1. Monash University – ACER CENTRE FOR THE ECONOMICS OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING Indigenous students and completion of Year 12 Michael Long CEET’s 13 th Annual Conference Education and training in an era of economic uncertainty 30 October 2008 Ascot House, Ascot Vale, Melbourne

2. Introduction  Change of topic  Emerges from ♦Work on how young Indigenous people are faring ♦Work for Monash University on Indigenous participation in higher education ♦Work on transitions of Indigenous youth from school to work  An interesting story ♦A story of progress ♦A bit about policy ♦A bit about measurement and methodology

3. The “closing the gap” agenda ♦closing the life expectancy gap within a generation; ♦halving the gap in mortality rates for Indigenous children under five within a decade; ♦ensuring all Indigenous four years olds in remote communities have access to early childhood education within five years; ♦halving the gap for Indigenous students in reading, writing and numeracy within a decade; ♦halving the gap for Indigenous students in Year 12 attainment or equivalent attainment rates by 2020; and ♦halving the gap in employment outcomes between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians within a decade. National Indigenous Reform Agreement, COAG, 2009.

4. Data for research on Indigenous Australians  Small proportion of population  High non-response to Indigenous questions  Difficult to contact  Reliability & validity of responses potentially poor  Willingness to self-identify increases over- time

5. Data for research on Indigenous Australians  Leads to ‘experimental’ estimates eg Census count 454,799 Vs 517,043 estimate.  eg Revision of estimates of life expectancy  67.2 years Vs 78.7 (males)  72.9 years Vs 82.6 (females) Previously 59.4 and 64.8 years. Not due to ‘improvement’ but estimation.

6. Data for research on Indigenous Australians  The Census of Population and Housing  Administrative collections  DEEWR Higher Education Student Collection  NCVER VET Provider Collection  MCEECDYA National Schools Statistics Collection  Targeted surveys  ABS National ATSI Health Survey, 2004-05.

7. Key performance measures 1. The proportion of 20-24 year-olds having attained at least a Year 12 or equivalent or AQF Certificate II. (Source: ABS Census; Baseline: 2006 Census) 2. Apparent secondary school retention rates from Year 7/8 to: a) Year 10 b) Year 12 (Source: MCEECDYA NSSC; Baseline: 2008) 3. Attendance rates - Year 1 to Year 10 Source: MCEETYA collation of jurisdictional administrative data; Baseline 2008 or 2007)

8. Problems with apparent Year 12 completion rates O Some young people never enrol in secondary school. O Some enrolled students are classified as ‘ungraded’. O Movement between jurisdictions/school sectors affects jurisdiction or sector-specific estimates. O Some students begin their schooling in Australia after Year 7 while others leave Australia before commencing Year 12. O Students repeat Year 12. O Students repeat grades between Years 7 and Year 12. O Estimates based on enrolment in Year 12 in August of the school year which is not Year 12 completion/certification. O Year 12 can be completed outside the school sector. O Adults completing Year 12 in school can be excluded. O The estimates are for full-time students only.

9. Apparent Year 12 retention by Indigenous status 1998-2008, Australia

10. Indigenous apparent Year 12 retention by state, 2008

11. Growth in Indigenous apparent Year 12 retention by state, 1998 to 2008 (percentage points)

12. Closing the gap in apparent Year 12 retention by state, 1998 to 2008

13. Closing the gap in Year 12 participation by state, 1998 to 2008

14. The arithmetic of halving the gap 1. Assume that apparent Year 12 retention of non-Indigenous Australians increases from 73.9% to 78.8%. 2. The gap in retention between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians is 28.1 percentage points in 2008. 3. The goal is therefore to increase Indigenous Year 12 retention to 64.7% (78.8%-14.1%) by 2020. 4. Given that the 2008 value for Indigenous retention is 45.8%, the required growth in Indigenous retention is 18.9 percentage points. 5. Growth between 1998 and 2008 was 14.0 percentage points. 6. But there are two extra years in which to achieve the goal.

15. Concluding comments 1. Substantial improvement in school completion among Indigenous students between about 1996 and 2008 (with improvement stronger in the last few years). 2. The gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous students in terms of Year 12 retention and participation has narrowed substantially. 3. The narrowing of the gap 1998-2008 has been greatest in WA, Qld and SA. 4. Achieving the goal of halving the difference between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Year 12 retention might not be such a courageous goal—it requires only a little more improvement in Indigenous Year 12 retention between 2008 and 2020 than was achieved between 1998 and 2008.

16. Thank you See Long M, 2009. How young Indigenous people are faring, DSF, Sydney. www.dsf.org.au/resources/detail/?id=139  and also www.education.monash.edu.au/centres/ceet