Health, and Energy New Mexico Agriculture Drinking Water, Health, and Energy Wildlife and Wildfire Tourism and Economic Impact

10. Impact Assessment Subcommittees Hopi Nation Range and Livestock Agriculture Village Water Supplies Environmental Health

11. Challenges Risk: not all impacts are equal

12. Vulnerability to Agricultural Drought: State of Nebraska LEGEND Water, Urban, Forest, Wetland Low Low-to-Moderate Moderate High vulnerability Albers Equal Area Projection, NAD 27 Spatial Resolution: 200 m

13. Risk and Impact Lessons Stakeholders Reduces conflicts between water users Promotes support Helps identify areas, people, sectors at risk Vulnerability Dynamic (shifts with time) Look Back and Look Ahead Identify particular baselines Triggers for decision-making